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I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit

simonwillison.net

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Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit

#151

Post by hansmayer »

browningstreet wrote: post #80
trjordan wrote: post #11

They've got, ballpark, $5t to $10t to make back in the next 5 years, or the hardware buildouts will start getting written down. This means we're going to need $1t+ per year in spending, per year, on tokens. 200m knowledge workers in the world, 30m developers. We're talking about a world where you need 5% of every knowledge workers salary to go into tokens. 20% if you're a developer. That's a _huge_ shift. Most people…

Somehow Uber and WeWork survived the same kind of grand projections that they never met.

Funny you should mention Uber. What was it their COO said recently about the AI costs?

Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit

#152

Post by simonw »

layer8 wrote: post #120
regularfry wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The bottleneck has moved from producing a thing that works to knowing that the thing was the right thing to build. The more of the latter they can take on, the fewer knowledge workers are needed at all . So rather than 5% of every knowledge worker's salary going into tokens, 100% of the knowledge worker's total employment cost goes into tokens and you get a 20x productivity boost as a theoretical minimum across those…

Who pays for that value, and from what, if all knowledge workers lose their jobs? It sounds like the economy would largely reduce to the small minority class of independently wealthy people.

The more time I spend using agent tools the less I worry about knowledge worker job loss.

It takes a skilled knowledge worker to use these things.

Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit

#153

Post by rvz »

layer8 wrote: post #120
regularfry wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The bottleneck has moved from producing a thing that works to knowing that the thing was the right thing to build. The more of the latter they can take on, the fewer knowledge workers are needed at all . So rather than 5% of every knowledge worker's salary going into tokens, 100% of the knowledge worker's total employment cost goes into tokens and you get a 20x productivity boost as a theoretical minimum across those…

Who pays for that value, and from what, if all knowledge workers lose their jobs? It sounds like the economy would largely reduce to the small minority class of independently wealthy people.

> Who pays for that value, and from what, if all knowledge workers lose their jobs?

They do not care unless these companies can get a bailout.

UBI only exists for companies that are too big to fail. Case in point, 2008 and SVB when there was too much money on the line.

One of the AI companies attempted to guarantee themselves a way for the government to bail them out if they were close to defaulting on the debt from the data center build out.

Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit

#154

Post by layer8 »

YetAnotherNick wrote: post #65
trjordan wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From the verge: https://archive.is/kU4Zg > Gartner forecasts that large AI companies would need to earn cumulatively close to $7 trillion in AI-driven revenue through 2029, which is close to $2 trillion per year by the end of the period. In order to achieve “historic returns,” the providers would need to earn nearly $8.2 trillion in the same period.

Those numbers don't even track even in the same sentence. If it is $2T/year by the end of 2029, it would be something < $6T cumulative in 3 years.

“Through” 2029 is a bit more than three and a half years. The $2T are likely the yearly average of the $7T in that period.

Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit

#155

Post by seanp2k2 »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #62
trjordan wrote: post #11

They've got, ballpark, $5t to $10t to make back in the next 5 years, or the hardware buildouts will start getting written down. This means we're going to need $1t+ per year in spending, per year, on tokens. 200m knowledge workers in the world, 30m developers. We're talking about a world where you need 5% of every knowledge workers salary to go into tokens. 20% if you're a developer. That's a _huge_ shift. Most people…

> We're talking about a world where you need 5% of every knowledge workers salary to go into tokens. They are assuming ~10% global GDP growth instead of ~3%. You probably don't need the same %s if the pie grows a ton. I'm highly skeptical we get that growth, but if you aren't, it makes it easier to digest.

And yet the job everyone loves to hate, the humble "burger flipper", continues to resist automation yet command minimum wage labor rates. This future of either being a CEO of a company consisting primarily of AI agents building some monthly subscription-based solution to some trivial digital chores OR manual labor that isn't [yet] fiscally viable to automate seems quite bleak. We'd also need a ton of robot technicians and manufacturing that the US has neither the educational and training institutions to support nor the will of the population to fill. Given the ongoing war on immigration, visas, and foreign-made hardware, if this continues, good luck.

Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit

#156

Post by so_it_be »

bigbuppo wrote: post #136
smokel wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AutoCAD is $175 per user per month [1]. [1] https://www.autodesk.com/products/autocad/buy

AutoCAD is still the budget-friendly CAD program it has always been. You don't build big boats in AutoCAD.

Except LLM's even with Vision are still useless at AutoCAD let alone Revit (please dont quote SCAD LLM's at me, useless). Knowledge based approaches still win.

I might agree "AutoCAD" is the current level LLM's are at, but wait until your design departments discovers "Revit", its another ballpark (in wasted cots, engineers on site still get "clashes").

Revit costs are high, and the end results are marginally better - but local LLM's tokens are cheaper 24/7 at "AutoCAD" level - "Revit" level tokens will make Ubers CTO/COO weep harder than they already do. While producing results no better than "Revit" does (engineers still face "clashes").

Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit

#157

Post by everdrive »

simonw wrote: post #85
smt88 wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

white collar*, not color What does ICP mean?

Insane Clown Posse, though given the context here probably Ideal Customer Profile.

The similarities are quite stunning, though, as I'm sure both sets of ICPs have no idea how LLMs work.

Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit

#158

Post by layer8 »

whatshisface wrote: post #142
layer8 wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who pays for that value, and from what, if all knowledge workers lose their jobs? It sounds like the economy would largely reduce to the small minority class of independently wealthy people.

There were no knowledge workers in the middle ages.

There wasn’t 20x value to pay for in the middle ages either.

Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit

#159

Post by hamdingers »

121789 wrote: post #95
browningstreet wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Somehow Uber and WeWork survived the same kind of grand projections that they never met.

uber sure....but how did wework survive? they are a smoldering husk of a failed company looted by its founder

I'm sitting in one right now and don't see any smoldering...

Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit

#160

Post by kilroy123 »

TimTheTinker wrote: post #117
trjordan wrote: post #11

They've got, ballpark, $5t to $10t to make back in the next 5 years, or the hardware buildouts will start getting written down. This means we're going to need $1t+ per year in spending, per year, on tokens. 200m knowledge workers in the world, 30m developers. We're talking about a world where you need 5% of every knowledge workers salary to go into tokens. 20% if you're a developer. That's a _huge_ shift. Most people…

I thought Anthropic and OpenAI's combined CapEx has been source: https://isaiprofitable.com/

That site needs Apple on the list. ;-)
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