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The dangerous delusion of modern warfare

economist.com

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Re: The dangerous delusion of modern warfare

#31

Post by lukan »

beloch wrote: post #8

"There are other similarities between Ukraine and Iran. Both are wars instigated by the leaders of great powers in the apparent belief of easy victory. Both have developed in ways those leaders did not anticipate into something like a stalemate—stalemates in which, for Russia and America alike, a lack of victory looks increasingly like defeat. Are technological changes making the role of the defender easier? Or syste…

"Putin was advised that Russian disinfo had worked and Ukrainians would welcome Russian troops as liberators"

And where does your inside info from the Kremlin and Putin's head is coming from?

Putin was raised in the KGB, I think he knows a bit how to get intel. And with secret war style he was very successful in 2014 seizing the Krim and some areas.

It was likely just overconfidence in the ability of the russian army in a conventional war and underestimating the will of the ukrainians to hold their ground in the beginning of the war.

If that battle in the beginning would have turned out different, Kiew would likely have fallen and then the war would have been largely over in a few days

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Antonov_Airport

Not many believed, myself included, that Ukraine was strong enough to hold of the russian army - but they did. And now both sides use Drones heavily.

Re: The dangerous delusion of modern warfare

#32

Post by jim33442 »

warumdarum wrote: post #21
jim33442 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think they're this dumb, just bought by Israel. Same with the Iraq war that was obviously bogus.

Iraq was an attempt to create a democracy on the middle east and it disproved the whole leftist worldview. Not all cultures are compatibel and capable of democracy

Iraq war had bipartisan support, or more right-wing if anything. Any high-level politician saying we can install a democracy there was probably not serious about it.

Re: The dangerous delusion of modern warfare

#33

Post by decimalenough »

accidentallfact wrote: post #20
spiderfarmer wrote: post #3

Ever since I consciously read and listened to people talking on tv and radio, so somewhere in the nineties, I heard countless military strategists explain why the war mongers in the USA were stupid to even think about subduing Iran by attacking them. Geography alone makes it impossible. The current situation is not a consequence of modern warfare. It’s a consequence of the many layers of hubris, stupidity and arrogan…

From what I've read, Franz Ferdinand was the only one with any say in the matter, who could foresee the result of the war. So there is really nothing new about this.

The archduke, the band, or some other soothsayer who shares the name?

Re: The dangerous delusion of modern warfare

#34

Post by Arodex »

>William Owen, the editor of Military Strategy Magazine and an adviser to the British army, says that better trained and equipped armies would not be tied down in the first place. If first-rate Israeli kit and training were used against an opponent of the standard of Russia or Ukraine, he argues, $3,000 FPVs would be “mostly, if not completely, irrelevant”.

Oh how much I wish Mr Owen would be sent to the front lines to see for himself how irrelevant he can make 3000$ drones.

Re: The dangerous delusion of modern warfare

#35

Post by _bohm »

jim33442 wrote: post #29
_bohm wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, Israel played a hand here, but it’s hard to believe they’re getting exactly what they wanted out of all of this either. Regime change does not seem like it’s coming any time soon. Unless that happens, any reductions in Iran’s capacity will be temporary. As for the Iraq war, Israel was supportive, but it would be incorrect to say the war was at their behest.

I don't see why Israel would want regime change in Iran. The current one may hate them, but it's keeping the country poor and weak. Previous regime was starting to be a threat.

Who do you think the previous regime was? The Shah was installed by the US and was friendly to Israel. Under the Islamic Republic, Iran has been hostile to Israel and funded proxy organizations that have been in conflict with it.

Re: The dangerous delusion of modern warfare

#36

Post by accidentallfact »

decimalenough wrote: post #33
accidentallfact wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From what I've read, Franz Ferdinand was the only one with any say in the matter, who could foresee the result of the war. So there is really nothing new about this.

The archduke, the band, or some other soothsayer who shares the name?

Yes, the archduke who got assassinated just before the war started.

Re: The dangerous delusion of modern warfare

#37

Post by 3683826312819 »

warumdarum wrote: post #11
spiderfarmer wrote: post #3

Ever since I consciously read and listened to people talking on tv and radio, so somewhere in the nineties, I heard countless military strategists explain why the war mongers in the USA were stupid to even think about subduing Iran by attacking them. Geography alone makes it impossible. The current situation is not a consequence of modern warfare. It’s a consequence of the many layers of hubris, stupidity and arrogan…

[flagged]

[dead]

Re: The dangerous delusion of modern warfare

#38

Post by spiderfarmer »

pingou wrote: post #4
spiderfarmer wrote: post #3

Ever since I consciously read and listened to people talking on tv and radio, so somewhere in the nineties, I heard countless military strategists explain why the war mongers in the USA were stupid to even think about subduing Iran by attacking them. Geography alone makes it impossible. The current situation is not a consequence of modern warfare. It’s a consequence of the many layers of hubris, stupidity and arrogan…

I suspect the plan was (and still is) to weaken authorities in Iran so that the people take over. Or have the Iranian government reach a deal that would be less favorable to them. A plan with quite long odds you could rightly say, but not as stupid as subduing them by invading them I suppose.

After all this, you still believe there’s a plan? At what age did you give up on Santa Claus?

Re: The dangerous delusion of modern warfare

#39

Post by jim33442 »

_bohm wrote: post #35
jim33442 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see why Israel would want regime change in Iran. The current one may hate them, but it's keeping the country poor and weak. Previous regime was starting to be a threat.

Who do you think the previous regime was? The Shah was installed by the US and was friendly to Israel. Under the Islamic Republic, Iran has been hostile to Israel and funded proxy organizations that have been in conflict with it.

Shah Pahlavi was installed by the US but soured with us later on. OPEC involvement was a big part of that. By the end of his reign, he was openly calling the US a puppet of Israel and criticizing both countries' actions there, and the US considered Iran a free agent.

Re: The dangerous delusion of modern warfare

#40

Post by _bohm »

jim33442 wrote: post #39
_bohm wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who do you think the previous regime was? The Shah was installed by the US and was friendly to Israel. Under the Islamic Republic, Iran has been hostile to Israel and funded proxy organizations that have been in conflict with it.

Shah Pahlavi was installed by the US but soured with us later on. OPEC involvement was a big part of that. By the end of his reign, he was openly calling the US a puppet of Israel and criticizing both countries' actions there, and the US considered Iran a free agent.

I think an honest assessment of the history reveals that the Islamic Republic has been far more hostile to Israel and far stabler than the Shah, who oversaw a deeply unpopular monarchy and was deposed by his own people
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