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Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

reuters.com

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Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#81

Post by PowerElectronix »

AtNightWeCode wrote: post #64
solenoid0937 wrote: post #7

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

Historically similar services have also been used to try to manipulate the real world by using bets for creating opinions. Like if you get to vote between candidate x and y and x leads by 75% to 25% on Polymarket maybe you don't vote for y even if the real numbers may be way closer.

That opens up very fast to a very expensive arbitrage (on the manipulating party)

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#82

Post by AtNightWeCode »

WarmWash wrote: post #53
solenoid0937 wrote: post #7

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

> as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world I would argue that the ratio between "power" and "money to be won" is too big (at least right now) for this to materially matter. No fortune 500 CEO is going to postpone a product launch so they can win $5,000 on polymarket. But some random guy will get his hair dryer to win a socially meaningless weather bet. It's not discussed often, but the liqui…

The CEO of Coinbase finished an earnings call by reading all the buzzwords you could bet on to be mention during the call. So a CEO can manipulate these things and who knows if it was just a marketing thing or if he shared his plans.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#83

Post by PowerElectronix »

throwawa1 wrote: post #77
croes wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

something is deeply wrong with some humans

Its just a dark mirror episode. I can't imagine waking up and thinking "boy I'll really make some money if we kill Ayatollah Khomeini today"

The other side of that argument could be something like: "Dude, Khomeini better not be killed, it'd suck for me, an average iranian dude. I'd probably bet he dies so I can hedge my personal financial wellbeing for that case"

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#86

Post by contubernio »

petcat wrote: post #23
nyc_data_geek1 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Equities are underlying collateral. Prediction markets are literally just betting on an outcome, no underlying asset exists.

What collateral is underlying the massive, state-sponsored, Spanish lottery ticket and scratch off racket?

A casino is by definition a house that takes rake and is not the government or one of its subsidiaries ...

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#87

Post by bobthepanda »

PowerElectronix wrote: post #80
ambicapter wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's not discussed often, but the liquidity of these markets is often awful, and you can only win as much as people are willing to take the other side. Which is harder when people know it's easy for insiders (or the outcome decider themselves) to play the other side. You're basically arguing that there aren't enough fools to go around, when we're talking about gambling enterprises.

Not fools, these bets are usually very close to a fair market price. But people are not willing to wager millions of dollars on the temperature registered in a certain place at a certain time. Or on if hezbollah missiles impact Israel land or whatever.

The latter kind of prediction has become less desirable to bet on ever since the shenanigans around whether or not Maduro's kidnapping counted as an invasion of Venezuela.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#88

Post by jmyeet »

solenoid0937 wrote: post #7

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

I would go further than this: all forms of online gambling should be banned, globally. It's probably sufficient to remove them from app stores and to remove their access to the international financial system, which is very doable.

The astute observer might say "ah but what about crypto gambling sites like Stake?". This problem isn't as intractable as crypto bros might have you believe. You simply issue arrest warrants for people who allow your citizens to gamble in violation of your local laws and you threaten any bank, brokerage or financial institution that allows them to convert their crypto in fiat currency. This is fairly easily covered by KYC/AML regimes alreaqdy. It won't be perfect. It doesn't have to be. As soon as someone can't be an open billionaire by selling crypto gambling without fear of being extradited to the US if they travel internationally, the shine disappears real quick.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#89

Post by AtNightWeCode »

PowerElectronix wrote: post #81
AtNightWeCode wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Historically similar services have also been used to try to manipulate the real world by using bets for creating opinions. Like if you get to vote between candidate x and y and x leads by 75% to 25% on Polymarket maybe you don't vote for y even if the real numbers may be way closer.

That opens up very fast to a very expensive arbitrage (on the manipulating party)

It is marketing money so it is not even for arbitrage. And you don't need to provide all the liquidity. Just enough to tilt the result.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#90

Post by super256 »

solenoid0937 wrote: post #7

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

Maybe we should ban the stock market too.

In 2017 someone tried to bomb the bus of the BVB soccer club, after he bought puts options on the BVB stock.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borussia_Dortmund_team_bus_bom...

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