the fact that apps like Polymarket seem to be legal is absolutely crazy to me.
Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators
181–190 of 424 posts
Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators
#182I finally gave in to my curiosity and downloaded Kalshi last week to place a few bets on the World Cup. I was blown away how easy it was. I placed a bet with real money within 5 minutes of downloading the app. They allow instant deposits with credit card, and ID verification was real time. I can’t imagine that the extreme accessibility and the typical dark patterns deployed by every popular app won’t eventually end b…
There's a lot of proposed legislation trying to expand mobile gambling too: https://www.gamblinginsider.com/news/114277/massachusetts-ig... https://sportsbettingalliance.org/take-action/ohio_igaming/ https://sportsbettingalliance.org/take-action/texas/ https://mgaleg.maryland.gov/mgawebsite/Legislation/Details/h...
WHAT and I have to stress IN THE ACTUAL FUCK
Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators
#183I made an article a day back how Polymarket is not exactly fair when it comes to market resolution ( https://omarabid.com/polymarket-bet/ ) They actually don’t decide on market outcomes, they outsource that to UMA which is as opaque as it can get. Consider the probabilities in polymarket as the prob. of the polymarket market itself outcomes rather than reality.
Also UMA holders who get to judge do participate in markets.
Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators
#184Earlier quoted context omitted.
It’s gambling, and the house always wins.
There is no house on polymarket, it's pvp.
Not true, polymarket and kalshi have a lot of system bets, basically bets where the other side is the market, and further they take a cut from the money gambled.
There are other things as well, like they control which side wins, so they can leverage trade or even swing trade internally with a few bot accounts, not saying that they do but I don't see a ToC that says they can't.
Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators
#185Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators
#186> He compared the videos to fast-food commercials, where food can appear more appealing than it does in real life. > “We’re depicting what actually happens,” he said. The cope is real. They all know they are destroying lives by promoting gambling to young people and eventually some of them are going to overspend and get addicted. But yeah, it's just like an ad for a burger
The burger ad is also getting people addicted and destroying lives. But with burgers most people blame the victims. In my opinion it's all the same. Gambling, junk food, drugs, guns... Lots of money to be made, lots of lives destroyed.
Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators
#187Earlier quoted context omitted.
We should just make gambling illegal online again, things were fine back when you couldn’t gamble online then, at least in the USA, the fucking supreme corpo guzzlers (formerly the Supreme Court) interpreted the laws according to their owners will and now we have gambling online.
The court ruling was a good one, and anticipated. The federal government can either allow all gambling, or ban it all. They can’t pick and choose states where it may be allowed.
Before online gambling went wild in the US, most brick and mortal gambling was one of three sources: (1) Nevada (Las Vegas, etc.), (2) Atlantic City, New Jersey, (3) Native American tribes. There were also some other odd locations, like river boat gambling on the Mississippi River or "cardrooms" in California. As a result, most Americans did not live close to a casino. Now, you can do it from your smartphone.
Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators
#188Earlier quoted context omitted.
A bit of a tangent, but many like the moneylines isn't because of gambling but because it tells you who's the favorite/underdog and by what margin. It's like in the equivalent of a chess game of knowing the player's ratings, which itself can directly lead to a nominal moneyline, but in most sports there's no formal predictive rating system.
It’s the kind of thing that would suck all enjoyment out of watching sports for me personally. I may well be in a minority though, possibly an old person thing too
Fellow old here too. I enjoy it because there's a lot of sports I follow intermittently. For instance I enjoy watching UFC on occasion, but often find by the time I catch another fight I often have no clue who the guys in the main event are!
I think I enjoy the odds because it adds a sort of unspoken storyline to a fight, because those fighters themselves also know who's the underdog and it adds a bit of a psychological edge to the contest.
It's a lot like watching a chess game where the same stuff unfolds where you expect the favorite to push. Will the underdog look to survive, try to come and prove he's not to be taken lightly, and so on. Good times.
Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators
#189I made an article a day back how Polymarket is not exactly fair when it comes to market resolution ( https://omarabid.com/polymarket-bet/ ) They actually don’t decide on market outcomes, they outsource that to UMA which is as opaque as it can get. Consider the probabilities in polymarket as the prob. of the polymarket market itself outcomes rather than reality.
Wow, this is so much worse than i thought.
Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators
#190Earlier quoted context omitted.
A bit of a tangent, but many like the moneylines isn't because of gambling but because it tells you who's the favorite/underdog and by what margin. It's like in the equivalent of a chess game of knowing the player's ratings, which itself can directly lead to a nominal moneyline, but in most sports there's no formal predictive rating system.
There could easily be. There's no reason you couldn't publish some Elo-like thing on teams or players, if that was your interest - you don't need gambling to get a good idea of who the favorite is. But the interest is in gambling, so most people inclined to publish such a thing probably bet themselves/sell it as a product to gamblers.
But this is where stuff like prediction markets shine. In chess, for instance, the prediction market odds are going to be way closer to the outcome than might be expected because of the players' ratings. This is because skilled bettors are capable of considering things like exact matchups, history, short-term performance/form, and many other factors that a static rating can't really account for.
Incidentally this is also what makes chess games relatively profitable. Moderate-info bettors will do things like flip on their chess engine, look at the eval, and then bet on that. But a computer might say a position is a dead-draw when a stronger player can tell you 'white has big practical winning chances'.