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Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

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Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#301
post #202

Good. Just naming things differently does not work in other countries. If it quacks like a duck, swims like a duck, and looks like a duck, then it probably is a duck.

This is a big part of the reason we have judges, and why we should not replace them with LLMs.

Also the reason laws aren't overly specific, so these judges can make those judgement calls in the cases. Following the spirit of the law rather than the letter of the law is something many judges care about as well.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#302
post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with this. Pretty shocking to see all the replies you got though. Over the last 10-20 years there seems to be a drastic increase of people who think government control is a good idea.

It could have something to do with the really bad evil and stupid ideas that people like Peter Thiel propagate with the immense wealth they've accumulated. If the Venn diagram of billionaire nerds and fascists were less of a circle you might have a point.

You do realize we are talking about Spain here. A place which is a case study in the staggering amount of damage too much government control can have. Both left and right wing governments over many decades have contributed to these problems. The thing in Spanish politics that the right and left have in common is a strong tendency towards authoritarianism.

PS If we are going to talk about Spain, calling Americans fascists doesn't really work. They have actual Fascists there and their government policies are far (far far far far far far far) closer to the blue team. Anyone with even a passing familiarity with Spanish politics would know that.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#303

Yet blocks the internet completely decimating all necessary services for a couple hours for La Liga futbol. Spain is a backwards country

> blocks the internet completely decimating all necessary services

Not really how it works in practice here, some Cloudflare IPs are unavailable for a few hours, everything mostly keeps working as it always is.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Relatedly, is it OK with you if somebody bets a few million dollars on your early demise?

People short stocks for billions of dollars every day the time.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are stunningly more optimistic than I.

I thought I was being cynical. Classifying these services as gambling means they become a source of tax revenue for nation states.

> Classifying these services as gambling means they become a source of tax revenue for nation states

I mean Spain blocked these markets for now, to investigate how to deal with them, I don't think it's for sure they'll be classified as gambling and allowed, might very well be outlawed. Probably parent got confused you said "The whole world will eventually do the same" (about blocking/banning) but then seemingly you thought these were "classified as gambling" already.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#306
post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

>We are adults, and we should be able to gamble on whatever the hell we want - even if you don't like it. No. That's not how society works. Prediction markets have externalities that affect all of us. If you want to gamble, you should be allow to do it in a small setting, on games that have no effect on the greater society.

Again, you are imposing your world view onto others. You should be able to do it however the hell you want. I don’t like gambling, and I don’t like many other things, but that is why we are all different and have agency. Accountability is a different argument, but gambling? Please.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#307
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very close already. Death threats went to this journalist; seems someone bet on missile hits. https://factkeepers.com/polymarket-gamblers-vow-to-kill-jour... It also incentivizes leaks from insiders, sometimes endangering others. A soldier was charged for betting on a military operation. https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-soldier-charged-using-clas... And of course throwing pro sports, but that's been happening for ag…

Throwing in pro sports is at least harmless for people who don't care about pro sports.

Enough people do care about pro sports that someone who doesn't still needs to worry about being caught in a riot should something like this happen. (they already worry about riots for real wins/losses)

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#308
post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>We are adults, and we should be able to gamble on whatever the hell we want - even if you don't like it. No. That's not how society works. Prediction markets have externalities that affect all of us. If you want to gamble, you should be allow to do it in a small setting, on games that have no effect on the greater society.

Again, you are imposing your world view onto others. You should be able to do it however the hell you want. I don’t like gambling, and I don’t like many other things, but that is why we are all different and have agency. Accountability is a different argument, but gambling? Please.

I'm sure you've be entirely fine with me and a few friends placing wagers whether or not your house burns down next month. Nothing illegal of course, just hundreds of thousands of dollars wagered on whether or not your specific house burns to the ground for any reason.

Unregulated gambling has very obvious externalities. Don't insult our intelligence by suggesting it doesn't.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The technical term is that you must have an “insurable interest” in what you insure. Both of your examples are people protecting their insurable interest. Ownership is the most common insurable interest, but there are many other ways to have one. This is done because the insurance company wants you to prefer that the covered event doesn’t happen, which avoids some conflicts of interest. These prediction market events…

Even if you have an insurable interest, moral hazard may arise - acting recklessly or other abuse, while knowing you are insured/covered. Somewhat similar to friendly fraud in retail/ecommerce.

Insurance normally has fine print about those things. Life insurance doesn't pay out for suicide. Fire insurance doesn't pay out if you intentionally burn your house down (the fire department also will investigate because even though it is their job they don't like risking their life fighting fires)

You can get insurance without the above provisions, but it will cost a lot more. Once in a while someone manages to collect on a claim for loss of their expensive cigars after they smoke them - but this is rare and usually not worth the cost.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting, added my ISP to my previous comment (Vodafone). Do you have a lot of stuff you use daily that goes away during the games? Personally the only thing that seems to stop working is Docker Hub, everything else seems OK, trying to figure out if it's just my ISP that is lenient or what's going on...

It changes depending on the day. But yes, some days it's really a lot (affecting forums, news sites, etc.). I think Movistar applies stronger blocks than most for some reason, in fact I've been seriously consider changing ISP for that reason but I'm too lazy (plus in 12 years with them I think I've had a single outage which was solved in an hour or two, so even if I oppose them morally, it's convenient to stay...)

> I think Movistar applies stronger blocks than most for some reason

They've got a license to stream LaLiga on Movistar Plus so they're particularly interested in blocking piracy.

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