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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#51

Post by aurareturn »

layoric wrote: post #41
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the crash (that we all know is coming) will do that. Until then, history teaches that we'll just keep going up and up Stock prices don't have to crash. They can just stagnate while profits catch up and multiples compress. Debt binges, on the other hand, tend to go bust with a bang. But after the recent private-credit scare, the AI build-out has been predominantly financed with stock. (I think.)

Hasn't there been a _lot_ of debt to buy up Nvidia GPUs? I follow this stuff somewhat closely and it feels intentionally confusing, so I've likely lost track.

And we're still extremely compute constrained. We need more Nvidia GPUs, RAM, power.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#52

Post by bunderbunder »

paulpauper wrote: post #13
rconti wrote: post #2

So they're not just racing to gain dominance in AI, they're also racing to IPO before the music stops? IPOing and getting a bunch of cash, even if your stock subsequently suffers in the crash, is a lot better than being unable to get that capital infusion before the house of cards collapses.

People keep predicting "house of cards" and keep being wrong. AI bubble was supposed to burst as far back as 2023. When was the last time since 2009 there was a $500+ billion tech valuation that lost 90% or more? After a certain point , 100% market penetration is achieved and these products become mainstream and profitability follows. See Uber and Tesla for examples.

The old saying goes, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

I’m not necessarily expecting a crash any time soon. (But we average a major correction, what? every 8 years? So if you keep predicting one long enough you will eventually have been right all along.) But I do feel comfortable saying OpenAI and Anthropic are overpriced. For more or less the same reason Cisco was overpriced in the late ‘90s. It’s not that what they were making wasn’t valuable; it’s that we got out over our skis a bit over how much of it the world could actually manage to consume in the immediate future.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#53

Post by idiotsecant »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #9

Net buying of corporate equities by American households, trusts, funds and non-profits has averaged $660bn per year for the last few years [1]. $200bn is not fundamentally a stretch for the American equity markets, let alone capital markets more broadly. [1] https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/20260319/html/f22... line 16, 2023 to 2025

A third of all spending is not fundamentally a stretch?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#54

Post by soared »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #9

Net buying of corporate equities by American households, trusts, funds and non-profits has averaged $660bn per year for the last few years [1]. $200bn is not fundamentally a stretch for the American equity markets, let alone capital markets more broadly. [1] https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/20260319/html/f22... line 16, 2023 to 2025

A 30% increase in one year, across only 3 companies, seems like a of a stretch. Especially given current economic/etc climates.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#55

Post by TechSquidTV »

hungryhobbit wrote: post #14
timmg wrote: post #8

The way I've been thinking about it: there is too much money trying to pour into the market. That's why valuations are so high. Maybe getting more of these big private companies public will bring valuations down a bit. (Just my impression. No math or financial studies behind it :)

No, the crash (that we all know is coming) will do that. Until then, history teaches that we'll just keep going up and up

I very much disagree that it's coming. I think we need to completely reset our expectations of how the market works. There's been nearly an entire generation working in this "new" bull market, where things like EPS mean absolutely nothing and speculation no longer requires actual returns.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#56

Post by JumpCrisscross »

idiotsecant wrote: post #53
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #9

Net buying of corporate equities by American households, trusts, funds and non-profits has averaged $660bn per year for the last few years [1]. $200bn is not fundamentally a stretch for the American equity markets, let alone capital markets more broadly. [1] https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/20260319/html/f22... line 16, 2023 to 2025

A third of all spending is not fundamentally a stretch?

> A third of all spending is not fundamentally a stretch?

Where did you get spending? That's net buying of stocks by non-financial Americans. It's the new money that has, on average, gone into the U.S. stock market from that section of investors every year. A third of it going into these new issuances doesn't need to break anything.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#57

Post by tristanj »

jmyeet wrote: post #17

So what people seem to be unaware of or are purposely ignoring is that OpenAI and Anthropic have invested trillions in a rapdily depreciating asset. There was a HN post from a day or two ago where someone bought a V100 for 150 pounds and connected it to their computer. Well that was a $10k GPU in 2017. That's the fate of H100/B100 GPUs in 5-10 years (and I suspect closer to 5). What do you do if you've invested $1 tr…

Starlink Mobile (i.e. Starlink direct-to-cellphone without modifications) is already happening, and fast. Phones that have the recently announced Qualcomm X105 modem will support Starlink Mobile 5G at speeds up to 150Mbps, direct from satellite. The Qualcomm X105 modem will be in most Android flagship phones coming later this year, and by 2027 most new phones will support Starlink direct-to-cell. The next iPhone that supports the 3GPP Rel-19 standard will too.

The rollout relies on Starlink V3 sats, which can only be launched Starship, but Starship progress is going well and is already able to deploy satellites from orbit. SpaceX is capable of launching Starlink V3 on the current iteration of Starship, but they want more testing. We'll probably see Starlink V3 launching late this year or early next year.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#58

Post by 1270018080 »

timmg wrote: post #8

The way I've been thinking about it: there is too much money trying to pour into the market. That's why valuations are so high. Maybe getting more of these big private companies public will bring valuations down a bit. (Just my impression. No math or financial studies behind it :)

There is nowhere else for that money to go

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#59

Post by munk-a »

irjustin wrote: post #46
hungryhobbit wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the crash (that we all know is coming) will do that. Until then, history teaches that we'll just keep going up and up

This is one of those "everyone who dies, breaths air" statements. It's frustrating people who parrot it think they're smart by saying it to others with no basis and finally when it does happen they're like SEE SEE!? > Until then, history teaches that we'll just keep going up and up And this is the more important part. As long as you're People have been saying the crash has been coming since 2022. If you believed this…

Right now SPY not be such a great idea with SpaceX launch upcoming since it will be included into it immediately. Retail investors will be bearing that particular flop's cost.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#60

Post by 486sx33 »

TechSquidTV wrote: post #55
hungryhobbit wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the crash (that we all know is coming) will do that. Until then, history teaches that we'll just keep going up and up

I very much disagree that it's coming. I think we need to completely reset our expectations of how the market works. There's been nearly an entire generation working in this "new" bull market, where things like EPS mean absolutely nothing and speculation no longer requires actual returns.

It’s unfortunate, but this exact sentiment precludes every market crash. Just before dotcom burst it was the same thing. Technology will change everything the nasdaq will continue to grow in the technology age, etc etc. eventually the chickens come home to roost as they say
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