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Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

reuters.com

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Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#181

Post by mschuster91 »

mithras wrote: post #95
imglorp wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very close already. Death threats went to this journalist; seems someone bet on missile hits. https://factkeepers.com/polymarket-gamblers-vow-to-kill-jour... It also incentivizes leaks from insiders, sometimes endangering others. A soldier was charged for betting on a military operation. https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-soldier-charged-using-clas... And of course throwing pro sports, but that's been happening for ag…

I thought this one was the most interesting: ‘Hairdryer or lighter?’: French police look at claim of sensor tampering to win weather bets https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/23/hairdryer-or-l...

Whoever did that deserves a few years in prison. Normally I'm not too much of a friend of draconian BS - but accurate reports of temperature, air pressure and wind speed are incredibly important for the safety of air travel.

It's bad enough when such systems fail due to whatever sort of issue, but the last thing aviation needs is people intentionally blowing holes into the swiss cheese security model -.-

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#182

Post by zeroonetwothree »

ambicapter wrote: post #149
PowerElectronix wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not fools, these bets are usually very close to a fair market price. But people are not willing to wager millions of dollars on the temperature registered in a certain place at a certain time. Or on if hezbollah missiles impact Israel land or whatever.

What fair market price are you talking about? The price decided by the prediction market?

If you compare prediction market implied odds to the actual odds that ended up they match very closely

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#183

Post by Fnoord »

cucumber3732842 wrote: post #159
Fnoord wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You need a license to operate in Spain. The license is fairly available (EU regulations enforce this). So, Polymarket is able to obtain a license if they wish to operate in Spain, if they follow the fair rules to obtain a license. Don't want to obtain a license? Don't want to follow the rules in Spain? No problem, but no business in Spain. Websites blocking works like that, too. Which makes sense: local law > remote…

You can replace Spain in the article with any other jurisdiction and my comment would be unchanged. This has nothing to do with US vs EU or any other trope you seek to my comment as being on a particular side of of a particular issue in order to get people of a certain bent to support whatever your side is (isn't team politics great). Ask yourself this. If the license Spain is trying to enforce here had the exact sam…

And you can replace Spain with any other country (including authoritarian regimes) and my comment would be unchanged. It is a matter of respecting local jurisdiction, local law.

I didn't expect you to agree either. I wanted to inform the reader and lurker, not convince you. Why you have to resort to 'you are exactly the kind of person' is beyond me.

Since you decided to edit your post, so have I:

Yes, a government can outsource/delegate such, if the quality is good, why not? For example, the audit has to be thorough and the outcome non-discriminatory.

As far as I am concerned it is a very sick platform because (well anything related to cryptocurrency is) some of the bets are about dark things, seemingly allowed. For example, imagine being able to bet when the next murder of the Zodiac is happening, and how it'd occur. Same with the missile example. Should we therefore ban or regulate it? I don't know what is wisdom. But I do know EU and Spain can decide on this for themselves. One thing of note: insider trading is illegal in EU, yet Trump's clan hobby (yes, in past presidency it occurred as well, but not as severe, nor as ridiculous).

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#184

Post by bena »

jespinel wrote: post #173
typon wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Next time there is a fire at your house I will say "he's an adult who should have been careful playing with dangerous things like fire, we shouldnt waste society's money and resources on saving his house"

Sure! I can also be an adult, have fire detectors and insure my property against fires instead of hoping for the goodwill of the community or the government.

Fire insurance doesn't do anything for your house regarding it being on fire.

Fire departments are good for the community at large as well so the fire at your house doesn't become the fire at my house.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#185

Post by RIMR »

satvikpendem wrote: post #164
InsideOutSanta wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The service is the house, and they take fees on bets, so they are the only ones guaranteed to win.

By that logic market makers in the stock market are basically like a casino too. No one is of course guaranteed to win in anything but at least the stock market doesn't ban you for making too much money like a casino does.

I mean, yeah, pretty much.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#186

Post by kube-system »

jespinel wrote: post #172
kube-system wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That works in a world where everyone has equal knowledge and ability all of the time. Unfortunately, when that is not the case, sometimes humans have been known to take advantage of others. Due to this, every society on earth has created rules against various types of these situations.

> That works in a world where everyone has equal knowledge and ability all of the time. That ^ is mostly true today. If you have access to Polymarket or Kalshi, you have internet access. If you have internet access, you have access to more public knowledge than any previous generation. Whether you use the internet to educate yourself or to gamble should be your choice. But starting today, it is no longer your choice…

In 1997 that's the effect we thought the internet was going to have -- soon everyone would be smart and nobody would get scammed!

That didn't happen. The internet didn't solve disability, it didn't solve education, it didn't solve misinformation, didn't stop scams. In fact, it has made some of these things worse.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#187

Post by sometimelurker »

solenoid0937 wrote: post #7

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

> illegal globally

I would replace them with https://manifold.markets/ or maybe heavily regulate them. they do have practical utility in forecasting

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#188

Post by satvikpendem »

RIMR wrote: post #185
satvikpendem wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By that logic market makers in the stock market are basically like a casino too. No one is of course guaranteed to win in anything but at least the stock market doesn't ban you for making too much money like a casino does.

I mean, yeah, pretty much.

I can actually consistently make money in the stock market, not so in a casino.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#190

Post by lxgr »

super256 wrote: post #90
solenoid0937 wrote: post #7

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

Maybe we should ban the stock market too. In 2017 someone tried to bomb the bus of the BVB soccer club, after he bought puts options on the BVB stock. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borussia_Dortmund_team_bus_bom...

Or maybe we should somewhat regulate the stock market, require identification of traders, have a regulatory body that can retroactively investigate suspicious trade patterns and determine the identity of who's behind them?
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