Live data from Hacker News

Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

apollo.com

121–130 of 169 posts

Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

#121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apollo Group has $1T assets under management, I believe them over most folks on HN. Their argument that the Mag 7 is burning up all of their free cash flow is factually accurate, as the returns are not materializing for the investments being made (ie underperformance).

Vanguard has 12T under management so you believe any PDF they put out 12 times more?

I mean, I'd assume this deck was trying to sell something. But the relevant comparison is to stonk-bros on HN LARPing as hedge fund managers, not Vanguard.

Which, to be fair, Vanguard has earned a good deal of trust from me on the passive investment side of the equation, although I don't think it's meaningful to make it linearly proportional to the total size of their managed assets? I'm not even sure how I'd operationalize that in reality.

Having actual skin in the game on getting an answer right is generally a sign of credibility, though.

That said, without context I'm not really drawing any conclusions from this.

Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

#122

I am invested in some of the companies that are downstream of the capital expenditures of Big Tech (e.g., COHR), so I have nothing to complain about. I am really struggling to see what's the investment thesis behind Google valuation increasing 2x in response to AI, though. Assuming no magical AGI singularity, by the end of the day, they're still selling the same services, but the services have gotten more expensive f…

Google has a compelling story for many AI scenarios: it has lots of outs. It's the only frontier lab for which that's true. A massive bubble bursting wouldn't be existential for Google; it would be quite painful, but survivable, and even offers some potential upside (picking up assets and researchers from the wrecked, mangled corpses of other frontier labs on the cheap).

Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

#123
post #79

Historically stocks that had a good run then tended to underperform: > […] Since 1926, the median ten-year return on individual U.S. stocks relative to the broad equity market is –7.9%, underperforming by 0.82% per year. For stocks that have been among the top 20% performers over the previous five years, the median ten-year market-adjusted return falls to –17.8%, underperforming by 1.94% per year. Since the end of Wo…

> Historically stocks that had a good run then tended to underperform This is more of a mathematical axiom than a financial effect, because you're defining "underperform/overperform" with respect to an average that contains them.

> This is more of a mathematical axiom than a financial effect, because you're defining "underperform/overperform" with respect to an average that contains them.

Most stocks suck:

> We study long-run shareholder outcomes for over 64,000 global common stocks during the January 1990 to December 2020 period. We document that the majority, 55.2% of U.S. stocks and 57.4% of non-U.S. stocks, underperform one-month U.S. Treasury bills in terms of compound returns over the full sample. Focusing on aggregate shareholder outcomes, we find that the top-performing 2.4% of firms account for all of the $US 75.7 trillion in net global stock market wealth creation from 1990 to December 2020. Outside the US, 1.41% of firms account for the $US 30.7 trillion in net wealth creation.

* https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3710251

> Four out of every seven common stocks that have appeared in the CRSP database since 1926 have lifetime buy-and-hold returns less than one-month Treasuries. When stated in terms of lifetime dollar wealth creation, the best-performing four percent of listed companies explain the net gain for the entire U.S. stock market since 1926, as other stocks collectively matched Treasury bills. These results highlight the important role of positive skewness in the distribution of individual stock returns, attributable both to skewness in monthly returns and to the effects of compounding. The results help to explain why poorly-diversified active strategies most often underperform market averages.

* https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2900447

And this certainly can have a financial effect on your finances: having the "wrong" stocks in your portfolio (i.e., most of them) and not have the "correct" ones will mean a (e.g.) comfortable retirement or not.

Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

#124
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many people who replied to you seem to have missed your joke. I appreciated it.

It is my curse. Years ago, My daughter's science teacher said that school should teach a love of learning. I replied 'I thought the point of school was to make productive worker units in society' And while he explained to me why I was wrong I was thinking to myself 'great, now he thinks I'm a terrible person' It seems I deadpan too effectively.

Productive workers in society need to learn new things all the time. I can't think of any career that hasn't changed in my life. I recall a garbage man (sexism probably wasn't required even then, but I never recall females) hanging off the back of the truck while the driver drove to the next house - the driver today needs to know how to operate the arm on the truck that lifts my can. Fast food used to be cooked within 10 minutes of when it was thrown, now they obviously are keeping things warm for a lot longer.

Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

#126
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> Historically stocks that had a good run then tended to underperform >because you're defining "underperform/overperform" with respect to an average that contains them. Why is this true? For instance, if you're comparing the GDP growth of countries in the G7, why is it that one country (eg. US) can't consistently overperform year after year? https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank?... Or if you w…

Shouldn't you look at the YoY change instead, to compare to stock returns ? Otherwise that's like comparing market cap, and then it is obvious that a big company tends to stay big.

>Shouldn't you look at the YoY change instead, to compare to stock returns ?

This might work for the G7 case[1], but not the US vs DRC case, where it's an obvious case of sloping up vs sloping down. Granted, the case is contrived, but the original claim was that it was an "mathematical axiom", so it should still hold.

[1] though even in the G7 sample, you can find counterexamples. If you switch to "relative growth" you can clearly see that italy has lagging since the mid 2000s, with no accompanying faster-than-average growth to make up for it. If the claim is that "Historically stocks that had a good run then tended to underperform", then surely the opposite must also hold?

Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

#127
post #32

Apollo should be smart enough to know that you can't draw any conclusions from 1 month of market data (especially when there was a big, relevant IPO).

I'm astoundingly unimpressed by the quality of this slide deck. There's no analysis except that crammed into slide titles, like it's designed to bombard a room full of analysts with so many graphs that they shut off their critical thinking. Could a freshman business student not make this? Could a freshman business student with an LLM not make something more convincing than this? I agree with the headline, but this re…

I assumed it was accompanied by an oral presentation or another report. I didn't look around enough to see if there is a transcript or anything though.

Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

#128
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but when their run ends they tend to underperform. Every time.

If a stock market observation has no predictive power, then it's worthless. I look forward to your weather report too: "It's always sunny outside until one day it starts raining. Every time."

> I look forward to your weather report too: "It's always sunny outside until one day it starts raining. Every time."

I once ran across the comment that if you simply predict tomorrow's weather will be the same as today's you'd be correct 80% of the time. Not sure how true that is (can't find the source).

Allegedly momentum investing does pretty well:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Momentum_investing

(I'm more of an index guy myself.)

Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

#129

I am invested in some of the companies that are downstream of the capital expenditures of Big Tech (e.g., COHR), so I have nothing to complain about. I am really struggling to see what's the investment thesis behind Google valuation increasing 2x in response to AI, though. Assuming no magical AGI singularity, by the end of the day, they're still selling the same services, but the services have gotten more expensive f…

Google is a money printing machine, and their Q1 revenue and profit were up significantly vs last year.

Same for META

Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

#130

That free cash flow drop at AMZN is surprising.

yeah i was interested as well. -$2.5B from $11B last year. However the analysts see it recovering quickly. If you put all the Trainium(N) chip investments aside as being all AI risk, they still have some good pipeline with the satellite internet stuff (Delta, JetBlue, Vodaphone).
Post reply on HN