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Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

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Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#241
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Speed.

>> What concrete business advantage are you getting from LLMs? > Speed. Speed of what? Speed of understanding what needs to be done? I highly doubt it. Speed of LoC checked into git? Sure, I'll give you that. But one can use any number of tools to generate hundreds of thousands of lines of code. See any build tools which support specifications such as RAML, OpenAPI, CORBA, etc. So I ask again; speed of what?

In the time it took you to type that, your hourly market comp went down another basis point.

I am appalled none of this is clicking with you anti-AI folks. This is all so exciting -- alarming even! --, and software careers are never going to be the same.

I don't know how you just metaphorically stand there and act like nothing at all is happening. We've never seen anything like this in our entire lives.

Some of you are standing right in front of the steam roller, yelling to all of us that steam rollers aren't real.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#242
post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LLMs are still easily replaceable. If the SOTA frontier model provides meaningful impact for your critical business function, then worse case you flip the switch to the next most capable model.

Unequivocally false. Models have different behaviors, parameters, tool calling templates, etc. The providers publish extensive documentation on all of this. Yes, you can take the quick way and swap a model, but it will not run at its full potential until you adapt your workflows to it.

Or you can use universal harness that is not tied to a specific model (there are many available now, such as OpenCode, Pi..).

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#243

Fable 5 apparently can't be used for coding? (This is from Anthropic's announcement.) > After a series of productive conversations with the US government, we're redeploying the model with a new set of classifiers to target and block more cybersecurity tasks. In the near term, some routine tasks like coding and debugging will fall back to Opus 4.8. Edit: the above was from their tweet announcement at https://x.com/Ant…

> Fable 5 will be included for up to 50% of weekly usage limits through July 7, after which it will be available via usage credits.

> The new classifier also comes at the cost of flagging benign requests more often during routine coding and debugging tasks.

Here's Fable 5, the strongest model. Actually try to use it to harden your code and it turns into Opus 4.8. You have seven days to use it, and only half of that time's worth in actual usage. Enjoy.

Looks like it's going to be a thoroughly frustrating experience, even worse than initial rollout. For subscription users, the situation is almost indistinguishable from the export ban.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#244

Silly me for hoping they'd actually honor their original 14-day promise. Per their latest blog post, they've generously slashed the timeline to 7 days, but wait there's more! It's now limited to 50% of your weekly usage: > Fable 5 will be available starting tomorrow, Wednesday, July 1, to users globally... Fable 5 will be included for up to 50% of weekly usage limits through July 7, after which it will be available v…

Yeah, this seems a bit Scrooge-y after all the trouble which was essentially of their own making. I was expecting them to come back with a better deal as an apology, not a worse one.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#245
post #110
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You really think China doesn't have massive amounts of capital expenditure related to AI? They're actively bootstrapping an entire chip industry.... https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-prepares-295-billi...

Relatives vs absolutes. America will spend $500B and because of leaky pipes that's effectively 100B going directly to what's needed. China gets a lot of bang for their buck so even if they're spending a fraction of the US, they make it worth their money.

That's true for domestic labor and manufacturing, like shipbuilding, but the bleeding edge chips only come from one place and the US labs get the best while Chinese labs do not (unless they smuggle them). China gets creative, sure, but it can't overcome the fundamental issue that the US labs have more magic rocks that do math faster than their magic rocks. And the current state of the art is to just "do more math".

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> What concrete business advantage are you getting from LLMs? > Speed. Speed of what? Speed of understanding what needs to be done? I highly doubt it. Speed of LoC checked into git? Sure, I'll give you that. But one can use any number of tools to generate hundreds of thousands of lines of code. See any build tools which support specifications such as RAML, OpenAPI, CORBA, etc. So I ask again; speed of what?

In the time it took you to type that, your hourly market comp went down another basis point. I am appalled none of this is clicking with you anti-AI folks. This is all so exciting -- alarming even! --, and software careers are never going to be the same. I don't know how you just metaphorically stand there and act like nothing at all is happening. We've never seen anything like this in our entire lives. Some of you a…

Very very fast steam rollers.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> What concrete business advantage are you getting from LLMs? > Speed. Speed of what? Speed of understanding what needs to be done? I highly doubt it. Speed of LoC checked into git? Sure, I'll give you that. But one can use any number of tools to generate hundreds of thousands of lines of code. See any build tools which support specifications such as RAML, OpenAPI, CORBA, etc. So I ask again; speed of what?

In the time it took you to type that, your hourly market comp went down another basis point. I am appalled none of this is clicking with you anti-AI folks. This is all so exciting -- alarming even! --, and software careers are never going to be the same. I don't know how you just metaphorically stand there and act like nothing at all is happening. We've never seen anything like this in our entire lives. Some of you a…

Did you use an LLM to write this for you? How odd.

For all of you people who think these LLM models are “earth shattering” how the hell do you reconcile that it’s a net positive for anyone but those who want to consolidate knowledge and power.

We are really looking at idiocracy in the making.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As a technical product manager, this 1000%. It's just irrelevant how bad code is unless it impacts the business. If you are, in fact, "a technical product manager", I would hope you understand that "bad code" is identified as such specifically because it "impacts the business."

That is not how most engineers define bad code.

> That is not how most engineers define bad code.

The engineers I have worked with most definitely define "bad code" as having intrinsic limitations and/or latent defects which impact successful system functionality/operation. Indicators provided to stakeholders such as yourself which support this assessment are, but not limited to:

  - the system doesn't work that way
  - the system lacks test coverage, so changes take longer
  - adding feature "X" is not feasible
  - there is no repeatable way to onboard team members
  - the backlog grows exponentially
  - that "one point task" is going to take a couple weeks
All of the above impacts a business.

It is up to you, the "technical product manager", to understand what your team is trying to tell you.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#249
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Speed.

>> What concrete business advantage are you getting from LLMs? > Speed. Speed of what? Speed of understanding what needs to be done? I highly doubt it. Speed of LoC checked into git? Sure, I'll give you that. But one can use any number of tools to generate hundreds of thousands of lines of code. See any build tools which support specifications such as RAML, OpenAPI, CORBA, etc. So I ask again; speed of what?

I needed to deeply understand a code base I had no experience with in a language I don't normally use with what I would describe as haphazard documentation at best. You can't argue with the speed at which I gained the required understanding of the project.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#250

The real problem in all this is lack of predictability. The White House is just making it up as it goes along. Investors, customers don’t know what the process is and can’t plan. In the end, we need actual laws that tell the market what kinds of models get paused / analyzed, how long that pause can be, etc. Otherwise there’s no standard and it will be easily abused and prevent investment in US AI companies.

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