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Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

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Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#281

Post by jappgar »

walrus01 wrote: post #231
cj wrote: post #12

I finally gave in to my curiosity and downloaded Kalshi last week to place a few bets on the World Cup. I was blown away how easy it was. I placed a bet with real money within 5 minutes of downloading the app. They allow instant deposits with credit card, and ID verification was real time. I can’t imagine that the extreme accessibility and the typical dark patterns deployed by every popular app won’t eventually end b…

> They allow instant deposits with credit card This is my biggest takeaway, and I really wonder what payment processor(s) they're using, because the chargeback and fraud rate in filling 'real money' into an online gambling account using visa or mastercard must be through the roof. Exactly same reason why porn sites use their own specialist payment processors (alluded to in popular fiction in Industry season 4 recentl…

I'm assuming they pay high percentages to processors on deposits to cover the losses.

Then they recoup that (and more) in withdrawal fees

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#282

Post by boelboel »

TFNA wrote: post #275
expedition32 wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is time to admit that the Chinese were right when they built their great firewall. You either protect yourself from America or your civilization is lost to the void.

Online betting was huge in several other developed countries first. America got late to a trend. If anything, a Great Firewall in the USA would have protected it from the trend.

America banned international countries from winning the betting market to protect Vegas and casinos in general. Some sort of protectionism they said the war on Terror was the reason to ban it if I remember correctly(just after 9/11).

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#283

Post by actionfromafar »

Lio wrote: post #239
cj wrote: post #12

I finally gave in to my curiosity and downloaded Kalshi last week to place a few bets on the World Cup. I was blown away how easy it was. I placed a bet with real money within 5 minutes of downloading the app. They allow instant deposits with credit card, and ID verification was real time. I can’t imagine that the extreme accessibility and the typical dark patterns deployed by every popular app won’t eventually end b…

> It Ain’t What You Don’t Know That Gets You Into Trouble. It’s What You Know for Sure That Just Ain’t So. My worry is that social media surveillance could be combined with Polymarket to tailor bets to individuals. This could be very subtle. You don't really need your punters to always be wrong either. Meaning that sometimes they'd win at the expense of other punters with the illusion they can make money. You just ne…

Future of AI Fintech

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#284

Post by brookst »

fragmede wrote: post #280
fc417fc802 wrote: post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder what the chargeback and fraud rate actually is in practice given they do ID verification. Pretty difficult to claim you didn't make the purchase depending on what they collect.

because no one's ever had their wallet/purse with their ID in it stolen?

What percent of ID verifications do you think are from stolen wallets / purses?

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#285

Post by yehoshuapw »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #270
expedition32 wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With gambling you should always play for entertainment. If you play to win you've already lost.

Making paper airplanes from dollar bills, and setting their backs on fire to give them jet engines, is likely cheaper and more entertaining, so if you're gambling anyway, you've already lost, period.

and perhaps somewhat safer

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#286

Post by boelboel »

streetfighter64 wrote: post #261
bdangubic wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

make this severely illegal with minimum two decades behind bars and what how they disappear… this is a very solvable problem which no one wants to solve

People have spend decades in prison for selling weed. Now it's legalized in more and more countries. Making things people like illegal rarely works, and it's far from a "solvable problem". Don't get me wrong, gambling is very bad, but if we were to analyze it statistically I think alcohol is way worse for society at large. And we all know how making alcohol illegal went.

Legal weed has been a disaster in the US, 20 million addicted (almost daily use/daily use) versus a few million before it was banned.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#287

Post by brookst »

cucumber3732842 wrote: post #243
mastermage wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

WHAT and I have to stress IN THE ACTUAL FUCK

You see sins. Politicians see sin taxes, political will to spin up regulatory beurocracies, etc, etc.

Politicians DGAF about sin taxes or creating bureaucracies that tbey have no control over.

But the lobbyist money, the campaign donations? Those are the drivers.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#288

Post by kakacik »

taurath wrote: post #254
cucumber3732842 wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You see sins. Politicians see sin taxes, political will to spin up regulatory beurocracies, etc, etc.

We used to debate things like the harms to society of gambling, now it’s a silent decree that it’s not only legal but the basis for our economy. The same group who used to preach family values turned out to be the biggest casino pimps and pornographers.

You know what earns a lot of money rather effortlessly? Harvesting organs. I mean its just a cash flow, anyway for sure from sinners. Look at Chinese, always ahead of the curve.

Bonus points for saving lives of some wealthy folks. Everybody (who matters) wins.

I have some other ideas, all one needs is to flush morals down the drain for good. Clearly some folks are there already, we need to quickly jump on that rat race or FOMO would catch up and thats a big NONO.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#289

Post by fragmede »

brookst wrote: post #284
fragmede wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

because no one's ever had their wallet/purse with their ID in it stolen?

What percent of ID verifications do you think are from stolen wallets / purses?

what percentage of fraud is fraud? I honestly don't know!

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#290

Post by toxik »

raverbashing wrote: post #271
LiamPowell wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure about Kalshi, however on most sports betting sites you actually are betting against the house. The betting sites all have in-house models (or piggyback off other sites) that are much better at predicting odds than the general public. If someone is making money then the sites just place limits on that account so they're not losing money.

It's not too complicated The average player loses money. Hence the opposite side will make money Exceptions are dealt accordingly

It comes down to some form of the old adage "the average person thinks they're smarter than the average person". They're not.
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