I need to pull all my retirement out of the market for the next few months. I don't want to be private equity's bagholder
Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
331–340 of 476 posts
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#332Earlier quoted context omitted.
> But mainly, they are in "I need to kill whole industries to be worth it" tiers of investment. Yes agreed. Coding is a pretty big industry though in and of itself. Same with healthcare, legal, etc etc etc. Of course we have zero model today that can seriously kill an industry, but if you look at (1) how good things are today (insanely fast and rapid adoption) and (2) robust performance trends from many complimentary…
>it's kind of inevitable and I haven't really heard a coherent steel man argument for why "killing whole industries" is somehow a far-fetched idea. They don't only require "good enough to kill industries" (which is doubtful but certainly feasible), that's just step one. I think about it in terms of potential failure modes: - if models don't reach worker-substitution levels, they fail - if models reach that level, but…
If 1B people consume via personally or their employer on average $100/mo of tokens or services that solves the problem right there and that is not inconceivable whatsoever and feels like an underestimate. Repayment doesn’t imply you have to build an end to end replacement of an industry.
This also negates this whole like “you have to completely replace a human” fallacy. Why do you need to replace a human? Why not just increase the value each human brings you?
The model of open weights has been around for awhile. You have frontier labs releasing them. They are powerful and capable and track yet lag frontier models. Without massive government subsidies from probably China who did something similar with manufacturing I don’t get the idea of OSS somehow toppling the entire industry of frontier models. How would this happen? Did demand for frontier models drop after GPT-4? GPT-5? Because the cost of GPT-4 perf is maybe 100x cheaper today. You can always pay a premium for a better model (more data spend with proprietary data sources, more compute for training, more thinking budgets), and in the end, things will either go to a monopoly or prices will stabilize around the marginal costs.
Also safeguards are always important. They are thorny fundamental horrific problems and I can tell you there will be a hellscape of pain as people figure out the trivial ways to do bad things with some of the worst security practices we’ve seen. But I don’t get why this is a dealbreaker, we are using these systems everywhere and in loads bearing environments, today, and reliability and hallucination rates continue to increase / decrease.
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#333Earlier quoted context omitted.
Google was easily 10x better than any of their competition. It was effectively alone in the market. Most of us were using 56k modems to access the internet back then, Google's search returned results within a couple of seconds. Yahoo, Lycos, Excite, Alta-Vista were still loading. Then the search results themselves were so good you could often just pick the first result. They eventually added a button which just took…
Curious, why do you say that as if the "I'm Feeling Lucky" button isn't still on the homepage in 2026?
I couldn't even tell you when I used the Google search page. It's been years at least. I wouldn't be surprised if many other people also don't go there to search. I assume most search straight in the url bar.
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#334Earlier quoted context omitted.
Google was easily 10x better than any of their competition. It was effectively alone in the market. Most of us were using 56k modems to access the internet back then, Google's search returned results within a couple of seconds. Yahoo, Lycos, Excite, Alta-Vista were still loading. Then the search results themselves were so good you could often just pick the first result. They eventually added a button which just took…
Curious, why do you say that as if the "I'm Feeling Lucky" button isn't still on the homepage in 2026?
Because it is useless now.
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#335Earlier quoted context omitted.
Google is an excellent example of the companies that followed after the initial batch of big dotcom companies. They ate Yahoo's lunch. The dotcom bust was in 2000, and Google went public in 2004. I'm betting more on the successors to this initial group of AI companies. The ones that have to build actual profitable businesses.
When did Google pivot to advertising?
Before the IPO; AdSense came out in 2003. Before that they really make much money.
Simple text ads to start. It was built on MySQL, Java and C++ and became how they made most of their money.
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#336Earlier quoted context omitted.
Probably but the reality is I doubt that actually works outside of US government contracts in practice simply because Europe/et al aren't going to follow their lead.
Europe has been slowly committing economic suicide for the last 30 years by outsourcing everything to the US and China (and Russia), and it looks like maybe Europeans are finally starting to wake up to this. I wouldn't be one bit surprised if a rash of digital sovereignty movements in the near future hamper Chinese model adoption.
And yet average European citizen have a longer life with higher quality of living than US.
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#337Earlier quoted context omitted.
If we're doing historical comparisons, there was so much hype for AOL and Yahoo that drove valuations far beyond the economics. In time, the hypesters were proved wrong. In contrast, there was overwhelming doom and gloom for Google's IPO, in spite of their incredible growth and margin economics. In time, the doomers were proved wrong. There's so much doom and gloom about Anthropic that directly contradicts their asto…
"until I can get a few shares at a reasonable valuation" I doubt you will. Most likely IPO reference price will be like SpaceX's, 100x ARR or so. You're better off buying Google who own a huge chunk of Anthropic at a much saner average.
If it's 100x ARR then I'll watch from the sidelines.
But if it's 40x in October, and inference margin is strong, and revenue is still growing 20% per month, then I'm in.
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#338Up until this point, the potential for an AI bust blast radius was limited to corporate investors, but this is going to cause regular retail/401k investors to get exposure, which could have far bigger impacts on a downturn. Not to mention the insane wake-up call it is going to be for these AI stocks when 3 months after they launch they have to start making earnings calls and showing their financials. That quarter-by-…
If we're doing historical comparisons, there was so much hype for AOL and Yahoo that drove valuations far beyond the economics. In time, the hypesters were proved wrong. In contrast, there was overwhelming doom and gloom for Google's IPO, in spite of their incredible growth and margin economics. In time, the doomers were proved wrong. There's so much doom and gloom about Anthropic that directly contradicts their asto…
Ah yes, time tested and battle hardened inference margins.
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#339Up until this point, the potential for an AI bust blast radius was limited to corporate investors, but this is going to cause regular retail/401k investors to get exposure, which could have far bigger impacts on a downturn. Not to mention the insane wake-up call it is going to be for these AI stocks when 3 months after they launch they have to start making earnings calls and showing their financials. That quarter-by-…
If we're doing historical comparisons, there was so much hype for AOL and Yahoo that drove valuations far beyond the economics. In time, the hypesters were proved wrong. In contrast, there was overwhelming doom and gloom for Google's IPO, in spite of their incredible growth and margin economics. In time, the doomers were proved wrong. There's so much doom and gloom about Anthropic that directly contradicts their asto…
Anthropic is selling a commodity item that was just invented. It’s like investing in someone who is blowing lightbulb glass by hand.
We’ve already seen a startup make a chip which generates a hundred pages of text in milliseconds. When companies start bringing out hardware like that for cutting edge models, the entire business is dead. AWS will just eat the market.
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#340Earlier quoted context omitted.
Curious, why do you say that as if the "I'm Feeling Lucky" button isn't still on the homepage in 2026?
I couldn't even tell you when I used the Google search page. It's been years at least. I wouldn't be surprised if many other people also don't go there to search. I assume most search straight in the url bar.
Home pages are still a thing are are often set to google