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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

economist.com

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#351

Post by jraby3 »

SilverElfin wrote: post #192
giancarlostoro wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anthropic is profitable unlike OpenAI though. Sure they'll owe a lot of money for probably decades, but if they remain profitable moving forward, it will be worthwhile.

That profit figure is a pre IPO marketing claim, not an audited and GAAP accounted number. And there is already a lot written about how Anthropic exaggerated revenue compared to OpenAI. https://www.forbes.com/sites/josipamajic/2026/03/25/openai-a...

This seems like it's because openAI actually partnered with Microsoft and has to give them 20% of their revenue. Anthropic isn't partnering with their cloud providers so it makes sense to me they count top line revenue and then give Amazon payment as an expense. Also the numbers seem pretty minor compared to anthropic $49B run rate. The article mentioned an openAI payment of around $500M.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#352

Post by gen220 »

paulbgd wrote: post #154
jmyeet wrote: post #17

So what people seem to be unaware of or are purposely ignoring is that OpenAI and Anthropic have invested trillions in a rapdily depreciating asset. There was a HN post from a day or two ago where someone bought a V100 for 150 pounds and connected it to their computer. Well that was a $10k GPU in 2017. That's the fate of H100/B100 GPUs in 5-10 years (and I suspect closer to 5). What do you do if you've invested $1 tr…

As I was reading the start of your argument, I thought you were gonna call the models a depreciating asset! Totally agree about GPUs too, but literally everything they’re spending money on has to be rebuilt to stay competitive. They have to go for the moonshot of training a full new model when better tech comes, they have to upgrade GPUs to keep their data centers efficient.

How many failed foundation model training run cycles do you think these companies can tank before the bubble pops and deepseek/etc. catch up to frontier quality?

If Ant, OAI, etc. aren't able to make 20-30% improvements on Opus 4.6 in 2026, does the music stop playing altogether? It seems like they'd lose their ability to charge >10% gross margin on inference in a span of 3-6 months.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#353

Post by BostonFern »

dools wrote: post #198
gruez wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you have evidence of corruption, present it. Otherwise it's just generic cynicism leading to a thought terminating cliche.

At this point in US regulatory oversight I would have a harder time finding evidence of no corruption.

Then present your evidence, so we can have a substantive debate and draw informed conclusions.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#354

Post by californical »

tikhonj wrote: post #316
wookmaster wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why else would they change the rule ?

Because they think that a lot of people will want to get in on the historically massive and well-known companies, which would lead to outflows if the index doesn't pick them up fast enough?

It will lead to outflows either way. And I say that as someone who has been an Index fund evangelist for years, strongly considering selling my index funds to build my own collection of companies that I believe in long term.

So why not just stick to the roles we agreed on when buying in?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#355

Post by pryce »

augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

This should be a 5 alarm fire. It reminds me of nothing more than organized crime rackets that targeted control of union retirement funds

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#356

Post by tedd4u »

themafia wrote: post #203
jandrewrogers wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you are growing revenue at a high rate then taking profit is a misallocation of resources. That is short-term thinking. It is much better to reinvest in revenue growth. You can take small profit now or much larger profit later. Insisting that companies need to be profitable even when growing revenue rapidly is failing the marshmallow test.

> That is short-term thinking. Then why IPO? Isn't that even shorter term thinking?

Maybe they are struggling to put together money for datacenter buildout (Capex).

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#357

Post by fragmede »

goda90 wrote: post #273
stingraycharles wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My understanding is that it’s better than doctors themselves. But it’s probably the same as with autonomous driving: the bar isn’t just “be as good as humans”, it’s “be flawless”.

With these kinds of things, I want to see comparisons to trained, alert humans. Cut out all the distracted, stressed, tired, incompetent, intoxicated cases from the baseline. That includes rushed doctors at the end of a long shift. A self driving car doing better than a drunk on the freeway doesn't reassure me that it'll do better than sober me in a snowstorm.

How does sober you in a snowstorm cause the drunk on the freeway not to drive?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#358

Post by hvb2 »

hattmall wrote: post #253
waterheater wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On one order, correct, but it's still on the order of hundreds of millions to billions. Also, keep in mind that a stock price discounts expected future cash flows. Is it likely that SpaceX will have a near-peer competitor within a few years? No, it's not, and that market share is being priced-in.

Is it likely that SpaceX will have actual reasonable demand? Their major customer is Starlink. How legitimately confident are we in the numbers with regard to price reduction vs creative accounting to offload costs to Starlink and subsidize the launches to appear to offer huge cost reductions? If there exists sufficient demand for the product of space launches then it's probably reasonable to expect their to be a nea…

> If there exists sufficient demand for the product of space launches then it's probably reasonable to expect their to be a near-peer competitor soon

Space is not that easy. Even with unlimited money, it'll probably take 10 years to build a rocket like starship. Going from nothing to orbit needs a lot of money but more money doesn't make that faster.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#359

Post by riffraff »

OccamsMirror wrote: post #322
nelox wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Listen to the author of “A Brief History of Financial Bubbles” argue why it probably isn’t a bubble: https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/260347/s/233172.rss https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/conversations-with-col... https://open.spotify.com/show/0Cj2lIpGxkrw1RFVIPTa6a?si=f41c...

Can you please summarize his argument?

The argument is, as I understand it:

* Valuation of the sp500, the hyperscalers and Nvidia is (mostly) reasonable based on earnings

* Build out of infrastructure is demand-driven, hyperscalers are not building just for future demand that would not materialize

* OpenAI, anthropic & co can be overvalued but that does not mean there's a systemic bubble

I think this underestimates contagion effects and the fact that demand appears to be subsidized and may disappear quickly, but it's just MHO.

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