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Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

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Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#361
post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The live scammers targeting kids are pretty vile: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYTPI57GLac Seems like it's just a game of whack-a-mole, nothing is really being done to stop scammers from making new accounts and continuing their scams.

A lot of it is straight up sponsored by card makers too

Can you back this claim up? I don't think they need to do this. After all, WotC was doing pretty well way before these videos became widespread.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nicotine is probably the worst example possible to argue that laws prevent children from using and becoming addicted to something.

Why is it the worst example? Sure, the laws don't 100% prevent children from smoking, but certainly they have an effect. I'm not using it as an example of a perfectly effective law, I'm using it to make the point that it wouldn't be reasonable to say "parenting is the only defense against smoking" and scrap the law.

It's a bad example because the last 5+ years in UK/US have seen an epidemic of child vaping and nicotine addiction when it was illegal for them to have it, while the Tobacco companies fight tooth and nail against regulation on fruity flavours and bright colours.

I don't want to scrap laws. In Britain we're 20 years ahead of the US on this (see Gambling Act 2005). Gambling laws are written by the gambling industry so no parent should think that the law will do anything to help their child.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What if the site allows you to purchase a digital asset such as a CS2 skin which you can then immediately sell back to them at the same price you to get credits in your account to gamble?

That's fraud.

How is it different than if I buy a TV and sell it on Ebay and use the funds to gamble?

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#364

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are not evaluating those questions, you are evaluating the probability of that two things happening, and you need to evaluate it better than the other people to win. There are no easy questions, the difficulty is set by the skill/investment level of your competition.

I'm confused by how you're modeling these markets. Let's say I am quite sure that the Steam Machine will cost more than $700 dollars, and I buy a 'yes' lot for 65 cents on the payed-out dollar, those are the odds at my buy-in time. Where exactly now do the other participants' bets on the same market influence my chance to win/lose? How am I up against them and not the question "will my prediction come true"? Sure, be…

How exactly do you think the price is set at 65 cents, if not by the other market participants? When you win, who do you think is paying you out from the other side of the bet? When you lose, who do you think your money goes to?

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#365
post #93

Also, kids get scammed daily on YouTube on Pokemon card pulls with "loaded" packs and otherwise fake pulls for views.

The live scammers targeting kids are pretty vile: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYTPI57GLac Seems like it's just a game of whack-a-mole, nothing is really being done to stop scammers from making new accounts and continuing their scams.

[deleted]

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We used to debate things like the harms to society of gambling, now it’s a silent decree that it’s not only legal but the basis for our economy. The same group who used to preach family values turned out to be the biggest casino pimps and pornographers.

Meanwhile, small poker groups and gambling dens patronized by consenting adults routinely get busted.

"As they ought to, how dare they not give the system a cut"

-you know exactly the type I'm mocking

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

make this severely illegal with minimum two decades behind bars and what how they disappear… this is a very solvable problem which no one wants to solve

People have spend decades in prison for selling weed. Now it's legalized in more and more countries. Making things people like illegal rarely works, and it's far from a "solvable problem". Don't get me wrong, gambling is very bad, but if we were to analyze it statistically I think alcohol is way worse for society at large. And we all know how making alcohol illegal went.

These comparisons misunderstand, or perhaps underestimate, how markets work.

Demand for cannabis and alcohol is ubiquitous, strong.

Demand for each individual betting market, diminishingly rare.

Good luck finding the bookie at work or in your college class taking $10k in action on whether the Shah of Iran is still the Shah next week…

Banning the clearnet-based convenience, scale and breadth of market participants these services offer would immediately put a huge dent in most markets - non-sport especially.

Whether the black market and cryptocurrency-based sites outside of the clearnet would start to fill in, remains to be seen.

There has never been anything near the scale of Poly or Kalshi on “darkweb”.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#368
post #12

I finally gave in to my curiosity and downloaded Kalshi last week to place a few bets on the World Cup. I was blown away how easy it was. I placed a bet with real money within 5 minutes of downloading the app. They allow instant deposits with credit card, and ID verification was real time. I can’t imagine that the extreme accessibility and the typical dark patterns deployed by every popular app won’t eventually end b…

Key point though is that Kalshi and similar prediction market betting apps are parimutuel, unlike traditional sportsbooks/Draftkings etc where punters bet against the house. This greatly changes (improves) the incentives for the house, e.g. they don't ban sharks and search only for dumb money punters, they try much less to prevent you from leaving with your winnings etc. The parimutuel house just takes a flat rake percentage off the top of the sum of all bids, so they just want to maximize the amount of money wagered overall instead of doing shady shenanigans.

I'm not a prediction market user/booster nor a sports gambler, but this is a key difference and a strict improvement from traditional sportsbook apps. If our society is going to have widespread legal gambling, we strongly want it to be parimutuel.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#369

Earlier quoted context omitted.

WHAT and I have to stress IN THE ACTUAL FUCK

You see sins. Politicians see sin taxes, political will to spin up regulatory beurocracies, etc, etc.

> You see sins.

I can't speak for mastermage, but I don't see sins.

I see addictions, and vultures preying on them and actively profiting from exploiting their self-destruction.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#370
post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Legal weed has been a disaster in the US, 20 million addicted (almost daily use/daily use) versus a few million before it was banned.

You made that claim up. There was a study of Some 22 million people around the world being dependent on marijuana. You are severely overestimating US addicted people. What about this: that policy was huge success, because unlike gambling, weed is fairly harmless.

https://apnews.com/article/marijuana-cannabis-alcohol-use-di...

Close to 18 million in 2022, not exactly 20 million.

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