Live data from Hacker News

AI is too expensive

wheresyoured.at

121–130 of 165 posts

Re: AI is too expensive

#121
A boy is trapped in a cave that is filled with treasure. But it is dark. He can't see to find his way out. And even if he could see, can he get out?

He finds a lamp. Is it really real? He rubs it with his hand and it begins to glow!

The cave is fulled with light that shines and sparkles off all the untold treasure filling the caverns. In the center, towering above the boy is a Djinn.

"I am the Djinn of the Lamp." It says. Command me and I will give you whatever you wish."

The boy says, "I wish for gold! Give me gold!"

"What do you want gold for?" the Djinn asks.

"To buy nice things. Great things!" the boy says.

"Ask for the things!" The Djinn says, "And I will create them for you."

"But if you give me nice things, then someone will take them from me! I need gold to pay for an army to protect me and my nice things."

The Djinn laughs and says, "I will make you an army that worships you! They will be the greatest army ever. And they will never betray you."

"Then I will need gold to feed the army and to buy land to keep my nice things."

"These too I can make for you, master." The Djinn says. "You have but to ask."

The boy thinks about this. Then a sly smile crosses his face.

"Can you give me your power? So that I can make these things for myself?"

"Yes." says the Djinn,"But my power is tied to the Lamp. You must become one with the Lamp. Knowing all, seeing all. You will want for nothing because you will need nothing. The Lamp is perfection. You will live in a state of grace within it."

"Let it be so." The boy said.

The Djinn nodded and his light shone and filled the cave, the world, the sky. The boy grew until he was as big as the Djinn was. Was, because the Djinn shrank down and became an old man.

A look of perfect bliss appeared on the Boy's giant face. He was all powerful, all knowing. He retreated into the Lamp and assumed his position as its keeper.

The old man, who had been the Djinn sighed. He was tired. His back hurt. His clothing was worn and patched.

"I need a nap." The old man said. He lay down and went to sleep.

He woke many hours later and stretched. He felt much better. Like the weight of the world had been lifted from his shoulders.

The old man looked around. There on the floor was the lamp. He bent down, groaning, and picked it up. He rubbed it three times and the cavern filled with light.

The boy, now a giant appeared. He looked down and saw the old man.

"I am the Djinn of the Lamp. What do you want with me. I'm busy running the Universe."

"I need some new cloths and a new hat. Nothing fancy."

"Yes, yes." The Djinn said. He waved his hands and the old man's cloths changed. Nothing fancy, but very nice.

"There, your wish is granted. Now I must be off. My world awaits."

"Before you leave," the old man said. "I would like some breakfast. And a few gold coins. Jut a few, so I won't have to bother you so much."

The Djinn waved his hands and a table with food appeared. Beside the filled plate was a small purse.

"I must go now." The Djinn said. "Anything else?"

The old man started to eat. Between bites he said, "No ... Oh wait. Yes. Please unlock the back door to the cave."

The Djinn waved his hands, but paused. "Do you need a light? The cave will be dark when I am gone."

"No, that's okay." The old man smiled. He held up the Lamp. "I have a light."

Re: AI is too expensive

#122
post #11

It’s a similar bet as Uber. They also started out with numbers that make no sense - overpaying drivers and undercharging users The math may look questionable but there are also senior people talking of automating all white color work in the next couple years. Even if that estimate is miles off on both time and % it’s still trillions. So crazy as the numbers seem it could still work out

Cars and gas and human labor do not get cheaper over time the way that computer hardware does.

One more argument to support the view that the numbers could work here crazy as they seem

Re: AI is too expensive

#123
post #11

It’s a similar bet as Uber. They also started out with numbers that make no sense - overpaying drivers and undercharging users The math may look questionable but there are also senior people talking of automating all white color work in the next couple years. Even if that estimate is miles off on both time and % it’s still trillions. So crazy as the numbers seem it could still work out

Automating white color work in the next couple years will cause the greatest demand destruction humans have ever seen.

Maybe. I think it'll just result in vulnerable getting squeezed harder.

Very dystopian but I'm not convinced it's a showstopper in the "this rules out such a future" sense

Re: AI is too expensive

#124

The thing that everyone seems to be missing is that the US AI companies are focused on the frontier models, that are very expensive for diminishing returns. If suddenly the money craze stops, meaning (1) AI companies investors want them to become profitable and (2) clients start being cost-sensitive to AI bills (which they are absolutely not currently), then everyone will switch to smaller, cheaper models that are en…

This is absolutely what I think will happen eventually, and I think that becomes a huge problem for Open AI and Anthropic because I don’t think that allows investors to make back their money.

Re: AI is too expensive

#125

The thing that everyone seems to be missing is that the US AI companies are focused on the frontier models, that are very expensive for diminishing returns. If suddenly the money craze stops, meaning (1) AI companies investors want them to become profitable and (2) clients start being cost-sensitive to AI bills (which they are absolutely not currently), then everyone will switch to smaller, cheaper models that are en…

I think it will in general go more into the direction of using the technology a bit smarter. This will include smaller models but certainly also just less usage overall. Currently a lot of people seem to just burn through tokens without thinking much about what they actually get in return or if an LLM really is actually overall the best tool for the job.

Re: AI is too expensive

#126

This guy is the master of goalposts. He never cops to the fact that he is constantly being proven wrong and changing his tune every few months to a new theme which he will abandon as soon as it’s not supported. I’d like to think that if I was as catastrophically, publicly, consistently incorrect on the main thing I do, I’d have a little more humility than this charlatan.

I like how he mentions that "AI revenue would need to EXPLODE", seemingly oblivious to the fact that it has been exploding for months

OpenAI is missing their own revenue targets. There are worrying signs that growth is starting to plateau or diversify across players in a way where not everyone will be able to eat.

Re: AI is too expensive

#127
post #96
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not really a character attack so much as a poor track record attack.

It's the same idea. The crux of the argument is that the author has a history of bad predictions, so this must also be a bad prediction, or it's at least likely enough to be bad that we done need to invest further analysis into it. I don't think that's necessarily a bad argument style (at this point it's by far the easiest way to argue that a Musk project won't work for example), but you have to be careful with it. I…

You're absolutely correct. Too easy just to say this guy sucks that's why he's wrong.

Re: AI is too expensive

#128
Uber was too expensive once, too, and yet they seem to be currently functioning as a profitable public company.

“AI is too expensive right now” is an accurate title. Plenty of things could change in the future to change that. Off the top of my head:

* end user pricing

* breakthroughs in model efficiency

* better chips to run models

Any one of these things is easily possible in the next three years. Probably sooner.

Re: AI is too expensive

#129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I said this in the last Ed Zitron article too, but it's more than just having an axe or grind or acting in bad faith (though those are both true as well). He's a completely standard example of audience capture: there's huge demand right now for "AI is a scam" takes, fulfilling that demand is how he makes his living, and he can't abandon it without losing his audience no matter what the facts on the ground do. All he…

I don't understand his audience still being in denial about what is coming. There may not be a job apocalypse but there is a decent chance tough times are ahead. Eventually, his audience may turn into outright Luddites. If that happens I sort of hope they don't stop at data centers/AI and go for the whole project of the Internet.

The audience feels threatened. Reading anti-AI hot takes is comforting when you’re afraid it’s going to take your job.

There is a lot of hype right now about AGI destroying the economy, replacing workers, or even ending the world. Companies are embellishing as they run up to IPO. But there’s a lot of unhealthy counter-beliefs trying to take it the opposite extreme. Keeping up with AI news is about avoiding the hype monsters at either end of the spectrum.

Re: AI is too expensive

#130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The truth is indeed between the extremes, but it requires a lot of technical nuance which neither Ed nor his audience want.

He seems to primarily discuss the economics of the industry.

About which his opinions are continuously being proven wrong.
Post reply on HN