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Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

reuters.com

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Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#91

Post by imglorp »

solenoid0937 wrote: post #7

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

Very close already. Death threats went to this journalist; seems someone bet on missile hits. https://factkeepers.com/polymarket-gamblers-vow-to-kill-jour...

It also incentivizes leaks from insiders, sometimes endangering others. A soldier was charged for betting on a military operation. https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-soldier-charged-using-clas...

And of course throwing pro sports, but that's been happening for ages. Sports has always been crooked: eg the Eupolus Scandal from 388 BCE.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#92

Post by Fnoord »

cucumber3732842 wrote: post #51

[flagged]

You need a license to operate in Spain. The license is fairly available (EU regulations enforce this). So, Polymarket is able to obtain a license if they wish to operate in Spain, if they follow the fair rules to obtain a license. Don't want to obtain a license? Don't want to follow the rules in Spain? No problem, but no business in Spain. Websites blocking works like that, too. Which makes sense: local law > remote law. Else I could host some websites selling LSD to Americans on the clearnet. No US government would accept that, zero chance.

Other countries such as USA work in a similar manner. Work permits such as green card, to name an example.

The people who complain about regulations and law either don't understand why they exist or how they work, or they have an interest in the abolishment of it because they benefit from that.

Then you get that BS about how USA is better off than EU. Well, if you're healthy, educated, and employed, sure. Otherwise? You can just use your eyes. Go drive through a rich and poor neighborhood in both. The poverty in USA is horrendous, and the effects are shown. We got poverty too, but not as severe. No need to go to that area between West and East coast. You can experience this right near the Bay Area. San Jose is supposedly a mess. I'd love to compare my visit to a Fry's in San Jose 2005 with today's.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#93

Post by typon »

jespinel wrote: post #16

[flagged]

Next time there is a fire at your house I will say "he's an adult who should have been careful playing with dangerous things like fire, we shouldnt waste society's money and resources on saving his house"

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#94

Post by sandworm101 »

compiler-guy wrote: post #57
chollida1 wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

being pedantic here but > You aren't allowed to set up a life insurance policy on someone else's life, or a fire insurance policy on someone else's home This isn't really true. Lots of people take out life insurance on others as a hedge for many reasons, small business partner is one. Same fire insurance, we had a case where someone pledged a building as collateral and we took out separate fire insurance on the build…

The technical term is that you must have an “insurable interest” in what you insure. Both of your examples are people protecting their insurable interest. Ownership is the most common insurable interest, but there are many other ways to have one. This is done because the insurance company wants you to prefer that the covered event doesn’t happen, which avoids some conflicts of interest. These prediction market events…

Unless you short the property. Essentially, sell it now on the bet that it will drop in value later. Then it burns down and you repurchase the vacant lot and return the property to the original owner.

Evil, but most everything in real estate is evil.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#95

Post by mithras »

imglorp wrote: post #91
solenoid0937 wrote: post #7

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

Very close already. Death threats went to this journalist; seems someone bet on missile hits. https://factkeepers.com/polymarket-gamblers-vow-to-kill-jour... It also incentivizes leaks from insiders, sometimes endangering others. A soldier was charged for betting on a military operation. https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-soldier-charged-using-clas... And of course throwing pro sports, but that's been happening for ag…

I thought this one was the most interesting:

‘Hairdryer or lighter?’: French police look at claim of sensor tampering to win weather bets

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/23/hairdryer-or-l...

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#96

Post by [deleted] »

izzydata wrote: post #75
seydor wrote: post #45

please stop calling them prediction markets. It's not even accurate, you do not buy a prediciton

Can you further explain the semantics you are talking about here? Are people not trying to predict things? Thus it being a market for people making predictions?

[deleted]

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#97

Post by gventura18 »

sorokod wrote: post #50
delichon wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Disagree, I find their product valuable and use them daily as a source of unusually high quality predictions. When used for this purpose insider trading is a feature that improves the quality of predictions. I see some fraud as in any market, but the overwhelming majority of transactions are voluntary, open and relatively informed within a highly transparent system. I think that self fulfilling prophecy attempts by d…

A thought experiment: how would you feel about betting on a market that is an the outcome of a medical procedure? On a negative outcome? On a market for a negative outcome of your own procedure?

Is it bad to take out a life insurance policy right before you have a medical procedure?

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#98

Post by bigyabai »

PowerElectronix wrote: post #83
throwawa1 wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its just a dark mirror episode. I can't imagine waking up and thinking "boy I'll really make some money if we kill Ayatollah Khomeini today"

The other side of that argument could be something like: "Dude, Khomeini better not be killed, it'd suck for me, an average iranian dude. I'd probably bet he dies so I can hedge my personal financial wellbeing for that case"

Which is also hardly imaginable.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#99

Post by seydor »

izzydata wrote: post #75
seydor wrote: post #45

please stop calling them prediction markets. It's not even accurate, you do not buy a prediciton

Can you further explain the semantics you are talking about here? Are people not trying to predict things? Thus it being a market for people making predictions?

polymarket is selling bets, not predictions and other people are buying them. they are not being sold by people.

It's like calling the casino a probability market.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#100

Post by seydor »

PowerElectronix wrote: post #84
seydor wrote: post #45

please stop calling them prediction markets. It's not even accurate, you do not buy a prediciton

Could they be called that if they sold fortune cookies?

fortune cookie vendor would be more accurate
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