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Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

anthropic.com

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Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#321

Post by delecti »

Avicebron wrote: post #131
QuotedForTruth wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These funds don’t invest actively (picking individual stocks). Instead they invest in indexes that track larger portions of the market. So they’ll automatically buy once the company is listed on the NASDAQ.

Why do I imagine that no one whose retirement account is about to get smoked is in place to make decisions about whether or not this is a good investment

The point of that kind of account is that most people aren't in a place to make decisions about what is or isn't a good investment.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#322

Post by johnQdeveloper »

JacobAsmuth wrote: post #299
johnQdeveloper wrote: post #287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My experience isn't consistent with it being significant (or really any) quality gains on actual real world usage for me or the team I'm on.

The plural of anecdote is not data. What are your evals telling you?

The % of accepted, actionable prompts is not up if I use Opus 4.7/4.6/4.8 if that is what you are asking.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#323

Post by epolanski »

ashdksnndck wrote: post #232
radlad wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As I recall, Amazon also famously didn't turn a profit for ages - but they were also capable of turning one much earlier than they did. Are AI companies capable of turning a profit today if they turn some knobs?

The narrative is that inference on existing models is profitable. All of the profits and many billions of additional capital invested go into training the next model, which is some multiple more expensive to train than the last. Each new model generation also leads to more revenue growth. Newer models are more compute-efficient when distilled (so could possibly be higher margin) but also they work on longer time-hori…

Wait till people find out you can have the same or close to the same output at 1/100th of a price.

You cant possibly believe we'll be just spending more and more in tokens endlessly.

And if the margins are so good for anthropic they will collapse. There's too much competition in the field.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#324

Post by sigmar »

panarky wrote: post #224
pseudosavant wrote: post #197

Up until this point, the potential for an AI bust blast radius was limited to corporate investors, but this is going to cause regular retail/401k investors to get exposure, which could have far bigger impacts on a downturn. Not to mention the insane wake-up call it is going to be for these AI stocks when 3 months after they launch they have to start making earnings calls and showing their financials. That quarter-by-…

If we're doing historical comparisons, there was so much hype for AOL and Yahoo that drove valuations far beyond the economics. In time, the hypesters were proved wrong. In contrast, there was overwhelming doom and gloom for Google's IPO, in spite of their incredible growth and margin economics. In time, the doomers were proved wrong. There's so much doom and gloom about Anthropic that directly contradicts their asto…

>I can only hope the doomer narrative dominates until I can get a few shares at a reasonable valuation.

I conjecture that some amount of the "doomer posting" is a consequence of other people realizing what you realized here and attempting to sway public sentiment for personal gain.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#325

Post by BoggleOhYeah »

mnicky wrote: post #273
arrowleaf wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most (all?) 401k plans limit you to a pre-picked list of ETFs and mutual funds you can invest in. Not to mention the standard advice for decades has been 'broad market index fund'.

Good thing is that index funds don't hold stocks at market capitalization but only at free float value. So a company whose shares are mostly held by founders, employees, and strategic investors gets a weight well below its headline valuation.

Most don’t. The one that is the center of much of the controversy around these IPOs, NASDAQ-100, doesn’t use float adjustments.

A lot of people have been using it to passively invest in AI (via QQQ).

It’s nonsensical for a variety of reasons but we live an era of the stock market just being another casino…

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#326

Post by nelox »

pseudosavant wrote: post #197

Up until this point, the potential for an AI bust blast radius was limited to corporate investors, but this is going to cause regular retail/401k investors to get exposure, which could have far bigger impacts on a downturn. Not to mention the insane wake-up call it is going to be for these AI stocks when 3 months after they launch they have to start making earnings calls and showing their financials. That quarter-by-…

Look at the P/E ratio Amazon has had for years and come back with a better argument.

[edit:typo]

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#327

Post by epolanski »

nostrademons wrote: post #164
reacharavindh wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As unlikely it is to happen at scale, as a thought process - what would happen if people start selling those index funds in a mad rush? Just drives the transaction volume because those with that new money will just buy something else in the market? I know SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI will probably be a drop in the bucket in terms of scale of these funds, (free float % etc). But, is it realistic to take the money out…

If people actually dumped index funds for cash en masse it would be catastrophic. To attach some numbers, MSFT averages about 35M shares in daily volume, and that includes all the market makers, HFTs, etc. BlackRock (iShares) owns 593M shares of MSFT and Vanguard owns another 482M. Together, the amount of shares that index funds own is about a month and a half of total trading volumes. I'd bet that such a crash would…

Market makers aren't included in those numbers, Vanguard, etc don't trade normally but on secondary markets most of the time.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#328

Post by epolanski »

chasd00 wrote: post #227
thomascountz wrote: post #28

SpaceX submitted an amendment to their S-1 today[1] [1]: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026...

The SpaceX IPO confuses me, with the kind of testing they do the stock price is going to be a roller coaster ride. Every splashdown with an explosion, even if planned, is going to impact the stock price. Are they hurting for cash? Why even IPO if you don't need the cash?

SpaceX, according to their own documents is an AI company, with 97% of their projected future income coming from it.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#329

Post by vinnymac »

radicalbyte wrote: post #296
pseudosavant wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google is an excellent example of the companies that followed after the initial batch of big dotcom companies. They ate Yahoo's lunch. The dotcom bust was in 2000, and Google went public in 2004. I'm betting more on the successors to this initial group of AI companies. The ones that have to build actual profitable businesses.

Google was easily 10x better than any of their competition. It was effectively alone in the market. Most of us were using 56k modems to access the internet back then, Google's search returned results within a couple of seconds. Yahoo, Lycos, Excite, Alta-Vista were still loading. Then the search results themselves were so good you could often just pick the first result. They eventually added a button which just took…

Curious, why do you say that as if the "I'm Feeling Lucky" button isn't still on the homepage in 2026?

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#330

Post by epolanski »

rchaud wrote: post #251
IrishTechie wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I recall thinking the same thing when Apple and Microsoft hit $1tn. Here we are less than a decade later and they’re up 3-400%.

Microsoft and Apple had decades of profitable years before hitting a trillion. AI companies are seeking trillion dollar IPOs without profits, selling a service well below its actual cost.

And they had a moat that didn't depend on a competitor not releasing a better model.
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