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GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra will be in Codex

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Re: GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra will be in Codex

#51
post #23
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I tried a pro model out the other day and thought there must have been a bug in Pi’s cost calculations. But no, it’s absolutely fucking insane. Wasn’t even any better at the task.

I really suspect that the models are basically the same below, it’s all in the prompt. The way I use them, surgically, they seem to perform about the same. Fable certainly hasn’t blow my socks off.

> Fable certainly hasn’t blow my socks off.

Same. I suspect they'll get better at taking in terrible prompts over time though... Maybe that's what Fable does better, reminds me of Sora 2, it would take my crappy prompt and expound upon it. I told it once to generate a video of someone working at some company that changed its name, but the old name had historic relevance, it referred to the new company name without me telling it to, by virtue of me wanting a video of TODAY with a 90s icon.

Re: GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra will be in Codex

#56

I wonder if it's related that that OpenAI has found a way to cut inference costs by half, according to The Information. https://www.theinformation.com/newsletters/ai-agenda/openai-...

https://archive.ph/NEwVz "However, these inference optimizations, which rival Anthropic refers to as “compute multipliers,” are a big focus for all the labs. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has been publicly talking about the concept since at least mid-2023, when he said on a podcast that the company limits “the number of people who are aware of a given compute multiplier” because it could give other AI labs a leg up if t…

Dario tells the truth. If you look at everything through their safe AGI mission it all makes sense. They are not bs'ing about that. Also I think most people just read headlines or 10 second clips and make false extrapolations from there.

(BTW Anthropic only exists because Sam Altman is a liar, Dario admitted this.)

Re: GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra will be in Codex

#57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would assume yes - their goal is to capture consumer subscribers. Claude are going to take Fable away, and they're going to swoop in and give it to us.

This is why I don't think Fable will be taken away. Not for long anyway.

Still avialable through the API. According to people that have tried both Fable nad 5.6, Fable is clearly better at coding. So i expect a lot of people to pay extra for it.

Re: GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra will be in Codex

#58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have a source for this, or just rumors? The responses I get from pro don't feel like ensembles. They are often very one directional.

oops

The source is the GPT 5.5 System Card:

> We generally treat GPT-5.5’s safety results as strong proxies for GPT-5.5 Pro, which is the same underlying model using a setting that makes use of parallel test time compute. As noted below, we separately evaluate GPT-5.5 Pro in certain cases because we judge that the setting could materially impact the relevant risks or appropriate safeguards posture.

https://deploymentsafety.openai.com/gpt-5-5/model-data-and-t...

There have been multiple podcasts with people from OpenAI which have confirmed this.

Re: GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra will be in Codex

#59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://archive.ph/NEwVz "However, these inference optimizations, which rival Anthropic refers to as “compute multipliers,” are a big focus for all the labs. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has been publicly talking about the concept since at least mid-2023, when he said on a podcast that the company limits “the number of people who are aware of a given compute multiplier” because it could give other AI labs a leg up if t…

> He sure did seem to speed run the 'tech leader with scruples' to 'tech villain' path! What kind of rosy-eyed chump believes in the "tech leader with scruples" bullshit? It always lies. Did some people just ignore Mark Zuckerberg and Tim Cook's sociopathy, somehow? Did anyone buy into their "privacy is a human right" nonsense?

[dead]

Re: GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra will be in Codex

#60

I still don't know why OpenAI doesn't put gpt-5.5-pro in Codex. It's one hell of a model and easily parallels Fable/Mythos. Sure, it'll use up your quota much faster but that's the price some users are willing to pay for absolutely high quality responses. I think gpt-5.5-pro runs 12x parallel gpt-5.5 agents behind the scene and uses OpenAI's secret sauce to synthesize their answers into one insanely good response.

API pricing ends up being something like 20x more expensive for GPT 5.5 Pro than GPT 5.5 for actual work, even though the token cost is "only" 6x. On benchmarks where I've run both, I saw $1.12 mean per task with 5.5 and nearly $23 per task with 5.5 Pro, I guess it chews longer and harder on the problem.

If that's at all reflective of what it costs them to run it, I imagine they're in the same boat as Anthropic with Fable; they probably can't afford to offer it at subscription prices given current cost to operate it.

If 5.6 Sol Ultra has efficiency improvements (at one or more layers), and it allows OpenAI to offer a model that's competitive with Fable on the subscription plans, I'll guess a lot of folks will switch.

Fable is notably better than what came before. I watched it figure out stuff on its own over and over, on extremely hard problems, that I previously needed to guide a model to an understanding about, or work with them back and forth for several turns to figure it out together. Like, I've been reverse engineering a hardware device lately, and I've tried to tackle it a few times in the past with both some version of GPT and a couple of versions of Opus (most recently 4.7). In all cases, I barely made progress...would have gotten there eventually, probably, as I'm stubborn, but there were roadblocks constantly, with me and the models getting stumped and going around in circles in the end on every prior attempts.

Fable figured out other ways to find out what's happening, it dug into config files, found and extracted Boost-serialized data, compared that data to the observed behavior, built tools to compare the observed data with our emulated behavior, without being prompted. Would I have gotten there? Eventually, maybe. All prior models didn't; they mostly just tried the things I suggested and stopped at "well, that didn't work" or declared success after seeing results that matched their misunderstanding of the problem. I guess it's possible my prior attempts with other models had "loosened the lid" on the problem; we did already have a long list of documented "this didn't work" and a pile of tools for finding out if something worked. But, even so, I was impressed.

There probably will still be a "OK, let's rewrite this so it's not using lookup tables to precisely simulate the hardware behavior in software, because we don't need the noise, too" stage of the process...but, in one day with Fable, it solved a problem that I'd banged on for at least a week or too in the past with very little real progress. I don't think the models write exceedingly good code, even the best ones, but it sure does figure shit out quick.

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