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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

economist.com

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#311

Post by HWR_14 »

gruez wrote: post #173
augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

>and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. 90 days or 5 days, it doesn't really matter because the float will be tiny due to the 6 month lockup. What kind of price discovery are we expecting that would happen in the other 85 days?

SpaceX is slowly and steadily increasing the float over the first 6 months by having a rolling end to the lockup. The only major cliff will be Elons shares

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#312

Post by nesk_ »

haldujai wrote: post #267
stingraycharles wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My understanding is that it’s better than doctors themselves. But it’s probably the same as with autonomous driving: the bar isn’t just “be as good as humans”, it’s “be flawless”.

It’s actually quite a lot worse than even doctors in training except for highly constrained experimental settings and a few very nice applications that are mostly too tedious/impractical for a human to do or are very basic detection tasks. I am a radiologist and researcher predominately focused on AI.

A friend of mine, a dermatologist, told me that LLMs are quite performant for melanoma analysis. Based on their own statistics, LLMs are able to beat humans with ~10 years of experience in the field.

They will never beat the human instinct tho, but they can be great tools sometimes. Unfortunately, LLMs mostly produce garbage.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#313

Post by lenerdenator »

kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #260
willsmith72 wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this is disgusting corruption, a direct wealth transfer from the many to the few. shame on everyone involved

We need the opposition taking names for investigations in 2029. They're not all getting pardons.

They're just as on the take as anyone.

Think about it: you have hundreds of thousands of pages of evidence that the hyper-wealthy may have trafficked minors across state and international borders. Only one person is in prison over it, and her cell gets upgrades.

35 years ago this would have been a slam dunk for the opposition party of any republic. Instead of standing ten toes down on it, opposition leaders are doing... what exactly? Going on with business-as-usual, for the most part. They should be attempting to add language to every single bill that comes across the floor to see more done. They aren't.

I think stock trading shenanigans are far lower on the list of moral outrages, particularly given Congress' predilection for insider trading.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#314

Post by digitaltrees »

stinkbeetle wrote: post #300
taurath wrote: post #129

[flagged]

You're claiming without evidence that the bureaucracy and regulators are corrupt to the core? No way I refuse to hear another bad word about the government, they are above reproach sir.

I was a lawyer in 2008 representing banks in the financial crisis. Multiple bankers wives set up companies to by mortgage backed securities using government loans and government guarantees on payment upon default. That let the banks get the toxic mortgages off their balance sheet.

These wives were yoga teachers and socialites. And I say that as a man that is a feminist and upmost respect for the amazing women I have worked with that were absolutely world renowned professionals. The bankers wives were not in that category and were shells to eliminate the “conflict of interest”. The CEO of Goldman Sachs did this. You can find the records if you want to be on a government watch list.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#315

Post by cortesoft »

gruez wrote: post #173
augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

>and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. 90 days or 5 days, it doesn't really matter because the float will be tiny due to the 6 month lockup. What kind of price discovery are we expecting that would happen in the other 85 days?

The indexes are weighted based on the float (at least most of them)... so a small float means they will buy a much smaller number of shares.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#316

Post by tikhonj »

wookmaster wrote: post #278
gruez wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you have evidence of corruption, present it. Otherwise it's just generic cynicism leading to a thought terminating cliche.

Why else would they change the rule ?

Because they think that a lot of people will want to get in on the historically massive and well-known companies, which would lead to outflows if the index doesn't pick them up fast enough?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#317

Post by cdash »

newshackr wrote: post #215
s1artibartfast wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

why? the cards are on the table. If you buy a turd from me after I disclose the composition, that is on you

You can't sell these ETFs without incurring capital gains, potentially large. So it isn't really a choice.

How is that their problem? That is an issue between you and the government.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#318

Post by newsicanuse »

olalonde wrote: post #120
ravenstine wrote: post #90

All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?

Comments like these make me feel like we're living in different worlds. I use LLMs multiple times a day and they've significantly improved my quality of life. They are also steadily becoming more useful over time (e.g. now solving math problems).

Comments like these make me feel like AI is a computer in the hands of a monkey, and that too the computer which is unreliable.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#319

Post by lenerdenator »

d--b wrote: post #298
s1artibartfast wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

why? the cards are on the table. If you buy a turd from me after I disclose the composition, that is on you

Sure, the problem is trust. Regular people want to invest so they can make money and companies want people to invest so that they can raise money. So pretty much everybody wants the 401k money to be invested in the stock market. But the issue is that investing in the stock market is very technical, so some smart asses invented the index funds to make it easy for daddy and mummy to put their retirement accounts to wor…

> People are not finance specialists and they are heavily incentivized to buy index funds, so they need to trust that the people who are telling them to invest are not hiding things from them. If that trust is broken, lawsuits will follow.

A "lawsuit" isn't a concern for the likes of Musk.

He's got the money to pay lawyers, politicians, and influencers. He's spread this risk around to the right people; if he goes down, they're going down with him, too.

At a certain point you have to start jailing people for long periods of time. I don't mean the Milken, Belfort, or Skilling treatment. I mean being placed away for 30+ years in medium-security facilities at the least.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#320

Post by decimalenough »

roflulz wrote: post #289
fragmede wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So the obvious thing to do, for someone that's got ~$3mm to play with, is to setup an ETF that is SP500 but with the old rules. If you can convince $40mm of other people's money to go into your not-specifically-Musk-less-but-just-happens-to-be ETF, they'd come out ahead.

The S&P Shariah index fund is required to exclude SpaceX and already exists https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500-shar...

Why would a Shariah index fund have to exclude SpaceX?
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