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Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

anthropic.com

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Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#121

Post by QuotedForTruth »

exabrial wrote: post #116
roadside_picnic wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more insidious than that. These IPOs aren't being rushed, they were waiting for all the pieces to be in place to force 401ks and other retirement plans to buy these IPOs. The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading. This rule was decided March 30, 2026 and only came into effect May 1, 2026. The pl…

>The plan is to rapidly drive these prices up in the first 15 days, get the companies listed in the NASDAQ so funds are forced to purchase them at higher prices, then leave retirement accounts holding the bag. Dumb question: why couldn't retirement accounts simply not purchase these?

These funds don’t invest actively (picking individual stocks). Instead they invest in indexes that track larger portions of the market. So they’ll automatically buy once the company is listed on the NASDAQ.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#122

Post by alemanek »

boringg wrote: post #100
FuckButtons wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They all know it’s coming, if it pops before they ipo then they don’t get their billion dollar payday, they have every incentive to move quickly.

FYI they have about a 365 day lockup after IPO before the execs can sell.

S-1 isn’t public yet. Source on the lockup period? SpaceX for example filed with accelerated release of insider/investor shares so I don’t think we can know if this is the case until the filing documents become public.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#123

Post by satvikpendem »

johnQdeveloper wrote: post #77
neovive wrote: post #22

If OpenAI and Anthropic eventually become public companies with trillion-dollar valuations, it will be interesting to see if their company ethos remains the same. With that much purchasing power, it's very tempting to gobble up competitors and raise prices.

They already do both. The real competition is coming out of China right now and I doubt the Chinese government is going to let them buy out their "fast follower" AI companies that are consistently 6-12 months behind in terms of quality. That said, I'm factoring quality as in Opus 4.5/Sonnet 4.5/GPT-5.5 as break points since I haven't really seen an improvement since that point when using AI.

They'll just lobby to ban Chinese models as they're already doing.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#124

Post by ReptileMan »

chinathrow wrote: post #75
roadside_picnic wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more insidious than that. These IPOs aren't being rushed, they were waiting for all the pieces to be in place to force 401ks and other retirement plans to buy these IPOs. The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading. This rule was decided March 30, 2026 and only came into effect May 1, 2026. The pl…

How do these people sleep at night coming up with schemes like that?

They don't. They work all night to invent them.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#126

Post by moregrist »

exabrial wrote: post #116
roadside_picnic wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more insidious than that. These IPOs aren't being rushed, they were waiting for all the pieces to be in place to force 401ks and other retirement plans to buy these IPOs. The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading. This rule was decided March 30, 2026 and only came into effect May 1, 2026. The pl…

>The plan is to rapidly drive these prices up in the first 15 days, get the companies listed in the NASDAQ so funds are forced to purchase them at higher prices, then leave retirement accounts holding the bag. Dumb question: why couldn't retirement accounts simply not purchase these?

Seems like there should be a market for a no-Elon/OpenAI/Anthropic ETF out there.

Or one that just imposes a reasonable waiting period on adding newly-IPO’d listings.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#127

Post by boc »

root-parent wrote: post #19

Time to short the market. We are at peak bubble. "The stock market just did something eerily similar to the dot-com bubble top in 2000" - https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/01/the-stock-market-just-did-so...

The amount of actual, hard cash revenue these companies are making is a different ballgame from the dot-com bubble.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#128

Post by xdennis »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #103
roadside_picnic wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As you likely know, rules have recently been changed that basically force many 401k funds to invest in these IPOs while simultaneously having a relatively small number of the initial IPO to be sold to the public forcing the funds to by at inflated prices. The bubble won't pop until these retirement accounts of have been raided.

What are the 401k rule changes? I am aware that indexes changed their rules

I'm pretty sure that's the change GP is referring to. But pension funds can choose to specifically exclude such companies. The Danish pension fund has already excluded SpaceX, which owns xAI. (This also probably relates to American threats of annexation of Danish territories, not just AI stuff.)

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#129

Post by ac29 »

chilipepperhott wrote: post #34
nemomarx wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least all the index funds are obligated to, right?

Most index funds wait for at least a year before adding a new listing. The only exception that I'm aware of is QQQ and SpaceX.

Not true for Vanguard's total US stock market fund (VTSAX/VTI), the largest total US stock market fund in the world. Their CRSP index only requires 20 trading days post IPO, or 5 for large caps (this has been true for many years, this is not a recent change)

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#130

Post by anonymid »

findjashua wrote: post #111
roadside_picnic wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more insidious than that. These IPOs aren't being rushed, they were waiting for all the pieces to be in place to force 401ks and other retirement plans to buy these IPOs. The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading. This rule was decided March 30, 2026 and only came into effect May 1, 2026. The pl…

almost all 401k plans offer funds based on s&p 500, not nasdaq/russell others. s&p has also halved their trading days requirement from 1 yr to 6 months, but that's still sufficient to be past the post-ipo lock-up period.

I don't think the S&P has actually made a decision yet. It is in progress, though: "The S&P Index Consultation on MegaCap IPOs" is the search term
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