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Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

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Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#101

Post by cjbgkagh »

K0balt wrote: post #99
echelon wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Speed.

This x 10 . I don’t understand how people are saying you can’t use LLMs to get crazy productivity gains. If you can’t write quality code with LLMs at ludicrous speed, you’re holding it wrong. You will have occasional bad days and regressions. But overall you’re still going to be able to 4x your progress.

I wonder if the people getting 10x productivity gains are spending less time on HN and more time tending to their agents. Personally I now spend so much time productively arguing with agents that it feels like an utter waste of effort arguing with humans, if people can't see the value in LLMs by now I'm not sure what I could say to change their minds.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#102

Post by theptip »

afavour wrote: post #98
drevil-v2 wrote: post #29

The damage is done. You cannot build a business critical function on top of American SOTA frontier model. Especially not with the current crew in charge. Now whether AI tech is in the same league as say Nuclear tech and therefore by any reasonable standard should be regulated is a different question. We hit the slippery slope on a random day in June 2026 and there is no putting the genie back in the bottle. Any exec…

Wouldn’t you just have fallbacks? Today’s frontier models are just better than the other models, they don’t really have a ton of entirely unique abilities that can’t be replicated with more time and effort. So you use the frontier model, then when you can’t you accept things are less efficient. The alternative (right now) is to be less efficient all the time, I don’t see any advantage to that.

Yeah. It’s not the end of the world.

But, it is a big own goal, because once you invest in building evals for your internal use-case, 1) it’s easier to switch your model to whatever is cheapest, and 2) it’s way easier to fine-tune an oss model.

Evals are annoying to build and most companies were fine to rest on vibes. Now many companies have to do the work for insurance.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#103

Post by futureshock »

drevil-v2 wrote: post #29

The damage is done. You cannot build a business critical function on top of American SOTA frontier model. Especially not with the current crew in charge. Now whether AI tech is in the same league as say Nuclear tech and therefore by any reasonable standard should be regulated is a different question. We hit the slippery slope on a random day in June 2026 and there is no putting the genie back in the bottle. Any exec…

I think this is black and white thinking. Fable and US AI is not unique technology. It’s just marginally better than open source tech at 10 times the price. You can swap out the models at will, they are pretty much fungible. If your use case can pay for a best in class model then you will pay for it no matter the bogeymen. If your best in class model becomes unavailable, you switch to the next best model for a very minor performance degradation. I really doubt this will deter anyone from using American AI.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#104

Post by adrianmonk »

parodysbird wrote: post #63
Sammi wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm a small software business owner in Europe. I have to assume my competition is willing to pay for any business advantage they can get. And so I also have to pay for the SOTA model, whatever it is.

This is a great recipe for going out of business.

If the competitive risk is real, then are choosing between supplier risk (AI model access) and competitive risk.

When there isn't a zero-risk option, the question becomes which risk is smaller.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#105

Post by teleforce »

halfmatthalfcat wrote: post #93
parodysbird wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a great recipe for going out of business.

And thus, capitalism continues to roll on. Businesses are suppose to go out of business, its a feature.

Nearly spit out my coffee, thanks for the chuckle.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#106

Post by jknoepfler »

Almost as though they were indefensible bullshit to begin with. I wonder who extorted whom and for how much.

Like gee, that was fast. If this had any bearing on reality, one would imagine the vetting process would take actual time and that there would be a real, material difference between what we knew then and what we know now.

The cartoon bullshit theater is exhausting.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#107

Post by internet2000 »

drevil-v2 wrote: post #29

The damage is done. You cannot build a business critical function on top of American SOTA frontier model. Especially not with the current crew in charge. Now whether AI tech is in the same league as say Nuclear tech and therefore by any reasonable standard should be regulated is a different question. We hit the slippery slope on a random day in June 2026 and there is no putting the genie back in the bottle. Any exec…

> You cannot build a business critical function on top of American SOTA frontier model.

Yes I can!

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#109

Post by 0xy »

K0balt wrote: post #99
echelon wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Speed.

This x 10 . I don’t understand how people are saying you can’t use LLMs to get crazy productivity gains. If you can’t write quality code with LLMs at ludicrous speed, you’re holding it wrong. You will have occasional bad days and regressions. But overall you’re still going to be able to 4x your progress.

There's a small minority of people who are adamantly refusing to change, such as there are in every technological revolution. Ego prevents them from even wholeheartedly trying the tool, because it would be admission they were wrong.

The opportunities available for these people are rapidly, rapidly shrinking. I believe it's possible to be a developer today who's EXCEPTIONAL and never uses AI. Most opponents are not exceptional, though, and even these opportunities are shrinking.

Most exceptional developers in my org adopted AI in their workflows and went from 10x developers to 20x developers.

If you refuse to adapt, you're going to be out of a job complaining about the kids and their newfangled technology REAL quick. You have a few years remaining, maybe less.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#110

Post by xmprt »

kcb wrote: post #74
dzonga wrote: post #43

Chinese models brought the building down. are export controls the right thing ? Probably not. but the american economy is over-exposed on "A.I" - the capital expenditure, while the Chinese are proving you don't need to spend tons of capital to get close to the frontier. the Chinese have better building capacity & cheaper energy. that means the market has to correct at some point.

You really think China doesn't have massive amounts of capital expenditure related to AI? They're actively bootstrapping an entire chip industry.... https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-prepares-295-billi...

Relatives vs absolutes. America will spend $500B and because of leaky pipes that's effectively 100B going directly to what's needed. China gets a lot of bang for their buck so even if they're spending a fraction of the US, they make it worth their money.
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