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GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra will be in Codex

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Re: GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra will be in Codex

#111
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

oops

The source is the GPT 5.5 System Card: > We generally treat GPT-5.5’s safety results as strong proxies for GPT-5.5 Pro, which is the same underlying model using a setting that makes use of parallel test time compute. As noted below, we separately evaluate GPT-5.5 Pro in certain cases because we judge that the setting could materially impact the relevant risks or appropriate safeguards posture. https://deploymentsafet…

> makes use of parallel test time compute

Any idea what that means exactly? I vaguely remember that ChatGPT Pro was originally called "deep thought", just like Geminis "deep thought" feature (or "deep think"?), so it seems likely they are using the same approach.

Re: GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra will be in Codex

#112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

implode, how?

They're in a price war with the People's Republic of China running flat out with the full backing of a government that literally does not care if they ever see a financial return on the investment, they just want to drive the value of LLM training and inference to zero because we banked the market on it being arbitrarily high margin forever. China was like hold my beer. They have a staggering surplus of grid capacity…

>full backing of a government that literally does not care if they ever see a financial return on the investment

There's no evidence of this, the parsimonious explanation is PRC AI, by virtue of being sanctioned, simply is not able to run magnitude more expensive compute model, and even if they could, they don't have the $$$ or market cap to do so. So they optimize and involute margins like they do in everything, and US misallocated expensive flops because the entire industry has been financially engineered for phat margins along the entire producer supply chain is just cherry on cake. Like wipe out the 50%+ margins from toolmakers, fabs, gpu/memory/data center components to some reasonable level and US is overpaying for tokens by a stupid multiplier on top of actual compute misallocation due to incompetent infra. Maybe PRC AI has unsound economics, but it's structurally simply not able to misallocate as much as US who will find a way to financialize compute to point of absurdity.

Re: GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra will be in Codex

#113
post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if clues like this will be what are written in history books as the beginning of the bubble bursting.

I don't think that people relying on the tools too much is the first sign I would identify to mean the bubble is popping

The market is priced at expecting AGI levels of breakthroughs. Just a very useful tool for programming is definitely not enough to keep the music playing.

Re: GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra will be in Codex

#114

I'm working in large US corporation. And I see that I already have access to 5.6-Sol Ultra on my corporate account. I haven't really used it yet. 2 months ago management was showing us scoreboards, praising leaders who used most tokens. Last few weeks, we're getting weekly emails, telling us that whenever we can - we should use cheaper models, and that we should watch the page which shows our tokens usage.

> 2 months ago management was showing us scoreboards, praising leaders who used most tokens.

Everyone is insane.

Re: GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra will be in Codex

#115

I wonder if it's related that that OpenAI has found a way to cut inference costs by half, according to The Information. https://www.theinformation.com/newsletters/ai-agenda/openai-...

https://archive.ph/NEwVz "However, these inference optimizations, which rival Anthropic refers to as “compute multipliers,” are a big focus for all the labs. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has been publicly talking about the concept since at least mid-2023, when he said on a podcast that the company limits “the number of people who are aware of a given compute multiplier” because it could give other AI labs a leg up if t…

> the company limits “the number of people who are aware of a given compute multiplier” because it could give other AI labs a leg up if they were to be able to replicate them.

I wonder if that makes sense if the orgs within the industry are starting to shift their mindset towards "Tokens are expensive, we should use AI less." which feels like an existential threat to the status quo, if those AI providers can't find ways to keep costs affordable for their clients. Otherwise those orgs would just be using GLM 5.2 or DeepSeek V4 Pro but it seems like what they're doing instead is trying to use AI just less, period.

Re: GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra will be in Codex

#116

I'm working in large US corporation. And I see that I already have access to 5.6-Sol Ultra on my corporate account. I haven't really used it yet. 2 months ago management was showing us scoreboards, praising leaders who used most tokens. Last few weeks, we're getting weekly emails, telling us that whenever we can - we should use cheaper models, and that we should watch the page which shows our tokens usage.

Are corporate employees not allowed to use personal subscriptions?

Re: GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra will be in Codex

#117
post #116

I'm working in large US corporation. And I see that I already have access to 5.6-Sol Ultra on my corporate account. I haven't really used it yet. 2 months ago management was showing us scoreboards, praising leaders who used most tokens. Last few weeks, we're getting weekly emails, telling us that whenever we can - we should use cheaper models, and that we should watch the page which shows our tokens usage.

Are corporate employees not allowed to use personal subscriptions?

Generally not, since the corporate account has all the privacy knobs turned up. I use my personal account on my open source projects, where code leaks aren’t exactly an issue.

Re: GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra will be in Codex

#118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> He sure did seem to speed run the 'tech leader with scruples' to 'tech villain' path! What kind of rosy-eyed chump believes in the "tech leader with scruples" bullshit? It always lies. Did some people just ignore Mark Zuckerberg and Tim Cook's sociopathy, somehow? Did anyone buy into their "privacy is a human right" nonsense?

I find this kind of cynicism fascinating tbh. On the one hand, it seems so relatable in some ways, because there is something uncomfortable about being seen as naive, in a way that being seen as cynical or negative doesn't seem to carry. I guess it's just self-protective, almost like some kind of perverse Pascal's wager: it's better to think everyone is horrible and be wrong than to think the opposite and be taken ad…

For these particular characters, the evidence is heavily against your panglossian take.

All have collaborated with the current US regime. All have shown signs of being quite willing to compromise their principles in order to make money.

Re: GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra will be in Codex

#119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it as good as Fable..? Fable is the first model that mostly writes without the AI slop format for me, and so I can comfortably actually copy and paste most of what it spits out. OpenAI models have always been the worst in my experience for verbose, slop formatted responses, with each generation increasing in sloppiness.

> Fable is the first model that mostly writes without the AI slop format for me I'm not that impressed by Fable's writing to be honest, still has the AI giveaways like em dash.

The em-dash is not a "AI giveaway", it's just correct writing. Actual AI giveaways are in the writing style itself.

Re: GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra will be in Codex

#120

I wonder if it's related that that OpenAI has found a way to cut inference costs by half, according to The Information. https://www.theinformation.com/newsletters/ai-agenda/openai-...

Semi-related, has anyone noticed their GPT 5.5 usage in Codex being cut in half as of a couple days ago? I got a lot more mileage out of my session usage yesterday for the same workload.

I've noticed less quota and 5.5 intelligence degrading. I didn't run the analysis like the post the other day, but I had noticed decreasing ability to complete tasks, more laziness. Switched back to 5.4 and it's much better. Maybe they're getting ready to launch 5.6?

https://github.com/openai/codex/issues/30364

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