11–20 of 165 posts
The math may look questionable but there are also senior people talking of automating all white color work in the next couple years. Even if that estimate is miles off on both time and % it’s still trillions. So crazy as the numbers seem it could still work out
The bright side is: this is a golden era of subsidized tokens. It will not always be like this, so now is the time to churn out your passion projects.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Chinese 1T+ models are being offered at a fraction of GPT/Claude cost, and the margin is healthy enough for dozens of providers to compete, so I find it highly likely that ClosedAI and Misanthropic sell tokens at massive markup. they just still bleed billions on their free tier and san francisco salaries.
Why we should assume that whoever offers these Chinese models makes sufficient profits and will not rise the prices eventually too?
Google has had decades to accumulate intellectual and physical capital. Catching up quickly means spending >500 billion. If you can actually dethrone Google (admittedly not an easy task) then it will have been worth it. If not, I suppose it's wasted investment.
Now what happens when three or four startups vie for this opportunity at once? Well that's how you get $2 trillion in captial investments per year.
The counter argument (not mine): Software Engineers are willing to spend their own money on AI. The same people that wouldn't pay 10 dollars for code if there was a workaround that took hours.
If you're older than 30, you've seen this play out before… This is just how the VC game works. Cross-town Uber rides don't stay $5 forever. The bright side is: this is a golden era of subsidized tokens. It will not always be like this, so now is the time to churn out your passion projects.
The counter argument (not mine): Software Engineers are willing to spend their own money on AI. The same people that wouldn't pay 10 dollars for code if there was a workaround that took hours.