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Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

ishormuzopenyet.com

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Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#91

Post by heavyset_go »

FrustratedMonky wrote: post #80
tomtomtom777 wrote: post #78

This is a nice overview, but please remove the PolyMarket indicator. It is an obscene prediction mechanism as it creates horrible financial incentives to a war situation. Its degenerate effects have been featured here before. [1] Let's not condone "measurements" that are effectively ways for people to gain money on important political decisions, affecting the lives of many people. (1) https://news.ycombinator.com/ite…

> "obscene" And yet, it is the wisdom of the crowds. The crowds being obscene. Aren't we all constantly hitting re-fresh for updates, and making predictions. The prediction markets are just consolidating that 'desire'.

Putting bounties on people's heads and public lynchings are the wisdom of crowds and its obscenity in action.

Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#92

Post by acomjean »

ggm wrote: post #8

Maps can be so misleading. It looks like a dredging operation in Omani waters could alleviate this, if we'd started decades ago. Moving to a topographic view, it becomes clear the neck of land at "two seas view" is narrow, but tall. It would literally be moving a mountain. Panamax and suezmax boats are smaller than ULCC supertankers. Ferdinand De Lesseps time has passed. This would be ruinously expensive. Better to n…

It always amazed me they made ships that just fit the Panama canal. I went though the locks years ago, it was quite a trip (and how a friend got met to go on a cruise)

https://aramcomjean.smugmug.com/Panama-Canal/i-94PDM8F/A

Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#94

Post by FrustratedMonky »

tomtomtom777 wrote: post #89
FrustratedMonky wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. Maybe an un-expected outcome. Who could have foreseen that a government/person would actually blatantly start a war, and manipulate bombing raids in order to manipulate a market, without being charged with a crime himself. In sports betting, it seems obvious if a player throws a game. In a war? Surely nobody would do this, right? Who could imagine it.

You don't have to imagine some giant conspiracy. Fact is, that everyone can make a bet, and there are a lot of people with knowledge and influence in the political decisions made. In sports, at least the outcome is only effected by the sportsmen. Here, who knows which and how many people have inside knowledge and influence that they can use that to their financial advantage?

Yeah. I have to agree. My view has changed in last week.

I never imagined that markets could be so corrupted by those in power, without some other consequences somehow balancing out. Like being arrested, or removed from office.

Forget PolyMarket. We literally have bets being made on oil futures, directly before a tweet by the president. Openly profiting on direct minute by minute manipulation. Openly corrupt.

Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#95

Post by micromacrofoot »

nodesocket wrote: post #87
tomtomtom777 wrote: post #78

This is a nice overview, but please remove the PolyMarket indicator. It is an obscene prediction mechanism as it creates horrible financial incentives to a war situation. Its degenerate effects have been featured here before. [1] Let's not condone "measurements" that are effectively ways for people to gain money on important political decisions, affecting the lives of many people. (1) https://news.ycombinator.com/ite…

By this logic would you also consider trading OIL (USO) and Palantir a "obscene" market.

objectively so

Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#96

Post by killingtime74 »

anonfunction wrote: post #65
Jeremy1026 wrote: post #52

The data being ~4 days delayed does kind of make this less useful. It is a nice concept and cool to see the historical data though. Just think the domain and the large "NO" doesn't really fit with the lack of current data.

What do you think of adding prediction market data to the indication? So basically there's this: https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-return... My approach would be if that jumps up to 75%+ it would change to YES. And if we get into May they have one for then too: https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-return... You can actually see in the last 24 hours it jumped up with the ceasefire…

i didnt downvote you but why wouldn't i just go to Polymarket directly for this

Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#97

Post by [deleted] »

anonfunction wrote: post #61
elSidCampeador wrote: post #57

I believe NASA / EU provide daily satellite imagery for free (which is of relatively high quality too). I wonder if there's a way to take that data, and training some kind of image recognition model that figures out "movement" or something to the same end? Would be cool to see

Funnily enough, I did find a few satellite sources at the beginning for the map background and noticed that all the ships seemed to be scrubbed from the image. It's an interesting idea, thanks for the comment! The sources I used were: - ESRI World Imagery[1] — free satellite tiles, high-res, but ships are stripped out from the imagery - NASA GIBS - VIIRS[2] — near real-time daily satellite imagery from NASA, but reso…

[deleted]

Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#98

Post by letcree »

anonfunction wrote: post #61
elSidCampeador wrote: post #57

I believe NASA / EU provide daily satellite imagery for free (which is of relatively high quality too). I wonder if there's a way to take that data, and training some kind of image recognition model that figures out "movement" or something to the same end? Would be cool to see

Funnily enough, I did find a few satellite sources at the beginning for the map background and noticed that all the ships seemed to be scrubbed from the image. It's an interesting idea, thanks for the comment! The sources I used were: - ESRI World Imagery[1] — free satellite tiles, high-res, but ships are stripped out from the imagery - NASA GIBS - VIIRS[2] — near real-time daily satellite imagery from NASA, but reso…

Ai2 has vessel detection models for Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 (ESA) along with Landsat 8, Landsat 9, and VIIRS Nighttime Lights (NASA/USGS/NOAA):

- Sentinel-2 (10 m/pixel): https://github.com/allenai/rslearn_projects/blob/master/docs...

- Landsat (15-30 m/pixel): https://github.com/allenai/rslearn_projects/blob/master/docs...

- VIIRS Nighttime Lights: https://github.com/allenai/vessel-detection-viirs

I think you can see these vessel detections at https://app.skylight.earth/ ("Try out a limited version as a guest") but they seem to be delayed by 48 hours.

VIIRS is very low resolution but you can make out vessels with reasonable accuracy in the night-time images.

VIIRS covers most locations at least once per day, but the other sensors capture a given location only once per 5-10 days (although when combined, Sentinel-1/Sentinel-2/Landsat should provide close-to-daily coverage).

Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#99

Post by anonfunction »

killingtime74 wrote: post #96
anonfunction wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you think of adding prediction market data to the indication? So basically there's this: https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-return... My approach would be if that jumps up to 75%+ it would change to YES. And if we get into May they have one for then too: https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-return... You can actually see in the last 24 hours it jumped up with the ceasefire…

i didnt downvote you but why wouldn't i just go to Polymarket directly for this

I mean you obviously could, the url is a little harder to remember and it doesn't have crossing data. This was just a small fun project I did, so you're free to do whatever you like. The reason I thought of using polymarket data is I didn't have live ship tracking data which is what I originally intended to use.

Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#100

Post by tomtomtom777 »

nodesocket wrote: post #87
tomtomtom777 wrote: post #78

This is a nice overview, but please remove the PolyMarket indicator. It is an obscene prediction mechanism as it creates horrible financial incentives to a war situation. Its degenerate effects have been featured here before. [1] Let's not condone "measurements" that are effectively ways for people to gain money on important political decisions, affecting the lives of many people. (1) https://news.ycombinator.com/ite…

By this logic would you also consider trading OIL (USO) and Palantir a "obscene" market.

Actually yes. I put my money in things I would like to see shape the future, which I think is what investment should be about: shaping the future.

But disregarding this admittedly niche attitude; it's not the same thing. If you're opening bets on the ships being bombed before a certain date, you're opening incentives for people to do so. Although buying OIL or Palantir is morally questionable, it does not create such direct incentives.

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