Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

twitter.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

651–660 of 736 posts

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#651

Post by cjbgkagh »

slopinthebag wrote: post #639
cjbgkagh wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if the people getting 10x productivity gains are spending less time on HN and more time tending to their agents. Personally I now spend so much time productively arguing with agents that it feels like an utter waste of effort arguing with humans, if people can't see the value in LLMs by now I'm not sure what I could say to change their minds.

So you are accomplishing a year’s worth of work in a month? If that’s been happening for a few months, you must have a few years of work to show people right?

I actually do, I completely and elegantly solved a core problem of my niche industry that had been plaguing it for over 40 years. I was already planning on doing it and had put aside 4-6 months to do it. I did it with the help of AI in 3 days. The AI couldn't do it on it's own I had to walk it through the process piece by piece, and it kept trying to avoid doing as I asked by lying to me, so I kept chastising it. It eventually relented and it worked. There was a deep theoretical underpinning which I believe was beyond AIs ability to originate but once it understood what I was doing it was great at the mechanics of it. I've tried to explain similar ideas to humans with much less success.

Now I've massively expanded my scope and I'm still worried I'll run out of work by the end of the year. It's so much fun. Previously I would have to try to convince people with money to fund such applied research and often the strings they'd attach would doom it to failure. I was worried I would never have the resources to test out my ideas in my lifetime and I would die not knowing if they were any good, and since one of the big ones has already worked I'm pretty stoked.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#652

Post by jmartrican »

digitaltrees wrote: post #621

I am migrating my company to private open source AI and building custom tooling, orchestration, an IDE and harness around it. The commercial labs have show it’s far too risky to build on top of them. With the labs moving into the app layer every interaction with the API related to product development or innovation is data they will steal and use to compete against you by adding those features to their everything apps…

Sounds expensive

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#653

Post by surgical_fire »

WarmWash wrote: post #588
surgical_fire wrote: post #554

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Europe becoming more reliant on the Chinese is not the answer China should be dealt with as a normal country. There's no need for undue anxiety there. EU as a trade block should exercise reciprocity and protect its own interests accordingly though. As for LLMs, I see no issue in using Chinese models. With the talk of digital sovereignty, you can run open source models on EU datacenters without necessarily having to…

China is an authoritarian ethnostate with mock capitalism experiments. If you want to climb into Xi Jinpeng's garden where he has absolute uncontested unilateral control for life, well, be warned.

I want to climb nothing.

I said that the EU should have normal relations with China. It has no reason to inherit the US anxiety about China being a contender in the world stage.

Trade with it normally, do trade deals where it makes sense, use reciprocity and protectionism where it fits.

This should be pretty uncontroversial.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#654

Post by surgical_fire »

naim08 wrote: post #562
spacedcowboy wrote: post #553

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, this is not necessarily a problem for the EU. Some might say it's a goal. The USA is far more dangerous a "friend" than China is an acquaintance. China has not been threatening military annexation, China does not randomly start trade (or real) wars. China doesn't just turn away from international commitments. Bottom line: China is a far better international partner than the USA.

> taiwan? > hk? trade wars... have you actually looked at how china uses trade as political bargaining tool??? Look at how China treats Japan, south korea, etc

Eminently, none of those places are in Europe

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#655

Post by apitman »

bredren wrote: post #173
ebbi wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably didn't kiss ass as much as most other tech CEOs.

I presume this was one of the lowest points of Tim Cook’s career: https://youtu.be/kSAGUjY2HIs?is=my5VbCBB5Ku-MlLX

I was sure this was going to be a massive solid gold iPhone

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#656

Post by gazebo2 »

zrn900 wrote: post #620
aspenmartin wrote: post #491

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Definitely hasn’t backfired. Exporting would have just sped up their progress. Instead they had to get clever and lean into the bottleneck which for them, now, is compute efficiency. This is temporary and they’ll figure out competitive chip design and production but not for several more years. It’s incredibly hard to match the quality of NVidia and TSMC, as China has found throughout years of trying.

Nope. If China were not banned from US-controlled chips, it would be importing chips at much higher prices, therefore getting less bang for its buck while strengthening competitors with its money in the process. Instead, the US banned China from chips and lithography machines, giving China the legal excuse to start producing them domestically without violating WTO rules. Now China produces cheap chips and uses them w…

[dead]

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#657

Post by aspenmartin »

zrn900 wrote: post #617
aspenmartin wrote: post #488

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its like any other sanction, its designed to slow not stop

Slow? The chip ban was just a few years ago. The result? China is more or less self-sufficient in chips, about to catch up with the latest generation. They even banned China from using lithography machines. The result? China is now producing lithography machines that only few in the world could produce. Let's face it - all bans were dumb. They just gave China the legal (per WTO rules) justification to start producing…

They are still a few years away from parity. It's not that they _cannot_ train frontier models its that it costs 6x as much roughly, and thats ignoring the headaches and extra hoops they need to gather that compute. That is the entire point of export controls. Slow them down, make R&D more painful. The whole picture -- Chinese research now being best in the world for compute-efficient AI development, China aggressively pursuing independence in compute capabilities -- are all perfectly predictable and do not invalidate the point that export controls are doing their job.

Regardless of any export controls (or really anything else) China would be aggressively ramping up chip production capabilities as fast as they possibly could. Export controls maybe help slightly here but it's worth it. China will succeed too, but it takes time. China has been pursuing this for decades.

> Let's face it - all bans were dumb.

Predictably, this is oversimplifying.

> They just gave China the legal (per WTO rules) justification to start producing everything domestically.

It just doesn't matter, reliance on chips from an adversary is an untenable place to be. They don't need any legal excuses.

> he bans work as a reverse tariff, as a protectionist measure that actually protects your competitor.

Again untrue -- tariffs are devastating economically but BOTH the US and China want independence from another, it's just a very painful cost economically to do the divorce. It's far less efficient and horrifies economists but geopolitics is multifaceted.

> If China did those, others could bring China to court at the WTO. But the US did that, so nobody can sue China.

Hmmmmm would this really work? Would this have any meaningful impact whatsoever on their strategic initiatives? I highly doubt that.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#658

Post by Schiendelman »

hack1312 wrote: post #595
Schiendelman wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please stop being rude to me. I'm a human being, I'm a very experienced product manager and engineer (you can google my name, I'm the only one), and the way you are behaving sucks. Everything you're saying is true, sometimes. Assume I'm still right, and that you might be able to learn something from someone else.

There was nothing rude about any of their replies.

"If you are, in fact, a 'technical product manager'" is extremely rude.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#659

Post by Schiendelman »

slopinthebag wrote: post #637
Schiendelman wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please stop being rude to me. I'm a human being, I'm a very experienced product manager and engineer (you can google my name, I'm the only one), and the way you are behaving sucks. Everything you're saying is true, sometimes. Assume I'm still right, and that you might be able to learn something from someone else.

They weren’t rude enough. Your complete apathy towards the many antisocial effects of badly engineered software, caring only about increasing shareholder value, is the reason why modern software not only sucks but actively makes our lives worse to use it.

Interesting. So you believe that I don't think software quality affects the business?

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#660

Post by Schiendelman »

nomel wrote: post #216
Schiendelman wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a technical product manager, this 1000%. It's just irrelevant how bad code is unless it impacts the business.

This is something I wish I understood sooner. There is strong merit to "good enough". Of all the "concise" and "beautiful" code I worked hard to produce, I was the only one to ever lay eyes on it. It didn't actually matter, and nobody cared but me. The people in charge of my raises could never perceive quality of code, because it wasn't their area of expertise. They only cared (rightly so) that it did what it was sup…

Thank you! You also might appreciate this, which hit HN today: https://anatoliybabushka.com/blog/when-to-rewrite-working-co...
Post reply on HN