The dangerous delusion of modern warfare • Hacker News Board

Re: The dangerous delusion of modern warfare

#41

Post by LAC-Tech » Sun, May 31, 2026, 11:01 AM UTC

jim33442 wrote: post #12

LAC-Tech wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I put this down to incompetence too. I know this is HN which mostly stakes it's claim on one side of the "culture war", but that is not where I am coming from - incompetence is incompetence, and we see that through the 2024 administration. (And I would argue - probably without much support here - a lot more incompetent than the 2016 administration which was unique in not actually starting new wars).

It's not even a partisan issue because mainstream Democrats support the war too, even though some of them are talking out of both sides of their mouths. They approved the emergency military aid to Israel right before.

They are compromised by Israel enough to not come out strongly against it, but not enough that I think they would have gone ahead with it - you need Epstein level blackmail for that.

Re: The dangerous delusion of modern warfare

#42

Post by KaiserPro » Sun, May 31, 2026, 11:04 AM UTC

Arodex wrote: post #34

>William Owen, the editor of Military Strategy Magazine and an adviser to the British army, says that better trained and equipped armies would not be tied down in the first place. If first-rate Israeli kit and training were used against an opponent of the standard of Russia or Ukraine, he argues, $3,000 FPVs would be “mostly, if not completely, irrelevant”. Oh how much I wish Mr Owen would be sent to the front lines…

So hes partly right.

The reason why drones are _so_ devastating in ukraine is that there is no air superiority.

that standard "modern" way is bomb the living shit out of anything armoured, and then push forward with your own armour. Hence why ukraine needed so many javelins to stop armour and helicopters.

Its also why despite the sheer amount of stuff that Iran et al threw at Isreal, it hardly got through. unlike Oman or UAE. (However thats not actually apples to apples.)

What isn't said is guerilla warefare with drones is devastating.

Re: The dangerous delusion of modern warfare

#43

Post by lelanthran » Sun, May 31, 2026, 11:06 AM UTC

watwut wrote: post #17

warumdarum wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

If you mean Iran, they were actually following agreement in JCPOA and not building nukes, until Trump broke it. And they begotiated while USA bombed them twice during negotiations. This situation was created by USA and comment rightfully focuses on people who created it. > brown people cant be actors only acted upon Did you read some different comment? Cause nothing in that comment implies this. But in fact, this cha…

I'm not sure what point you are replying to; my reading of GP's (somewhat incoherent) post is that Iran has more in common with Nazi Germany than it does with (most) of western civilisation.

If we're working on a scale of 1-10 for "how close is a ruling government to Nazi Germany", Iran is maybe a 7 or 8.

The US, despite Trump's best efforts, is still only at a relatively benign 3 or 4.

Re: The dangerous delusion of modern warfare

#44

Post by Forgeties79 » Sun, May 31, 2026, 11:08 AM UTC

beloch wrote: post #8

"There are other similarities between Ukraine and Iran. Both are wars instigated by the leaders of great powers in the apparent belief of easy victory. Both have developed in ways those leaders did not anticipate into something like a stalemate—stalemates in which, for Russia and America alike, a lack of victory looks increasingly like defeat. Are technological changes making the role of the defender easier? Or syste…

> and Ukrainians would welcome Russian troops as liberators while Zelensky's government would fold immediately.

It is wild how many conflicts involve this blunder. I can’t think of a single major example where the advisors were right. It’s such a great example of believing your own propaganda and/or being too afraid to actually look under the hood of your claims to your leader.

Autocracy tends to breed lying yes men near the top I suppose.

Re: The dangerous delusion of modern warfare

#45

Post by iammjm » Sun, May 31, 2026, 11:09 AM UTC

Arodex wrote: post #34

>William Owen, the editor of Military Strategy Magazine and an adviser to the British army, says that better trained and equipped armies would not be tied down in the first place. If first-rate Israeli kit and training were used against an opponent of the standard of Russia or Ukraine, he argues, $3,000 FPVs would be “mostly, if not completely, irrelevant”. Oh how much I wish Mr Owen would be sent to the front lines…

What "kit and training" is he even referring to? What let's you detect and destroy multiple small moving targets coming at you at various and unpredictable angles and speeds?? Oh and it also needs to be cheap and light-weight enough so you can equip infantry with it. AFAIK, currently there are no such systems. Unless he means shotguns and single-use net launchers, which are a last-resort thing you don't really want to rely on. And it's not for the lack of trying; it's just a very difficult problem to solve. And the problem will only get worse as drones are becoming quicker and gain more range. Already there are quadcopter drones reaching speeds of 500km/h; quadcopters with ranges of 50km+; quadcopters deployed from balloons at heights of 5km; remotely-deployed quadcopters from naval and ground drones ... and that's just one category of drones, not to mention wing-type mid-range drones now wrecking havoc at russian rear logistics at 100km+ ranges and long-range drone destroying infrastructure at 500km+ ranges. That's why the only ways of survival are concealment, digging deep underground, and turning anything that moves above ground into mad-max type porcupine monstrosities meant to absorb those fpv-drones, with varying success.

Re: The dangerous delusion of modern warfare

#46

Post by watwut » Sun, May 31, 2026, 11:15 AM UTC

warumdarum wrote: post #28

watwut wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you mean Iran, they were actually following agreement in JCPOA and not building nukes, until Trump broke it. And they begotiated while USA bombed them twice during negotiations. This situation was created by USA and comment rightfully focuses on people who created it. > brown people cant be actors only acted upon Did you read some different comment? Cause nothing in that comment implies this. But in fact, this cha…

Are you at all aware of the reguons history and the endless proxxy war between suni and shia?

Yes I am aware of regions history. Nothing in that goes against what I wrote. I am also aware of UAE, Saudi Arabia and Israel's history or recent actions. And of American involvement in region. Are you aware of ongoing proxy war between UAE and Saudi?

You dont get to tear down nuclear agreement that was followed, then bomb twice during negotiations and then pretend the whole thing is about nuclear concern other side caused. And you dont get then try to shift the topic from nuclear to proxy war between everyone and everyone in that region. And if you are looking for the "good vs bad" division in this war, all I see is bunch of dictatorships, countries directly or indirectly engaged in current genocides and invasions. And country that caused this particular war and is in the process to become like that too.

I am also aware and American actions in Greenland, murders in pacific and Venezuela. I am also aware of masculine insecurity and its relation to "starting wars to make us feel cool and powerful" factor of the situation.

Re: The dangerous delusion of modern warfare

#47

Post by jim33442 » Sun, May 31, 2026, 11:20 AM UTC

_bohm wrote: post #40

jim33442 wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shah Pahlavi was installed by the US but soured with us later on. OPEC involvement was a big part of that. By the end of his reign, he was openly calling the US a puppet of Israel and criticizing both countries' actions there, and the US considered Iran a free agent.

I think an honest assessment of the history reveals that the Islamic Republic has been far more hostile to Israel and far stabler than the Shah, who oversaw a deeply unpopular monarchy and was deposed by his own people

I don't disagree with this, it's just that there's no reason to assume Israel simply wants the least hostile Iranian government. We never saw a real effort to replace the Islamic Republic, not even now. Likewise there was never an attempt to replace Hamas in the Palestinian territories.

Well also, about Pahlavi being deposed by his own people, who really knows.

Re: The dangerous delusion of modern warfare

#48

Post by orwin » Sun, May 31, 2026, 11:20 AM UTC

like_any_other wrote: post #16

beloch wrote: post #8

"There are other similarities between Ukraine and Iran. Both are wars instigated by the leaders of great powers in the apparent belief of easy victory. Both have developed in ways those leaders did not anticipate into something like a stalemate—stalemates in which, for Russia and America alike, a lack of victory looks increasingly like defeat. Are technological changes making the role of the defender easier? Or syste…

Trump attacked Iran because Israel was going to attack Iran: Rubio says US struck Iran fearing it would retaliate for Israeli attack - https://abcnews.com/Politics/rubio-us-struck-iran-fearing-re... Part of a long trend: Israeli Operatives Who Aided Harvey Weinstein Collected Information on Former Obama Administration Officials to undermine the Iran Nuclear Deal - https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/israeli-oper…

> Trump attacked Iran because Israel was going to attack Iran

When Israel attacked Iran in 2025, Iran was very, very clear that they did not consider it an attack from the US and did not retaliate against US assets. The US choose to support israel with intel and weapons, and Iran still didn't strike at US interests. Then the US joined forces with israel to push for bigger concessions from Iran just before the ceasefire (that the US broke 8 month later, once again during peace talks).

So do not act as if Israel pushed the US into this war. This was a political and strategical choice the US made, and you should own it. People who were silent on the 2025 bombardment and are now saying "we shouldn't fight Israel war" are to me hypocrites.

Re: The dangerous delusion of modern warfare

#49

Post by decimalenough » Sun, May 31, 2026, 11:43 AM UTC

accidentallfact wrote: post #36

decimalenough wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The archduke, the band, or some other soothsayer who shares the name?

Yes, the archduke who got assassinated just before the war started.

And what did he have to say about Trump's Iran war back in 1914?

Re: The dangerous delusion of modern warfare

#50

Post by nfkhd67 » Sun, May 31, 2026, 11:47 AM UTC

nkrisc wrote: post #14

beloch wrote: post #8

"There are other similarities between Ukraine and Iran. Both are wars instigated by the leaders of great powers in the apparent belief of easy victory. Both have developed in ways those leaders did not anticipate into something like a stalemate—stalemates in which, for Russia and America alike, a lack of victory looks increasingly like defeat. Are technological changes making the role of the defender easier? Or syste…

It will be interesting (and scary) to see weapons technology developed in near real time for the conflict that is actually happening, as opposed to the one you thought would happen 15 years ago.

The universe already created microbes. Check out how fast they can evolve.

The chimp troupe is full of itself. Its intelligence and "innovations" are highly overated. Covid brought the whole world to its knees. No intelligence or drones required.

As Lynn Margulis famously said - we are not the main show.