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We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

derekthompson.org

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Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#301

Post by jongjong »

Well corporate stocks have the same dynamic. People are banding together and manipulating reality in unproductive ways to make their stocks go up.

Countries literally go to war so that weapon dealers can sell weapons and banks can later sell loans to rebuild the country.

The real problem is centralization of power.

Within the horrible context of the current situation, it's a good thing that at least there is a force to drive outcomes that seem random as opposed to just being around money. It democratizes the horrors a bit so that rich people who have money and live in corporate stock lala land can get a slight taste of the negatives of large-scale vested interests collaborating towards dystopian outcomes.

That said, a better solution would be to shut down all public markets and companies.

My view is that if a company is so well recognized that government officials can reference it by name in congress, then that company should be shut down automatically. We know it didn't get there by economic efficiency... It almost certainly got there by voting and sociopolitical manipulation.

You can't shut down betting markets without shutting down the public stock markets because they are betting markets themselves.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#302

Post by kingleopold »

mr_00ff00 wrote: post #284
kingleopold wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This goes back to dying for your own country at scale for wars that had nothing to with risking your family, your land, your country. back then if you refused to fight for war that never risked anyting you care, they would literally killed you or made you slave labor.

Are you saying this is specific to the US? I think you would be hard pressed to find a country that didn’t get involved in some war that had nothing to do with defense.

nope, it's as old as war itself

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#303

Post by paulryanrogers »

cryptoegorophy wrote: post #53
hydroflame7 wrote: post #4

'Predictions' market is the silliest loophole for gambling. Honestly, more surprised Fanduel, DraftKings and the like who have spent millions on lobbying and buying licenses, are not fighting tooth and nail on this.

And there is a kid’s legal version! They sell them in Walmart - Pokémon packs. I don’t know how any of this is legal in a civilized country.

I have mixed feelings being a parent now. It can be fun to get a mystery box or pack. But it does feed on the anticipation and rush of surprise. Kids seem to lack the self control to stop. Video games seem the worst to me since they're so intangible it's easier to get carried away before others notice.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#304

Post by WickyNilliams »

taurath wrote: post #94

The entire country seems built on taking advantage of people, from my vantage point right now. Whether it’s attention, drugs, or business/legal leverage, everyone is out for advantage and they’re not even pretending to care about people they affect.

I'm still reeling from the fact that the sitting president pumped some meme coin the day (iirc) he took office. And this largely passed by without any consequence, reckoning, or repercussions. It's just accepted now that even the highest office will scam their own supporters

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#305

Post by andrewflnr »

How much of this is fixed if a person is only able to bet token amounts on each outcome? Let's get crazy and make it $20. A few crazy people might run Sybil attacks but it'll be a lot more limited and obvious. Not that I'm opposed to consigning all these gambling apps back to the fiery depths from which they came, but if you do want to preserve the ability of healthy people to have a little bit of fun, limiting the bet size has almost no effect on that while drastically reducing the damage. It seems like a good compromise, if anyone is looking for one of those.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#306

Post by edwcross »

brailsafe wrote: post #261
socalgal2 wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can, because the definition of gambling is loose. Magic The Gathering is gambling. You by a pack and hope you get a valuable card, no different than buying a lottery ticket and hope you win. Pokemon Go is also gambling. You pay to hatch eggs and hope you get a rare pokemon. I'm pretty confident the people who made these games don't consider their design to be evil or wrong. In fact, I'm sure they see themselves h…

I'd be slightly more specific with those assertions, and point them at the gambling mechanics themselves, although I do agree. The games are not inseparable from those mechanics, and are quite fun on their own. I just got into magic, and am sadly watching my more gambling prone friends fall down that rabit hole. They keep asking me what cards I've bought or whatever and the answer is none, aside from a starter deck.…

One of the only good things I got from MtG is Card Forge (https://card-forge.github.io/forge/), an open-source unofficial rule engine that also contains a desktop and a mobile app.

They allow playing a game similar to the old Shandalar from Microprose, in which you wander around a world dueling enemies (playing MtG against them), getting money and resources, and improving your deck until you can beat the big bosses.

It's one of the best ways to play the game: single-player, offline, and unofficial. Therefore you can have almost any card in existence without having to gamble with real-world money. It lets you enjoy the strategic part of the game and its meta, including deck building. The only downside is that the single-player game robs you of part of the charm, that is playing with other people.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#307

Post by keybored »

socalgal2 wrote: post #194
jackfruitpeel wrote: post #88

The craziest thing here is that online gambling has been legal in the UK and Ireland for many years, and it's been such an obvious negative for those countries — and had been optimized brutally like any other tech product. When I moved over to the US a decade ago, I remember thinking 'well at least they're smart enough to have banned online gambling'. I am very pro personal liberties, but this stuff is weaponized to…

> I am very pro personal liberties, but this stuff is weaponized to prey on a subset of humanity This triggers thoughts. I don't like people being taken advantage of. At the same time, I like my personal liberties. It feels like you can spin this idea for nearly anything. Apparently 25% of alcohol sales are to alcoholics. That sucks and you could spin this has the liquor companies taking advantage, but I have tons of…

> I don't have a solution,

Just try to entertain any alternatives. Any at all.

There could be public option to opt-in to have your specific “personal liberties” curtailed, like for alcohol. Doesn’t affect you at all. Completely opt-in. Only for those who want it.

No solutions? Or no corporate-backed solutions?

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47532954

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#308

Post by closewith »

socalgal2 wrote: post #249
stuffn wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The real litmus test for your beliefs is gun rights. Taken to it's logical conclusion you would think that you would be staunchly pro 2A.

I'm not sure my position on 2A but it seems you're making a pretty big leap to connect them. Guns kill others. To me, that's a big difference. Gambling does not, only indirectly, you gamble your money away your family doesn't eat. But if you're going indirect than anything fits. Cars kill more than guns. You could argue the similarity is that some people can be responsible with guns and others can't but you're back t…

> Cars kill more than guns.

In most countries, but not in the US.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#309

Post by isubkhankulov »

WickyNilliams wrote: post #304
taurath wrote: post #94

The entire country seems built on taking advantage of people, from my vantage point right now. Whether it’s attention, drugs, or business/legal leverage, everyone is out for advantage and they’re not even pretending to care about people they affect.

I'm still reeling from the fact that the sitting president pumped some meme coin the day (iirc) he took office. And this largely passed by without any consequence, reckoning, or repercussions. It's just accepted now that even the highest office will scam their own supporters

The US government and private interests are clearly incentivized to keep the crypto industry subdued to a chaotic casino. Participants engage willingly. If crypto is legitimized, it threatens the US dollar, sanctions regime and the US’s ability to project power as the world leading reserve currency.

The president and any other shitcoin operator know this and are playing the game on the field.

Every country has the same challenge. Some ban crypto, which pushes it to the grey market in those jurisdictions.

Hopefully that helps explain why there weren’t and wont be any consequences.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#310

Post by closewith »

littlecranky67 wrote: post #183
UqWBcuFx6NV4r wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

If it is your company then this is fine, it is your money afterall, and can do as you see fit. If you are employed or have co-shareholders, you are managing someone elses money. And you are not supposed to act within your morals, but those of the company. It would be kind of hipocritical to act on your own morals using someone elses money - up to the point where it could be illegal misapropriation. And then taking th…

No, you should always follow you're own moral code.

Companies don't have morals, only people. Abdicating your moral responsibilities because you're employed is cowardice.

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