Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI? • Hacker News Board

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#211

Post by themafia » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 2:53 AM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #56

idiotsecant wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A third of all spending is not fundamentally a stretch?

> A third of all spending is not fundamentally a stretch? Where did you get spending? That's net buying of stocks by non-financial Americans. It's the new money that has, on average, gone into the U.S. stock market from that section of investors every year. A third of it going into these new issuances doesn't need to break anything.

> A third of it going into these new issuances doesn't need to break anything.

Other than it not going somewhere more productive. Are you willing to just bury 1/3 of your income in the back yard?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#212

Post by themafia » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 2:54 AM UTC

Auracle wrote: post #164

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there is too much money trying to pour into the market Keep in mind that inflation ran over 7% annualized in April [1]. [1] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

The vast majority of that was fuel.

Yea and the cost of fuel has zero downstream effects on the economy.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#213

Post by JumpCrisscross » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 2:55 AM UTC

fluidcruft wrote: post #201

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> S&P 500’s 12-month seasoning and 4-quarter GAAP profitability requirement → waived S&P hasn’t announced a final rule change yet.

Yeah, right.

> Yeah, right

Yes. Literally right.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#214

Post by hedora » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 2:55 AM UTC

threetonesun wrote: post #191

olalonde wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Comments like these make me feel like we're living in different worlds. I use LLMs multiple times a day and they've significantly improved my quality of life. They are also steadily becoming more useful over time (e.g. now solving math problems).

I’d love it if for once someone on here saying LLMs are some life changing apparatus would give a single example.

We have some exotic chicks the kids picked out, and 4 were going to die of brooder pneumonia.

An LLM correctly diagnosed it, and figure out that we could treat them with Nutri-drench Sheep Supplement, since Tractor Supply was sold out of the chicken version, and they are very similar.

Of course it then immediately recommended we use hemp bedding that would kill them a different way, but the saleswoman sanity checked all of the above,

100% survival rate.

Everyone’s thriving. Chickens would follow the medical advice again, I guess.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#215

Post by newshackr » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 2:57 AM UTC

s1artibartfast wrote: post #204

d--b wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow, didn’t know that. If SpaceX tanks and 401ks are left holding the bag, this could result in the biggest class action lawsuit ever.

why? the cards are on the table. If you buy a turd from me after I disclose the composition, that is on you

You can't sell these ETFs without incurring capital gains, potentially large. So it isn't really a choice.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#216

Post by michaelmrose » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 2:57 AM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #141

tomrod wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it is deliberately extracting cash from Mom and Pop into the robber baron's wallets?

Okay? Why does that mean a devastating pop?

Because traditionally the pop is delayed while those who realized most of the gains attempt to offload the risk to other parties. Whether this works or not at some point it becomes an inevitable and self reenforcing feedback loop.

Just investing less in risky things on the run up means you personally perform worse so even in known bubbles you don't see reasonable slow downs instead of disastrous pops.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#217

Post by smallerize » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 2:58 AM UTC

jauntywundrkind wrote: post #150

jmyeet wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You forgot the part where NASDAQ already enacted a rule change that normally prohibits small floats from index inclusion (and thus forced purchase by index funds), which was normally 10% [1]. SpaceX is only floating ~4.3% of their stock and they're triple-weighting it . [1]: https://www.forbes.com/sites/garthfriesen/2026/04/25/spacex-...

Also worth asking what SpaceXLAI's plan is to make money. $22.7T of their $28.5T Total Addressable Market is... Drumroll... Enterprise AI! That's the plan, that's what we are investing in: spacex and Tesla and Twitter are all side shows, to sell AI. That's what everyone's absurdly overpriced forced passive investment is going to. https://bsky.app/profile/segyges.bsky.social/post/3mnan7hr2j... There is nowhere near en…

It's not only Grok, but also the robotics applications.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#218

Post by worik » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 2:59 AM UTC

What is the value proposition for Space-X?

As far as I can tell it is in machines they cannot make work, servicing markets that do not exist for a service that will not matter for 20-years.

That and a third rate AI company that no body wants, except to get rid of.

This will probably go swimmingly at the start - but as time goes by and they raise more capital, Musk snorts more K and the glory fades, what then?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#219

Post by JumpCrisscross » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC

lovich wrote: post #167

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> All three benchmarks are now structured to buy SpaceX at IPO pricing S&P has not finalized a rule change yet.

Do you think it’s more or less likely that they will make the same change as the other benchmarks?

> Do you think it’s more or less likely that they will make the same change as the other benchmarks?

S&P has historically been more conservative. My personal guess is they won't adopt all of the proposals.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#220

Post by bobsomers » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 3:01 AM UTC

newshackr wrote: post #215

s1artibartfast wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

why? the cards are on the table. If you buy a turd from me after I disclose the composition, that is on you

You can't sell these ETFs without incurring capital gains, potentially large. So it isn't really a choice.

If it's actually your 401k, sure you can. Just today I rebalanced my retirement funds away from large cap stocks to avoid this steaming turd that Elon is dumping on the public.