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Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

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Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Throwing in pro sports is at least harmless for people who don't care about pro sports.

Enough people do care about pro sports that someone who doesn't still needs to worry about being caught in a riot should something like this happen. (they already worry about riots for real wins/losses)

There's also known relationship between sport betting and domestic violence.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#312

[flagged]

There are entirely practical reasons that "private decisions of adults" can worsen society as a whole. We need laws and we can debate about nudging that line back and forth, the answers aren't easy. But acting like there shouldn't be a line is nonsensical.

Acting like taking action doesn't have negative consequences is also nonsensical. There is a reason why we consider (Alcohol) Prohibition bad public policy. It was a complete disaster. Somehow those that wish to control others always forget this. These are literally the situations for which the phrase, "the cure is worse than the disease" was coined.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No fortune 500 CEO is going to postpone a product launch so they can win $5,000 on polymarket. No, but a low paid frontline worker with the ability to throw a last minute wrench into the gears absolutely would.

They can already do this easily with the stock market. Usually though people's pay/power directly correlates with how badly they can screw the company if they go (legally) rogue. But anyone can get a job at XYZ, buy puts, and go and set the factory on fire the next day. Betting markets don't change the fact that you'll be arrested, except that you'll be arrested for a few thousand dollars rather than whatever you can…

The difference is if someone sets fire to a factory that fire will be investigated and odds are that person will be caught (not always, but few people know how to set a fire that large and cover their tracks). By contracts someone who works in the factory is much more likely to be able to figure out how to "have an accident" doing something they normally do, everyone knows it is then but they just get a "do better next time" talking to, and the factory throws up some more guards.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#314
post #91

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

Very close already. Death threats went to this journalist; seems someone bet on missile hits. https://factkeepers.com/polymarket-gamblers-vow-to-kill-jour... It also incentivizes leaks from insiders, sometimes endangering others. A soldier was charged for betting on a military operation. https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-soldier-charged-using-clas... And of course throwing pro sports, but that's been happening for ag…

It also substantially changes the definition of who's an insider. Polymarket has bets for random things like a particular word being used by an announcer. Suddenly the announcer is an insider on that bet.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#315

I don't usually see advertisements, but I was in a position recently to see a real-life television stream, and I was quite surprised to see them run an advertisement for Kalshi. I was pretty surprised that something like this would be advertised to normal people. I'd half expect the next ad to be for a hitman, or for beating your wife, or something. Seems crazy that this is tolerated whatsoever.

In the early 2000s major sports didn't even want to run "enjoy a vacation to Las Vegas" ads because of the loose connection to gambling.

Now they encourage users to bet as part of the commentary.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#316
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought this one was the most interesting: ‘Hairdryer or lighter?’: French police look at claim of sensor tampering to win weather bets https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/23/hairdryer-or-l...

Whoever did that deserves a few years in prison. Normally I'm not too much of a friend of draconian BS - but accurate reports of temperature, air pressure and wind speed are incredibly important for the safety of air travel. It's bad enough when such systems fail due to whatever sort of issue, but the last thing aviation needs is people intentionally blowing holes into the swiss cheese security model -.-

Also bad if such crucial information is based on a single sensor with barely any physical security

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As long as he didn't place any bets, I think what he did is totally fine. If I find out my friends placed bets on whether I'll say X tomorrow, I'm not obligated to act as if I didn't know.

So is it also okay if his friends placed a bet and shared the profits with them?

Don't quibble on details. The point is that as long as he didn't profit from the bets, he is free to mess around that way.

This isn't share price manipulation.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#318
People wonder how bad prediction markets are going to get. I think it's going to get a lot worse. If left unchecked it'll en up like the 1997 paper "Assassination politics" describes:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Bell#%22Assassination_Poli...

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#319
post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Let's not pretend that Spain of all places is caring about horribly destructive psuedo-gambling. Is this intended to imply that Spain has particularly high levels of sports betting, or issues with gambling? All the stats I can see suggest the opposite, and there's already plenty of tight restrictions on local gambling businesses (sports sponsorship ban, welcome bonus ban, almost no public advertising, etc). At a qu…

>Is this intended to imply that Spain has particularly high levels of sports betting La Quiniela, a lottery based on soccer matches' results. Every middle aged man filled some weekly forms (win for locals/draw/win for foreigners) as if it was a religion. If you matched 14 from 15 results (much better with 15), you could get a big prize. Also, Jai Alai matches on the North of Spain had huge bets on results too. Younge…

In practice La Quiniela works more like a lottery than betting, though. No immediacy, no lights and sounds, no adrenalin rush. I don't think there's much risk of people falling into severe addiction by playing that.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#320
post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Gambling creates addicts, and addicts are more likely to act in desperation. They might steal, default on debt, or kill themselves and are less productive members of society. I bet societies with lots of addicts are much less likely to thrive because they carry a ton of dead weight. Thus we should ban or at least curb gambling because it hurts us all in general.

We legalized online gambling, the end result is more and earlier addiction and the added tax does not outweigh the societal cost due to loss of jobs, added crime and secondary effects of broken families on monetary, let alone ethical grounds. And they had to change the law to have more bite due to gambling sites mostly ignoring the required checks on addicted and heavy usage players, because profits have to be made. At least they got rid of the insane commercials since that's what most normal people complained about.
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