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US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

bbc.com

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Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#141

Post by tristanj »

defrost wrote: post #134
tristanj wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

JCPOA only had temporary enrichment limits, which would end in 2030, after which Iran could enrich freely. It did not permanently stop enrichment. If JCPOA was followed by both Iran and the US to the letter, we would face a similar crisis to the one seen today, except around 2031-2035.

Unless agreements are renegotiated and extended, of course. What matters is ongoing engagement and monitoring, it's a far more tractable position than standoffs with zero knowledge or interaction.

The core reason those sunset dates exist is because Iranian officials stated that a sunset on enrichment limits was a non-negotiable. They would not sign a deal without them.

Claiming "agreements are renegotiated and extended" is hypothetical. What incentive does Iran have to agree to enrichment caps post-2030? Why would Iran give up its strongest negotiating card, its nuclear program?

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#142

Post by throaway23663 »

tristanj wrote: post #120
wolvoleo wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It did to weapons grade. It only permitted enrichment for energy purposes. And was validated by inspections. The current crisis is entirely because Trump trashed that agreement in the first place.

The crisis exists because Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons. That's the root issue. JCPOA was never a permanent solution. Under JCPOA, Iran agreed to temporarily cap enrichment for 15 years until 2030. After which, Iran could enrich freely. JCPOA had no extension framework, the deal could not be extended without being renegotiated. And Iranian officials refused to agree to permanent enrichment caps, they said the 15-y…

So you're saying all of this shit is a because we could not renegotiate a deal... which is to end in 2030? As if there was no more time to wait?

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#143

Post by tristanj »

hypeatei wrote: post #136
tristanj wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The crisis exists because Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons. That's the root issue. JCPOA was never a permanent solution. Under JCPOA, Iran agreed to temporarily cap enrichment for 15 years until 2030. After which, Iran could enrich freely. JCPOA had no extension framework, the deal could not be extended without being renegotiated. And Iranian officials refused to agree to permanent enrichment caps, they said the 15-y…

> The crisis exists because Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons According to whom? I know there's one country who says Iran is two weeks away from nuclear weapons, but who else?

According to Ali Motahari, a former member of the parliament of Iran. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Motahari

Former Iranian Majles member Ali Motahari said in an April 24, 2022 interview on ISCA News (Iran) that when Iran began developing its nuclear program, the goal was to build a nuclear bomb. He said that there is no need to beat around the bush, and that the bomb would have been used as a "means of intimidation" in accordance with a Quranic verse about striking "fear in the hearts of the enemies of Allah."

"When we began our nuclear activity, our goal was indeed to build a bomb,” former Iranian politician Ali Motahari told ISCA News. “There is no need to beat around the bush,” he said.

When asked if saying this publicly will negatively affect the ongoing JCPOA negotiations, Motahari answered: "Nobody notices what I am saying."

https://www.memri.org/tv/former-iranian-majles-member-motaha...

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202204245312

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#144

Post by throaway23663 »

tristanj wrote: post #143
hypeatei wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The crisis exists because Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons According to whom? I know there's one country who says Iran is two weeks away from nuclear weapons, but who else?

According to Ali Motahari, a former member of the parliament of Iran. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Motahari Former Iranian Majles member Ali Motahari said in an April 24, 2022 interview on ISCA News (Iran) that when Iran began developing its nuclear program, the goal was to build a nuclear bomb. He said that there is no need to beat around the bush, and that the bomb would have been used as a "means of intimidat…

> MEMRI was co-founded by Israeli ex-intelligence officer Yigal Carmon and Israeli-American political scientist Meyrav Wurmser in 1998.

Well that's convenient, isn't it.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#145

Post by HeavyStorm »

petilon wrote: post #110
ep103 wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump released Iran's frozen assets, in return for them opening the straight and thereby dropping oil prices before the midterm elections. Reminder, the reason Trump hated the Obama deal was because he construed it as paying Iran not to develop nuclear weapons. Obama was paying Iran with the money from Iran's frozen assets. Trump's deal gives them that money, and has no nuclear agreement.

Rising inflation at home forced Trump's hand.

No, invading Iran without a proper plan or goal forced his hand. This was a strategic mistake from Day 1.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#146

Post by analognoise »

mostafah wrote: post #94

> Tehran agrees that it will neither produce nor acquire nuclear weapons. Of course they do. They have always said they don’t want nuclear weapons while pursuing them relentlessly. > Iran’s nuclear programme, uranium enrichment activities and mechanisms for handling its stockpile of highly enriched uranium would be negotiated within 60 days of the memorandum and addressed in a final agreement. If that is still to be…

Our own intelligence agencies said they were not making nuclear weapons.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/americas-spies-say-ira... https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-intel-community-agreed-b...

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#147

Post by tristanj »

throaway23663 wrote: post #144
tristanj wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to Ali Motahari, a former member of the parliament of Iran. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Motahari Former Iranian Majles member Ali Motahari said in an April 24, 2022 interview on ISCA News (Iran) that when Iran began developing its nuclear program, the goal was to build a nuclear bomb. He said that there is no need to beat around the bush, and that the bomb would have been used as a "means of intimidat…

> MEMRI was co-founded by Israeli ex-intelligence officer Yigal Carmon and Israeli-American political scientist Meyrav Wurmser in 1998. Well that's convenient, isn't it.

You're trying hard to discredit this, but that fails here. The interview in question was conduced by ISCA News, an Iranian state-run media agency.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#148

Post by jeffbee »

petilon wrote: post #35
jeffbee wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's much worse than that. This gives Iran de jure control of traffic in the strait.

How so? Trump Claims Strait Will be ‘Permanently Toll Free’ Under Agreement With Iran (NYT headline).

Trump also said he would refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve "right to the top" in 6 weeks and, instead, emptied it to its lowest level ever. He also said foreign investment in the United States would rise to 22 trillion dollars, but instead total foreign investment weakened to below $300 billion in 2025. Oh, and he also said tariffs were cutting the deficit by 25%, while he instead managed the deficit to a slightly higher level, even before counting the Iran War.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#149

Post by comrade1234 »

zahlman wrote: post #126
comrade1234 wrote: post #5

Surely trump deserves the Nobel prize for this deal!

This is not any better than the reply about Obama. The intention of the snark is clear, and does not contribute to useful discourse. Please don't.

It's a ridiculous situation that requires ridicule. And further I will bet you (or polymarket) that someone will nominate trump for the Nobel prize for this deal.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#150

Post by insane_dreamer »

petilon wrote: post #50

Details here: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-says-draft-us-d... Key bullets: What Iran gets: * The U.S. agrees to release $25 billion of Iran’s frozen assets, including via direct cash transfers, cooperation among regional countries, and financial credit lines. * Washington, in coordination with its regional allies, would prepare a reconstruction and development plan for Iran, to be negotiated and agree…

So basically, what we had before Trump started this stupid war at Bibi's behest.
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