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Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

ishormuzopenyet.com

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Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#131

Post by verdverm »

FrustratedMonky wrote: post #86
tomtomtom777 wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, it would be if everyone betting wouldn't have an influence on the outcome. That's "wisdom of the crowds". But what if the people putting money on the Strait being closed are the same that close them? Surely, that's no longer the wisdom of the crowds at play. Just perverse incentives.

I agree. Maybe an un-expected outcome. Who could have foreseen that a government/person would actually blatantly start a war, and manipulate bombing raids in order to manipulate a market, without being charged with a crime himself. In sports betting, it seems obvious if a player throws a game. In a war? Surely nobody would do this, right? Who could imagine it.

> In sports betting, it seems obvious if a player throws a game.

On the other hand, since you can bet on individual pitches, you no longer have to throw the game, just the right pitch at the right time. A couple of players were caught, but who knows how widespread this really is...

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/46917665/mlb-betting-gua...

https://www.justice.gov/usao-edny/pr/two-current-major-leagu...

The focus on making money above all else, as a cultural dynamic, is degrading the human experience. It increasingly seeps into more aspects of our lives and is part of the broader Trustpocalypse.

Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#132

Post by Invictus0 »

tomtomtom777 wrote: post #123
nodesocket wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shaping the future for “good” is not investing. That is ESG and if you value capital and capital appreciation ESG has been proven not to be a solid strategy. See also altruistic capitalism with such moral people as Sam Bankman-Fried, Elizabeth Holmes, Trevor Milton and Adam Neumann. Solid list of moral people shaping the future.

Wow. I am not sure how to respond to this as you seem to have a completely different mindset. You mean to say it is "proven" not to be a solid strategy as in not maximizing profit? Surely, you acknowledge that funding something is a rather direct way of actively supporting it. It is your money and your choice of what you choose to invest it in, and thus how you choose to shape the future. If you buy OIL to make money…

The ticker is USO, not OIL, and it's abundantly clear that you have no idea how it works.

Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#133

Post by verdverm »

letcree wrote: post #98
anonfunction wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Funnily enough, I did find a few satellite sources at the beginning for the map background and noticed that all the ships seemed to be scrubbed from the image. It's an interesting idea, thanks for the comment! The sources I used were: - ESRI World Imagery[1] — free satellite tiles, high-res, but ships are stripped out from the imagery - NASA GIBS - VIIRS[2] — near real-time daily satellite imagery from NASA, but reso…

Ai2 has vessel detection models for Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 (ESA) along with Landsat 8, Landsat 9, and VIIRS Nighttime Lights (NASA/USGS/NOAA): - Sentinel-2 (10 m/pixel): https://github.com/allenai/rslearn_projects/blob/master/docs... - Landsat (15-30 m/pixel): https://github.com/allenai/rslearn_projects/blob/master/docs... - VIIRS Nighttime Lights: https://github.com/allenai/vessel-detection-viirs I think you can…

There is also a lot of jamming, manipulating, and fake AIS broadcasting going on

https://windward.ai/blog/gps-jamming-disrupts-1100-ships-in-...

Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#134

Post by nodesocket »

tomtomtom777 wrote: post #123
nodesocket wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shaping the future for “good” is not investing. That is ESG and if you value capital and capital appreciation ESG has been proven not to be a solid strategy. See also altruistic capitalism with such moral people as Sam Bankman-Fried, Elizabeth Holmes, Trevor Milton and Adam Neumann. Solid list of moral people shaping the future.

Wow. I am not sure how to respond to this as you seem to have a completely different mindset. You mean to say it is "proven" not to be a solid strategy as in not maximizing profit? Surely, you acknowledge that funding something is a rather direct way of actively supporting it. It is your money and your choice of what you choose to invest it in, and thus how you choose to shape the future. If you buy OIL to make money…

> It is your money and your choice of what you choose to invest it in, and thus how you choose to shape the future.

Absolutely, but I believe you are conflating investing vs donating. The literal definition of investing is:

> Allocating money (or capital) with the expectation of generating a return or profit over time.

Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#135

Post by pgodzin »

verdverm wrote: post #130
furyofantares wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've spent years watching prediction markets and finding them to be, by a wide margin, the most accurate way for me to understand the world. It is not remotely close. It sucks that they're going mainstream, providing incentives to bad actors to profit from their power, and it sucks that they've gone so heavily for the predatory gambling market to boot. I really hate this duality.

> the most accurate way for me to understand the world Are you sure it's not survivorship bias or similar? I've seen multiple trend lines that are very confident only to switch to the opposite outcome at the very end.

Are you sure you're not the one seeing the survivorship bias? Something that is 10% likely to happen ends up switching to the opposite outcome at the very end 1/10 times. There are thousands of prediction markets up at any given time, so there are going to be plenty of examples of unlikely events happening.

But there is plenty of research on how well-calibrated they are. For example, https://polymarket.com/accuracy

Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#136

Post by verdverm »

pgodzin wrote: post #135
verdverm wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the most accurate way for me to understand the world Are you sure it's not survivorship bias or similar? I've seen multiple trend lines that are very confident only to switch to the opposite outcome at the very end.

Are you sure you're not the one seeing the survivorship bias? Something that is 10% likely to happen ends up switching to the opposite outcome at the very end 1/10 times. There are thousands of prediction markets up at any given time, so there are going to be plenty of examples of unlikely events happening. But there is plenty of research on how well-calibrated they are. For example, https://polymarket.com/accuracy

Prediction markets, like many other micro-financialization trends, is unhealthy for society. I'm not going to trust research from the very company selling the product. History provides ample examples of how that works without the need to gamble on it.

I would invite you to look into the statistics on foreclosures, bankruptcy, and gambling hotline traffic which compare jurisdictions that have allowed this stuff vs not. Those with demographic breakdowns help to show those most at risk.

Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#138

Post by barchar »

elSidCampeador wrote: post #57

I believe NASA / EU provide daily satellite imagery for free (which is of relatively high quality too). I wonder if there's a way to take that data, and training some kind of image recognition model that figures out "movement" or something to the same end? Would be cool to see

I think sentinel-1 has a SAR instrument, it's very easy to see ships with that data

Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#139

Post by [deleted] »

anonfunction wrote: post #53
Jeremy1026 wrote: post #52

The data being ~4 days delayed does kind of make this less useful. It is a nice concept and cool to see the historical data though. Just think the domain and the large "NO" doesn't really fit with the lack of current data.

Totally agree, I put some text and tried to make it clear. My first intention was to find some live ship tracking API and see how many ships cross the strait, but they were all hundreds of dollars a month, and behind enterprise contact forms.

[deleted]

Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#140

Post by hattmall »

FrustratedMonky wrote: post #82
femiagbabiaka wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oman and Iran are splitting the fees RE: the statements by Iran.

And Trump. Didn't Trump float the Idea of a joint venture with Iran on the Fees? Amazing, that once you could make money on a toll, Trump was "there is profit in peace? lets get this peace thing going"

Trump and the US effectively control the commerce because they are the only source of insurance. Even with payments and promises from Iran, no ship is sailing without insurance coverage. There is no one insuring the ships other than the US program Trump created.
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