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The dangerous delusion of modern warfare

economist.com

51–60 of 85 posts

Re: The dangerous delusion of modern warfare

#51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, the archduke who got assassinated just before the war started.

And what did he have to say about Trump's Iran war back in 1914?

Nothing of course. But he reportedly insisted that war with russia would lead to the rise of communism.

Re: The dangerous delusion of modern warfare

#52
post #13
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suspect the plan was (and still is) to weaken authorities in Iran so that the people take over. Or have the Iranian government reach a deal that would be less favorable to them. A plan with quite long odds you could rightly say, but not as stupid as subduing them by invading them I suppose.

Trump explicitly stated that was his aim, for the people to rise up after Trump did a little long distance assassination. The plan is far more stupid than subduing Iran by invasion. "At 2:30 a.m. EST on 28 February, Donald Trump released an eight-minute video statement on Truth Social, saying that the purpose of the US strikes in Iran was effectively[vague] regime change." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war#…

He also said it was about The Bomb and nothing else. And that regime change has been achieved. And that the war is already over. Why do you feel the need to defend this stupidity?

There’s only one group of people dumber than US politicians and that’s the American people who support them.

Re: The dangerous delusion of modern warfare

#53
post #27
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump explicitly stated that was his aim, for the people to rise up after Trump did a little long distance assassination. The plan is far more stupid than subduing Iran by invasion. "At 2:30 a.m. EST on 28 February, Donald Trump released an eight-minute video statement on Truth Social, saying that the purpose of the US strikes in Iran was effectively[vague] regime change." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war#…

Not saying this is a smart plan, but how is it far more stupid than invading Iran which is basically impossible unless you are ready for tens or hundred of thousands of casualties among your own citizens?

What about not ending a thoroughly negotiated JCPOA just because it was one of Obama’s achievements?

Who will ever trust the US enough to negotiate in earnest?

Re: The dangerous delusion of modern warfare

#54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think they're this dumb, just bought by Israel. Same with the Iraq war that was obviously bogus.

Iraq was an attempt to create a democracy on the middle east and it disproved the whole leftist worldview. Not all cultures are compatibel and capable of democracy

Even I know that both Bushes were Republicans. But hey, if you ask me all Americans are complicit apart from the ones who actively oppose this regime.

Re: The dangerous delusion of modern warfare

#55
post #34

>William Owen, the editor of Military Strategy Magazine and an adviser to the British army, says that better trained and equipped armies would not be tied down in the first place. If first-rate Israeli kit and training were used against an opponent of the standard of Russia or Ukraine, he argues, $3,000 FPVs would be “mostly, if not completely, irrelevant”. Oh how much I wish Mr Owen would be sent to the front lines…

So hes partly right. The reason why drones are _so_ devastating in ukraine is that there is no air superiority. that standard "modern" way is bomb the living shit out of anything armoured, and then push forward with your own armour. Hence why ukraine needed so many javelins to stop armour and helicopters. Its also why despite the sheer amount of stuff that Iran et al threw at Isreal, it hardly got through. unlike Oma…

"Air superiority" wouldn't do anything in 2026 unless you're fighting an African tribe with ak47s in a fullscale war and even then your enemies would probably supply the tribe with some air defense systems that would cause trouble for the pilots.

Re: The dangerous delusion of modern warfare

#56
post #8

"There are other similarities between Ukraine and Iran. Both are wars instigated by the leaders of great powers in the apparent belief of easy victory. Both have developed in ways those leaders did not anticipate into something like a stalemate—stalemates in which, for Russia and America alike, a lack of victory looks increasingly like defeat. Are technological changes making the role of the defender easier? Or syste…

Learning from the failures and being able to turn lessons into hardware/weapons modifications has *always* been a deciding factor in any conflict.

What's changed is this ability is now easily accessible.

Re: The dangerous delusion of modern warfare

#57
post #31
post #8

"There are other similarities between Ukraine and Iran. Both are wars instigated by the leaders of great powers in the apparent belief of easy victory. Both have developed in ways those leaders did not anticipate into something like a stalemate—stalemates in which, for Russia and America alike, a lack of victory looks increasingly like defeat. Are technological changes making the role of the defender easier? Or syste…

"Putin was advised that Russian disinfo had worked and Ukrainians would welcome Russian troops as liberators" And where does your inside info from the Kremlin and Putin's head is coming from? Putin was raised in the KGB, I think he knows a bit how to get intel. And with secret war style he was very successful in 2014 seizing the Krim and some areas. It was likely just overconfidence in the ability of the russian army…

Sergei Beseda chief of the FSB "fifth service" was arrested after the start of the war. https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/06/20/no-infighting-here is a story I found around it. I guess we can't be definite, but that journalist in Russia was citing sources saying that the service had essentially embezzled money and made up the data about their resources on the ground in Ukraine, and misrepresented polling data they had that Russia would be welcomed by the general population.

Re: The dangerous delusion of modern warfare

#58
post #31
post #8

"There are other similarities between Ukraine and Iran. Both are wars instigated by the leaders of great powers in the apparent belief of easy victory. Both have developed in ways those leaders did not anticipate into something like a stalemate—stalemates in which, for Russia and America alike, a lack of victory looks increasingly like defeat. Are technological changes making the role of the defender easier? Or syste…

"Putin was advised that Russian disinfo had worked and Ukrainians would welcome Russian troops as liberators" And where does your inside info from the Kremlin and Putin's head is coming from? Putin was raised in the KGB, I think he knows a bit how to get intel. And with secret war style he was very successful in 2014 seizing the Krim and some areas. It was likely just overconfidence in the ability of the russian army…

> And where does your inside info from the Kremlin and Putin's head is coming from?

It's coming from the fact that troops approaching Kyiv were supplied with 3 day rations and full dress uniforms, ready to hold a parade in Kyiv. It's also coming from US intelligence (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2022/russia...). And on top of that, russian propaganda literally repeated times and times again that this war will last for 3-4 days.

> Putin was raised in the KGB, I think he knows a bit how to get intel

Are you saying he planned for 5 years of war and russian economy being destroyed and also planned for over a million casualties for his army?

> underestimating the will of the ukrainians to hold their ground in the beginning of the war

There you go, you just said it yourself. That's the "insight".

Re: The dangerous delusion of modern warfare

#59
post #8

"There are other similarities between Ukraine and Iran. Both are wars instigated by the leaders of great powers in the apparent belief of easy victory. Both have developed in ways those leaders did not anticipate into something like a stalemate—stalemates in which, for Russia and America alike, a lack of victory looks increasingly like defeat. Are technological changes making the role of the defender easier? Or syste…

> Both are wars instigated by the leaders of great powers having nukes and a lot of empty land does not make russia "great power", and their war results match this.

By your definition, there are no great military powers in the world right now.

Re: The dangerous delusion of modern warfare

#60
post #4

Ever since I consciously read and listened to people talking on tv and radio, so somewhere in the nineties, I heard countless military strategists explain why the war mongers in the USA were stupid to even think about subduing Iran by attacking them. Geography alone makes it impossible. The current situation is not a consequence of modern warfare. It’s a consequence of the many layers of hubris, stupidity and arrogan…

I suspect the plan was (and still is) to weaken authorities in Iran so that the people take over. Or have the Iranian government reach a deal that would be less favorable to them. A plan with quite long odds you could rightly say, but not as stupid as subduing them by invading them I suppose.

It would help if the US didn't ignore the actual protests in Iran and haven't let the Iranian regime slaughter the protesters in hundreds or even thousands.
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