[deleted]
Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?
81–90 of 224 posts
Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?
#82According to the Financial Times (1), the straight is "open" but Iran is extorting fees for passing ships. > "Iran will demand that shipping companies pay tolls in cryptocurrency for oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, as it seeks to retain control over passage through the key waterway during the two-week ceasefire." If they really will start doing so for all shipping, that would be odd since the straig…
Oman and Iran are splitting the fees RE: the statements by Iran.
And Trump.
Didn't Trump float the Idea of a joint venture with Iran on the Fees?
Amazing, that once you could make money on a toll, Trump was "there is profit in peace? lets get this peace thing going"
Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?
#83So apparently the reason they don’t just go for it is due to insurance. Because Iran technically isn’t suppose to just sink a civilian vessel, but the risk is there so the ships are ordered by the owner/stakeholder not to go due to the insurance coverage. Kind of interesting, they could technically call Iran’s bluff but it would mean, they violate the insurance contract and lose coverage? I’m just reading about this…
The capability is very real. And they don't have to sink the ship, just one Shahed drone exploding on the deck and injuring/killing a sailor is deterrence enough.
The Shahed drone is a 'set it and forget it' device where you program a stationary target and launch it. It would not work well for moving targets, like ships.
Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?
#84This is a nice overview, but please remove the PolyMarket indicator. It is an obscene prediction mechanism as it creates horrible financial incentives to a war situation. Its degenerate effects have been featured here before. [1] Let's not condone "measurements" that are effectively ways for people to gain money on important political decisions, affecting the lives of many people. (1) https://news.ycombinator.com/ite…
> "obscene" And yet, it is the wisdom of the crowds. The crowds being obscene. Aren't we all constantly hitting re-fresh for updates, and making predictions. The prediction markets are just consolidating that 'desire'.
Well, it would be if everyone betting wouldn't have an influence on the outcome. That's "wisdom of the crowds". But what if the people putting money on the Strait being closed are the same that close them? Surely, that's no longer the wisdom of the crowds at play. Just perverse incentives.
Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?
#85Earlier quoted context omitted.
CartoDB and Leaflet. Source is available here btw: https://github.com/montanaflynn/ishormuzopenyet
As an OpenStreetMap-contributor: you have to add attribution as per our license agreement: https://www.openstreetmap.org/copyright CartoDB packages this data into tiles you can use, but that doesn't lift this requirement.
Thank you for this comment, I just fixed it[1], don't know why claude code decided to hide it, I actually should have known this requirement and checked!
1. https://github.com/montanaflynn/ishormuzopenyet/commit/70a8c...
Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?
#86Earlier quoted context omitted.
> "obscene" And yet, it is the wisdom of the crowds. The crowds being obscene. Aren't we all constantly hitting re-fresh for updates, and making predictions. The prediction markets are just consolidating that 'desire'.
Well, it would be if everyone betting wouldn't have an influence on the outcome. That's "wisdom of the crowds". But what if the people putting money on the Strait being closed are the same that close them? Surely, that's no longer the wisdom of the crowds at play. Just perverse incentives.
I agree. Maybe an un-expected outcome.
Who could have foreseen that a government/person would actually blatantly start a war, and manipulate bombing raids in order to manipulate a market, without being charged with a crime himself.
In sports betting, it seems obvious if a player throws a game.
In a war? Surely nobody would do this, right? Who could imagine it.
Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?
#87This is a nice overview, but please remove the PolyMarket indicator. It is an obscene prediction mechanism as it creates horrible financial incentives to a war situation. Its degenerate effects have been featured here before. [1] Let's not condone "measurements" that are effectively ways for people to gain money on important political decisions, affecting the lives of many people. (1) https://news.ycombinator.com/ite…
By this logic would you also consider trading OIL (USO) and Palantir a "obscene" market.
Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?
#88This is a nice overview, but please remove the PolyMarket indicator. It is an obscene prediction mechanism as it creates horrible financial incentives to a war situation. Its degenerate effects have been featured here before. [1] Let's not condone "measurements" that are effectively ways for people to gain money on important political decisions, affecting the lives of many people. (1) https://news.ycombinator.com/ite…
By this logic would you also consider trading OIL (USO) and Palantir a "obscene" market.
Yes
Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?
#89Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well, it would be if everyone betting wouldn't have an influence on the outcome. That's "wisdom of the crowds". But what if the people putting money on the Strait being closed are the same that close them? Surely, that's no longer the wisdom of the crowds at play. Just perverse incentives.
I agree. Maybe an un-expected outcome. Who could have foreseen that a government/person would actually blatantly start a war, and manipulate bombing raids in order to manipulate a market, without being charged with a crime himself. In sports betting, it seems obvious if a player throws a game. In a war? Surely nobody would do this, right? Who could imagine it.
You don't have to imagine some giant conspiracy. Fact is, that everyone can make a bet, and there are a lot of people with knowledge and influence in the political decisions made.
In sports, at least the outcome is only effected by the sportsmen. Here, who knows which and how many people have inside knowledge and influence that they can use that to their financial advantage?
Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?
#90OP, DM me and I'll get you a persistent key for this data. Not from MarineTraffic
Aren't ships turning off their AIS when traveling the straight? I think https://atlas.flexport.com/ could also be a good source.