61–70 of 1001 posts
They've got, ballpark, $5t to $10t to make back in the next 5 years, or the hardware buildouts will start getting written down. This means we're going to need $1t+ per year in spending, per year, on tokens. 200m knowledge workers in the world, 30m developers. We're talking about a world where you need 5% of every knowledge workers salary to go into tokens. 20% if you're a developer. That's a _huge_ shift. Most people…
[deleted]
They've got, ballpark, $5t to $10t to make back in the next 5 years, or the hardware buildouts will start getting written down. This means we're going to need $1t+ per year in spending, per year, on tokens. 200m knowledge workers in the world, 30m developers. We're talking about a world where you need 5% of every knowledge workers salary to go into tokens. 20% if you're a developer. That's a _huge_ shift. Most people…
They are assuming ~10% global GDP growth instead of ~3%. You probably don't need the same %s if the pie grows a ton.
I'm highly skeptical we get that growth, but if you aren't, it makes it easier to digest.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Have you tried the large open source code models? I use glm-5.1 and occasionally deep seek v4. They are as good or better than Claude's latest models. And significantly cheaper. I've converted 3 of my engineer friends as well. All three have dropped their $200 month plans they had with anthropic. We've all been a bit shocked at just how good these models are now. If you "have" tried GLM (I specifically find it shocki…
I use GLM-5.1. It's good enough for personal stuff. It doesn't compare to the latest Opus I use at work. You can certainly argue I don't need Opus for work, but there is clearly a difference. Also, at least with z.ai, GLM-5.1 is s l o w! After using Claude at work, I get really impatient with GLM-5.1 at home. When doing "true" vibe coding (i.e. not really examining the code), Opus is a ton faster (easily 5x). But yea…
right now everyone is using latest and greatest to do dumb stuff like that. that would change fast if companies start caring about costs.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> $5t to $10t to make back in the next 5 years Wait what? They spent 2 order of magnitude less on hardware.
From the verge: https://archive.is/kU4Zg > Gartner forecasts that large AI companies would need to earn cumulatively close to $7 trillion in AI-driven revenue through 2029, which is close to $2 trillion per year by the end of the period. In order to achieve “historic returns,” the providers would need to earn nearly $8.2 trillion in the same period.
> Anthropic are strongly rumored to be about to have their first profitable quarter. Is that quarter same as any other quarter in terms of infrastructure costs (e.g. are there any temporary discounts happening coincidentally)?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Usage costs will come down with better hardware. Hardware is improving rapidly each generation.
That trend held true for the past three years, but it doesn't feel as safe to me now. But memory costs are going way up. And both OpenAI and Anthropic bumped up the price of their frontier models in April.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> $5t to $10t to make back in the next 5 years Wait what? They spent 2 order of magnitude less on hardware.
From the verge: https://archive.is/kU4Zg > Gartner forecasts that large AI companies would need to earn cumulatively close to $7 trillion in AI-driven revenue through 2029, which is close to $2 trillion per year by the end of the period. In order to achieve “historic returns,” the providers would need to earn nearly $8.2 trillion in the same period.
Everyone's agency is 100% captured by belief in Wall Street. Too few We'll continue to have consent manufactured via media platforms and in 3 years no one will bat an eye at these companies being worth $12 trillion as Altman and Musk climb two ladders holding a "mission accomplished" banner.
200$ per month per seat is nothing . A single 3D CAD license pack for the guys in our R&D group costs multiple thousands of dollars per seat, per month. It's about time software seats get some love too.
How many guys is that? Every single white collar worker is in the AI ICP (customer profile). edit: typo
What does ICP mean?
They've got, ballpark, $5t to $10t to make back in the next 5 years, or the hardware buildouts will start getting written down. This means we're going to need $1t+ per year in spending, per year, on tokens. 200m knowledge workers in the world, 30m developers. We're talking about a world where you need 5% of every knowledge workers salary to go into tokens. 20% if you're a developer. That's a _huge_ shift. Most people…
Simple - you make them work 2x, 5x, or 10x more hours.