US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire • Hacker News Board

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#361

Post by oa335 » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 2:13 AM UTC

smcnc wrote: post #269

oa335 wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed How are they still firing missiles and downing aircraft?

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Sure, but they can still hit critical infrastructure. Iran still has missiles that can hit Israel, they just launched some more tonight.

War is about achieving political gains, even if it means material losses.

Compare the proposal that the US rejected in February to the 10 point plan that Trump now says is a "a very significant step" which he now " believes it is a workable basis on which to negotiate."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/article/trump-agrees-to-two...

The proposal in February mentions limiting nuclear enrichment.

"The Iranian proposal does not meet core US demands. US officials told the Wall Street Journal that Iran’s proposal would force Iran to reduce enrichment to as low as 1.5 percent, pause enrichment for a number of years, and process its enriched uranium through an Iran-based regional consortium.[11] Four unspecified Iranian officials told the New York Times on February 26 that Iran would also offer to dilute its 400 kg of 60 percent-enriched uranium in phases and allow IAEA inspectors to oversee all steps.”

https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-updat...

The new 10 point agreement (see top comment on this story) explicitly mentions "Acceptance of Iran's nuclear enrichment rights" and "Payment of damages to Iran for loss in the war" as conditions (along with lifting sanctions).

https://english.news.cn/20260408/dd8df6148df94252aaa1d3fbb59...

The new plan is CLEARLY a step backwards from the perspective of the USA and the fact that the US is entertaining it while Iran literally is still launching missiles to Israel means that this is clearly a step backwards for the US.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/no-immediate-re...

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#362

Post by estearum » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 2:13 AM UTC

spiderice wrote: post #353

smallmancontrov wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Ayatollah Booth is egg on the US's face regardless, but $2M/ship is about $1/barrel for perspective. Spot price is $95/barrel right now.

[flagged]

Funny how the only people who believe that are the people who have been wearing the red hats for years now

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#363

Post by gizajob » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 2:13 AM UTC

noelsusman wrote: post #351

smcnc wrote: post #237

I don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the…

The companies with billions on the line didn't seem to think Iran's threats to attack ships were impotent. Their military capabilities are diminished in the short term, but if their ability to impose a toll on the Strait of Hormuz holds then that's a massive win for Iran in the medium/long term. A mere $2M per ship represents 10% of Iran's GDP. They would become the only country in the world to impose a toll on inter…

Hard to spin your supreme leader and all your generals and military commanders being flattened as a win.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#364

Post by ignoramous » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 2:13 AM UTC

ericmay wrote: post #342

smallmancontrov wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Ayatollah Booth is egg on the US's face regardless, but $2M/ship is about $1/barrel for perspective. Spot price is $95/barrel right now.

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> Freedom of navigation is a core global principal

Unlike Bosporus & Suez (similar choke points in the region), there's no international arrangement for the Hormuz bottleneck, nor has Iran ratified UNCLOS ("Convention on the Law of the Sea").

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#365

Post by abhiyerra » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 2:14 AM UTC

spiderice wrote: post #353

smallmancontrov wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Ayatollah Booth is egg on the US's face regardless, but $2M/ship is about $1/barrel for perspective. Spot price is $95/barrel right now.

[flagged]

California is more reliant on foreign oil. https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/califo...

And seems about 23% comes from the Middle East. https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/califo...

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#366

Post by avidiax » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 2:14 AM UTC

steve-atx-7600 wrote: post #268

avidiax wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Barring something catastrophic happening, I would bet that nothing will unseat Trump until January 20, 2027, at 12:00 PM (noon). At that point, when J.D. Vance is inaugurated, he would be allowed to run and serve for 2 additional full terms (10 years total as president). Before that, his partial term would count as a full term, and he could only run, win and serve one additional term. This is all based on the 22nd Am…

Trump has power because he shows up to a rally and tons of folks join. People want to follow him. JD who?

JD being less popular that Trump is an advantage that the Democratic party can easily squander.

He is pretty popular with the base, and only needs to look more palatable than whomever the opposition puts forward to the swing voters. The fact that he's relatively boring will suppress Democratic turnout somewhat.

And in the case that Trump leaves office due to health reasons, there will be a "rally around the flag" vibe that gives him a boost.

That's not to say that he's certain to win, but he would have many advantages if he serves a partial term and seems to be tracking better.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#367

Post by jacquesm » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 2:14 AM UTC

ourmandave wrote: post #304

Aloisius wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To manipulate the price of oil.

But only some sort of sociopath would upend the world just to make a buck. Esp if they're already a billionaire with literally hundreds of other conflicts of interest.

> But only some sort of sociopath would upend the world just to make a buck.

You may be on to something there.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#368

Post by computerex » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 2:14 AM UTC

smcnc wrote: post #334

computerex wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wars are about objectives. The USA managed to accomplish none of its objectives. Iran forced USA to concede and call for ceasefire before US could achieve objectives. That’s the definition of defeat. Iran won by not losing and holding out. Iran has more leverage at the end of this war than it did at the start. Iran has proven that it has the capability to catastrophically disrupt global economy.

More leverage with less conventional firepower? Objectives of reducing conventional military threats and nuclear weapons seem less now, no?

1. The strait had freedom of navigation before, now Iran controls it.

2. It was suspected Iran would shut the strait in a conflict. Its ability to enforce the closure was question. Iran has now proven it can enforce control of the strait and American can’t do anything about it.

3. The negotiation plans mentions nothing of denuclearization. Iran doesn’t even need a nuclear deterrence now they have proven that closing the strait works so well.

4. The regime didnt collapse, leader replaced by the more hardline son. Command and control continued to function despite attempted decapitation.

5. Iran inflicted billions of dollars worth of damage to US assets forcing US soldiers to flee and reside in hotels.

6. Despite taking a pounding by America for over a month they can still target and destroy local targets as retaliation as they proved yesterday by striking large Saudi petrochemical plant and striking in the heart of Israel.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#369

Post by rokhayakebe » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 2:15 AM UTC

megamike wrote: post #31

Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran t…

That's just anchoring.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#370

Post by estearum » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 2:16 AM UTC

fernandopj wrote: post #340

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have the U.S. and Iran agreed the points? Or is this two weeks to hammer them down?

Two weeks of open Strait to nail the final version, yes. I guess gas prices in US will cool down to pre-war price averages and the pressure not to resume aggression will be huge.

Two weeks of open Strait [1]

[1]: in coordination with the Iranian military [2]

[2]: with preference for Iran's friends[3]

[3]: and fees paid to Iran