Companies are kool-aid drinking now due to hype, but given how much they're spending, if they don't see REAL, BIG wins from it soon, they're going to scale it back quickly and switch to Chinese models. Claude isn't worth the API cost for a lot of development work, and once companies have had time to collect and crunch data they'll see this.
I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
71–80 of 1001 posts
Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#72> Anthropic are strongly rumored to be about to have their first profitable quarter. Is that quarter same as any other quarter in terms of infrastructure costs (e.g. are there any temporary discounts happening coincidentally)?
Didn't xAI basically donate the compute for that quarter so Anthropic could get to say they turned a profit?
The SpaceX S-1 says they're charging Anthropic $1.25b a month.
Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#73They've got, ballpark, $5t to $10t to make back in the next 5 years, or the hardware buildouts will start getting written down. This means we're going to need $1t+ per year in spending, per year, on tokens. 200m knowledge workers in the world, 30m developers. We're talking about a world where you need 5% of every knowledge workers salary to go into tokens. 20% if you're a developer. That's a _huge_ shift. Most people…
Source on 200 million knowledge workers worldwide? My understanding is that it's just above 1 billion. I dont think a billion subscriptions at $1000/yr is out of the question but it might take a decade to get roiling
A billion? Really? At 200M you’re already including a lot of people that stretch the definition of knowledge worker.
Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#74Earlier quoted context omitted.
Large enterprises make deals and won’t be paying 2,180.16$ either. Just like with AWS
That doesn't seem to be the case. From what I've seen enterprise deals get API pricing now. Have you seen evidence that's not true?
I do know of moderate-size companies deploying OSS LLMs on their own GPU clusters, for ownership/security/maybe cost reasons. I'm somewhat surprised F500 companies are apparently just handing over all their data to the model providers.
Could be fantastic for small shops while it lasts. The big guys have to pay 10x for precious tokens.
Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#75Earlier quoted context omitted.
For coding you always want to go with the best model in the category, not something that would be the best model if we went 1 year back which GLM 5.1 is, and I'm saying that as a big fan of GLM cause I run a translation site where GLM is good enough for the price. Most of the money right now is in coding. Openai and Anthropic just have to be 6 months ahead of SOTA open source models and they'll capture most of the en…
Yes I'm an engineer (20 years most in games/graphics industry) and only use it for code. I've been using glm 5.1 this week a lot. I went in expecting another "decent" but not really "up to standard" open source model. I highly doubt I'll ever use Claude again. I think you are wrong about Claude being any significant level better
I've been mostly coding with GLM-5.1 as well and I agree with you. DeepSeek V4 Flash is another very good surprise. Incredibly cheap, fast and effective.
Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#76200$ per month per seat is nothing . A single 3D CAD license pack for the guys in our R&D group costs multiple thousands of dollars per seat, per month. It's about time software seats get some love too.
CATIA licenses which are the most expensive I've seen are roughly $600/month per user. Where are you seeing "thousands of dollars per seat"?
Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#77Earlier quoted context omitted.
Here is a serious question.. Can we sell into the hype cycle and on the way down with this: https://safebots.ai/costs.html
I asked claude to generate a frontend and it made the same template. Same san serif and serif fonts together. Same colors. Same typography. Same layout and animations even. It’s wild how similar it is. No not similar it’s the same damn thing.
I’ve seen the same dashboard for a dozen custom web applications now, including a couple I had it make for me.
It really does have a particular lane for each chore, and it’s reproducible.
Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#78> $2,180.16 worth of tokens for $200 “Tokens” don’t have an intrisic cost or value. Saying that I used $2,180.16 worth of tokens is like relying on the salesperson to convince me I’m getting a billion dollars worth of pots and pans for $19.99. I think it’s funny how we are throwing critical thinking out the window when it comes to evaluating biased sources of info.
Lol. They obviously have intrinsic cost, the floor being the cost of electricity. It’s hilarious how we are throwing critical thinking out the window when it comes to evaluating biased sources of info.
Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#79They've got, ballpark, $5t to $10t to make back in the next 5 years, or the hardware buildouts will start getting written down. This means we're going to need $1t+ per year in spending, per year, on tokens. 200m knowledge workers in the world, 30m developers. We're talking about a world where you need 5% of every knowledge workers salary to go into tokens. 20% if you're a developer. That's a _huge_ shift. Most people…
> unless we figure out how to make developers 2x, 5x, 10x as productive on stuff that matters, this isn't going to play out well. Simple - you make them work 2x, 5x, or 10x more hours.
There are not enough hours to do that
Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#80They've got, ballpark, $5t to $10t to make back in the next 5 years, or the hardware buildouts will start getting written down. This means we're going to need $1t+ per year in spending, per year, on tokens. 200m knowledge workers in the world, 30m developers. We're talking about a world where you need 5% of every knowledge workers salary to go into tokens. 20% if you're a developer. That's a _huge_ shift. Most people…
Somehow Uber and WeWork survived the same kind of grand projections that they never met.