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AI is too expensive

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Re: AI is too expensive

#81

Post by bauldursdev »

eieiewq wrote: post #54
bensyverson wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would love to see the data to support the idea that Uber had solid unit economics during their expansion.

State your priors so I can determine whether you are qualified to have this discussion.

"I know these facts, they just go to a different school. I'd bring you to them if your Mom would let you leave the neighborhood, but you're just a little boy".

I mean surely to make this claim, you aren't just making it up, surely you've done the research. In that case, what's so hard about sharing facts which you already know? I'm not asking you to put in a bunch of effort pulling financial statements and analyzing everything, I assume you've already done that because I doubt you'd make the claim otherwise.

Re: AI is too expensive

#82

Post by minimaxir »

bauldursdev wrote: post #78
czhu12 wrote: post #36

I really respected Ed Zitron, but I feel like he's very much lost the plot on AI. Scroll back not too far and he was publishing criticisms that no one wants to spend actual money AI. Anthropic has shattered all notions of that since then. Then there was the idea that even if people want it, we have way too much GPU capacity to ever be saturated. Now almost all providers are hitting limits. Now, its the next iteration…

I'm not really an AI-futurist or anything, I think the truth is between the extremes, but it seems like a lot of people who are ideologically against AI just move the goal posts whenever a new development is made. They also seem to operate under the assumption that whatever the current state of the technology is is as good as it will ever be. "it can't even do x today, so it'll never be good".

The truth is indeed between the extremes, but it requires a lot of technical nuance which neither Ed nor his audience want.

Re: AI is too expensive

#83

Post by GolfPopper »

nstart wrote: post #67
overgard wrote: post #12

More people need to read Ed, especially tech journalists. I feel like he's one of the rare few people that are actually speaking about the industry honestly.

I've been subscribed to ed for a long time. I commend his foundational ideas like what he laid out in "The Era of the Business Idiot" or "The Rot Economy". My recommendation line for him to anyone else is "if nothing else, he'll leave you with something to chew on for a while to come". My issue with Ed is that he doesn't have the ability to draw the line. In the pursuit of making a point he goes so dogmatic that he i…

>"Probably the weirdest thing about this entire era is how nobody wants to talk about the fact that AI isn’t actually doing very much, and that AI agents are just chatbots plugged into an API." That's a massive stretch to make.

With the notable exception of TTI models, that description seems accurate to me. Is there any widely promoted "AI product" that is more than a chatbot in fancy dress?

Re: AI is too expensive

#84

Post by toasty228 »

WarmWash wrote: post #71
Aurornis wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uber is a good comparison because everyone was predicting the demise of ride sharing as soon as they tried to become profitable. The subsidies went away gradually and the prices leveled out in a spot where the services are heavily used. Uber became profitable. Ride sharing is affordable. I think our $20/month plans might become a little less generous and the $200/month plan won’t always allow non-stop vibe coding, bu…

AI will likely cost $60-$80 per user per month. Akin to an average cellphone bill. The infrastructure costs are comparable and the ROI would be 5-10 years for the current insane build out. Yes, chinese and local models exist. But so do $20 cell phone plans. People go with what is convenient, works, and is readily available.

> $60-$80 > Akin to an average cellphone bill.

Where? You get unlimited mobile plans for like 10-20 euros in Europe

Re: AI is too expensive

#85

Post by operatingthetan »

czhu12 wrote: post #36

I really respected Ed Zitron, but I feel like he's very much lost the plot on AI. Scroll back not too far and he was publishing criticisms that no one wants to spend actual money AI. Anthropic has shattered all notions of that since then. Then there was the idea that even if people want it, we have way too much GPU capacity to ever be saturated. Now almost all providers are hitting limits. Now, its the next iteration…

Why did you criticize his past arguments instead of the claims in this article? The one relevant claim you address is basically a shrug on your part. This seems to be purely a character attack of Zitron.

I agree that he is very one-sided, but I doubt his hit-rate is much worse than other pundits in the industry.

Re: AI is too expensive

#86

Post by Analemma_ »

ant_li0n wrote: post #55
czhu12 wrote: post #36

I really respected Ed Zitron, but I feel like he's very much lost the plot on AI. Scroll back not too far and he was publishing criticisms that no one wants to spend actual money AI. Anthropic has shattered all notions of that since then. Then there was the idea that even if people want it, we have way too much GPU capacity to ever be saturated. Now almost all providers are hitting limits. Now, its the next iteration…

I agree. He plainly has an axe to grind. I'm as AI-skeptical as the next guy, but I can't handle Ed Zitron. Doesn't seem like a good faith actor.

I said this in the last Ed Zitron article too, but it's more than just having an axe or grind or acting in bad faith (though those are both true as well). He's a completely standard example of audience capture: there's huge demand right now for "AI is a scam" takes, fulfilling that demand is how he makes his living, and he can't abandon it without losing his audience no matter what the facts on the ground do. All he can do is pivot explanations whenever the old ones get empirically falsified.

Re: AI is too expensive

#87

Post by operatingthetan »

minimaxir wrote: post #82
bauldursdev wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not really an AI-futurist or anything, I think the truth is between the extremes, but it seems like a lot of people who are ideologically against AI just move the goal posts whenever a new development is made. They also seem to operate under the assumption that whatever the current state of the technology is is as good as it will ever be. "it can't even do x today, so it'll never be good".

The truth is indeed between the extremes, but it requires a lot of technical nuance which neither Ed nor his audience want.

He seems to primarily discuss the economics of the industry.

Re: AI is too expensive

#88

Post by autoexec »

If you think it's expensive now, imagine what they'll do if they get their way and people become dependent on it. Once they've got businesses and consumers over a barrel the gloves will come off and they'll skip the lube. The good news is that we can decide we don't actually need it. Maybe it'll take a generation or two to recover the skills and mental abilities we lost by outsourcing everything to the bots but accepting shitty results in exchange for getting them faster and easier is a choice, and it's up to us to decide when it isn't worth it anymore.

Right now, a lot of the costs (especially the environmental ones) are mostly hidden from and removed enough from users that "fast and easy" is still very tempting. People are still learning for themselves what the limitations are and how different what AI delivers is from what they were promised. There's plenty of time for people make a lot of money and cause a lot of harm before the bubble bursts, companies realize AGI isn't going to happen, and the true costs get properly factored in.

Re: AI is too expensive

#89

Post by tim333 »

The AI related companies seem to be doing ok. Google profits $132bn Microsoft $102bn. Anthropic losing about $10bn but on revenue of $30bn up from $14bn a year or so ago. I don't think it's all going bust too quickly.

Re: AI is too expensive

#90

Post by tim333 »

operatingthetan wrote: post #85
czhu12 wrote: post #36

I really respected Ed Zitron, but I feel like he's very much lost the plot on AI. Scroll back not too far and he was publishing criticisms that no one wants to spend actual money AI. Anthropic has shattered all notions of that since then. Then there was the idea that even if people want it, we have way too much GPU capacity to ever be saturated. Now almost all providers are hitting limits. Now, its the next iteration…

Why did you criticize his past arguments instead of the claims in this article? The one relevant claim you address is basically a shrug on your part. This seems to be purely a character attack of Zitron. I agree that he is very one-sided, but I doubt his hit-rate is much worse than other pundits in the industry.

It's not really a character attack so much as a poor track record attack.
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