US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire • Hacker News Board

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#311

Post by smcnc » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 1:56 AM UTC

squibonpig wrote: post #296

smcnc wrote: post #237

I don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the…

Asymmetric warfare shouldn't be measured on the metrics of conventional warfare. Iran can continue to cause enormous economic pain for the world without any of that.

Agree with same comment as above.

> This is true. 90% destruction of military is meaningless if 10% can wreck havoc on the strait. The cost associated with eliminating that 10% was deemed too much. That is Iran’s “win”.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#312

Post by kumarvvr » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 1:57 AM UTC

smcnc wrote: post #237

I don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the…

I think the nature of war has changed. A slow moving swarm of drones, will keep large Aircraft carriers well outside the range of their fighter jets.

A nation can swarm an aircraft carrier with a 1000 drones, each costing about 40k USD. Only a few are needed to seriously damage the carrier. Not to mention ballistic missiles.

In this scenario, does a US massive, slow moving aircraft carrier possibly carrying hundreds of billions of assets really work ? Can the US meaningfully project power with these?

In this scenario, who holds more power or leverage ?

An aircraft carrier can project power within 500 miles. The idea is to use a few of these to knock out the air power of the opposing nation, basically airfields, missile stockpiles, factories, power infra, etc. And then drop in a ground invasion force.

Does this now work? I dont think so. 10 drones can be launched from the back of a truck.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#313

Post by smcnc » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 1:57 AM UTC

andrepd wrote: post #298

smcnc wrote: post #237

I don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the…

> Iran is a shell of the threat it was a month ago. That's why it is crippling the entire world's economy and demanding concessions bigger than the status quo ante bellum, with the US powerless to stop it. Because it's no threat.

> 90% destruction of military is meaningless if 10% can wreck havoc on the strait. The cost associated with eliminating that 10% was deemed too much. That is Iran’s “win”.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#314

Post by lawgimenez » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 1:57 AM UTC

smcnc wrote: post #237

I don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the…

And destroyed a school full of children too.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#315

Post by zarzavat » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 1:57 AM UTC

smcnc wrote: post #269

oa335 wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed How are they still firing missiles and downing aircraft?

[flagged]

That's why the US won in Vietnam. Guerrilla warfare was no match for the planes and ships of the US military which swiftly defeated the Vietnamese and installed a friendly capitalist government.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#316

Post by Eufrat » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 1:57 AM UTC

dinkumthinkum wrote: post #231

Eufrat wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are no talks or anything. Iran has no incentive to negotiate with a party as unreliable as the US is under Trump. I would literally negotiate with a dead opossum before I would continue to negotiate with Witkoff and Kushner. I mean, as much as I don’t like the Iranian government, put yourselves in their position. You have the US and Israel literally leveling the equivalent of Balfour or the White House and taki…

When you use words like "decapitation strike that failed, but killed off all of the moderates," what do those words mean to you? With all due respect, I don't really get the Internet brain way of thinking of things. What decapitation failed? I guess, if you mean, there are still Islamic Revolution people in charge, I still can't see the point. When you say "failed" that would imply that they were literally attempting…

> I get that most people here think the West and America is evil or whatever but the idea the Ayatollah and top members of the IRGC were moderate is just an affront to morality.

I really don’t understand this logic. I find it rather myopic and based on one’s own pain. Everything is relative, unfortunately. The idea that I would in any way condone or argue that the Iranian regime is not culpable of its own massive war crimes, grifting and other crimes against its own people is…bizarre. I am well aware of the crimes of the Iranian regime and look forward to the day it is removed, but I don’t think this is it. Even Trump admits that they killed off all of the people they thought would be more amenable to work with the US which is just a level of incompetence I can’t fathom, but here we are.

Unfortunately, in practice, moral absolutism does not exist in international relations. The evidence is right in front of your face of this fact. We could go through the litany of crimes against people that we (the US) have condoned or facilitate or been unresponsive to. The folks in Beijing have also committed unspeakable acts against their own people and others, so why aren’t we bombing them right now? Why Iran right now? Haiti is a failed state nobody seems interested in caring about. We failed to stop a genocidal massacre in Rwanda…

> When you say “failed” that would imply that they were literally attempting to kill literally every single member of the government at once.

I literally believe that Trump thought this given that he openly admitted he ignored the military and intelligence agencies telling him that this was a terrible idea. I agree that nobody rational would think this, but I argue that Trump never lies even when he says he is joking. He literally thinks as POTUS he can do whatever he wants.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#317

Post by throw0101c » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 1:58 AM UTC

smcnc wrote: post #237

I don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the…

> Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships?

* Which doesn't mean much nowadays: see Ukraine, and the perseverance of the Taliban who eventually got their way.

* Are you talking about now? Or last year when everyone was told that the nuclear program was obliterated? If it was then, why was there a second round of attacks in this year? And it's not like the existing stockpiles of enriched uranium vanished.

* As Ukraine has shown, you can have a defence industry in people's basements churning out 4M drones per year that can do a lot of damage.

* Yes, the past leadership was KIA. And new people were put in place who are more hardliner hawks than what was taken out. So how is a more hawk-ish regime a "win" for the US?

* An "impotent attack" that has kept several thousand ships sidelined in the Gulf? That has caused fuel (petrol, diesel, kerosene, LNG) prices skyrocket? That have caused helium (needed in chip manufacturing, MRIs, etc) prices to triple? If that's "impotent" I would hate to see effective.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#318

Post by jrochkind1 » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 1:58 AM UTC

sosomoxie wrote: post #292

icegreentea2 wrote: post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one has agreed to the Iran's 10 point plan, and they're not going to get all of it. The provisional ceasefire actually goes against the Iranian proposition. Point 2 explicitly is "permanent end to the war, not a ceasefire". Iran backed down a bit here from their maximalist aims (which is what the 10 point is).

Trump literally said he would bomb them to the stone age. It doesn’t get more maximalist than that and it was the US that backed down.

I mean, neither one did what they said they would do, if they had both done what they said they'd do, I guess we'd have nuclear war, so. (To the extent that you can't get anything consistent out of what Trump says he will do it's literally not possible, because he constantly contradicts himself.)

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#319

Post by doctorpangloss » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 1:58 AM UTC

squibonpig wrote: post #296

smcnc wrote: post #237

I don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the…

Asymmetric warfare shouldn't be measured on the metrics of conventional warfare. Iran can continue to cause enormous economic pain for the world without any of that.

> Iran can continue to cause enormous economic pain for the world without any of that.

should every non-Western country be subsidizing all consumer fuel costs?

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#320

Post by smallmancontrov » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 1:58 AM UTC

Aloisius wrote: post #260

megamike wrote: post #31

Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran t…

Iran's semi-official Mehr News Agency (via China's state news agency Xinhua[0]) claims the 10 points are: 1. U.S. commitment to ensure no further acts of aggression 2. Continued Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz 3. Acceptance of Iran's nuclear enrichment rights 4. Lifting of all primary sanctions 5. Lifting of all secondary sanctions 6. Termination of all United Nations Security Council resolutions against Iran…

The Ayatollah Booth is egg on the US's face regardless, but $2M/ship is about $1/barrel for perspective. Spot price is $95/barrel right now.