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Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

anthropic.com

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Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#381

Post by dogwalker5000 »

nelox wrote: post #326
pseudosavant wrote: post #197

Up until this point, the potential for an AI bust blast radius was limited to corporate investors, but this is going to cause regular retail/401k investors to get exposure, which could have far bigger impacts on a downturn. Not to mention the insane wake-up call it is going to be for these AI stocks when 3 months after they launch they have to start making earnings calls and showing their financials. That quarter-by-…

Look at the P/E ratio Amazon has had for years and come back with a better argument. [edit:typo]

Amazon has assets in the form of warehouses though. What assets do these AI companies have other than rapidly depreciating GPUs.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#382

Post by derwiki »

xracy wrote: post #348

Curious how someone with a 401k, who didn't want their retirement to be used by these companies to buy at an inflated price, would go about opting out of this. Typically I just have my 401k in an index fund so that things have to become established before they're added. This seems like it's circumventing that, and I would be inclined to vote with my wallet. But everything around 401k index funds that I see are very o…

If you have BrokerageLink, you can park your 401k in anything you want

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#383

Post by lmm »

groundzeros2015 wrote: post #271
EugeneG wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reminds me of this... During Apple's 1980 Initial Public Offering (IPO), Massachusetts regulators banned residents from purchasing the stock. The state's securities regulators deemed the offering "too risky" and "over-valued," enforcing a state rule that prohibited IPOs with a price exceeding 25 times earnings.

And it was probably prudent to wait. The investors who wanted to take more risk could do that. Retroactive reasoning with investments (if I just bought X) is insane.

> The investors who wanted to take more risk could do that.

What? How? By moving out of Massachusetts? I could understand banning such a speculative stock for e.g. pension funds or whatever, but blocking private individuals from buying with their own money seems insane.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#384

Post by lmm »

xracy wrote: post #347
martinald wrote: post #343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's get it in perspective though. The S&P500 market cap is currently $70T. Assume that Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX all IPO and get included in SPY with the new fast listing rules. They are likely to be worth $3-4T combined, which means 'retail' investors are going to have perhaps 5% of their portfolio in it. _Arugably_ that's a pretty fair allocation for retail investors to have to these "moonshot" style companies…

Who invests in an index fund for "moonshots"? Everyone I know who invests in an index fund is doing so to mitigate the risks of things like "moonshots" which are typically much riskier investments.

> Who invests in an index fund for "moonshots"?

> Everyone I know who invests in an index fund is doing so to mitigate the risks of things like "moonshots" which are typically much riskier investments.

The whole point of an index fund is to capture the growth of the whole market. If you wanted low risk you'd be buying bonds.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#385

Post by amanaplanacanal »

atleastoptimal wrote: post #133
cmiles8 wrote: post #25

There is a mad rush to get these IPOs out the door before the market sneezes.

what is going to cause the market to “sneeze”?

I would guess fallout from the straight of hormuz closure. I don't think we have seen the full effects of that yet. Between climbing inflation, and a possible recession, we could definitely see the bubble finally pop.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#386

Post by amanaplanacanal »

throw0101c wrote: post #158
onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are we in a race to see who can pop the bubble first?

> Are we in a race to see who can pop the bubble first? Just because it's a bubble doesn't mean money can't be made. If you're worried it and the risk involved, perhaps go from 100% equities (100/0) to an allocation that has some bonds (90/10, 80/20, etc ). Rebalance as things get out of whack. There are products that do this rebalancing for you: target-date funds that increase bond allocation as you get closer to re…

If we are still likely to see rising interest rates, bonds feel like a bad idea.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#387

Post by bsder »

BryantD wrote: post #365
bsder wrote: post #344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Alta-Vista were still loading Your memory is faulty. AltaVista was always super fast--it never had the advertising bloat that the other ones had until the very end. The problem AltaVista had was that it didn't scale when the Internet went exponential--so AltaVista would give you good search results until you asked current, topical questions. AltaVista relied on running a single, super-expensive stonking huge Alpha…

This is inaccurate. When I was running AV operations around 2000, we were running on a couple dozen huge Alpha machines for the index layer and queries. We had a bunch of smaller machines for Web serving, and a high memory set of Alphas as a caching layer. See https://www.usenix.org/legacy/publications/library/proceedin... for the 1997 server count, which was before we got to the three tier architecture. We also spid…

I stand corrected. Thanks for all your work.

And I still miss the AltaVista illustrated diagram (Java Applet) that would allow you to drill down and specialize the search results. No modern search has ever matched that, again.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#388

Post by k2xl »

throwaw12 wrote: post #125

I know market will buy it, but where would it find the money to fund the stock purchase? Would it crash other company stocks so that investors start selling and purchasing Anthropic shares, or how does it work?

I would assume that the outcome probability of people selling other companies to buy Anthropic/SpaceX/OpenAI has been priced in already.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#390

Post by scoofy »

radicalbyte wrote: post #296
pseudosavant wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google is an excellent example of the companies that followed after the initial batch of big dotcom companies. They ate Yahoo's lunch. The dotcom bust was in 2000, and Google went public in 2004. I'm betting more on the successors to this initial group of AI companies. The ones that have to build actual profitable businesses.

Google was easily 10x better than any of their competition. It was effectively alone in the market. Most of us were using 56k modems to access the internet back then, Google's search returned results within a couple of seconds. Yahoo, Lycos, Excite, Alta-Vista were still loading. Then the search results themselves were so good you could often just pick the first result. They eventually added a button which just took…

Yea, that's easy to say now.

I was a relatively early investor (2008), but I was very hesitant early on because Microsoft was building an integrated search function, which became Windows Live Search, which became Bing. I definitely remember it took me to the beginning of the financial crisis to finally decide that it was going nowhere. I suspect it was the development of Google Maps that changed my mind.

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