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We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

derekthompson.org

281–290 of 741 posts

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#281
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, and pay our enemies to reveal their secrets to us. That's exactly the point of these things. Dangle money in front of people who know things we want to know.

[flagged]

> You don’t have any enemies. Nobody cares about you. Nobody is coming to hurt you or your family

Do you think the U.S. and Israeli militaries have personal vendettas against each and every civilian we've killed in Iran? Of course we don't. We can barely count them. Just because you aren't personally on your community's adversary's radar doesn't mean they aren't a threat.

(To be clear, I don't believe Iran was a threat. But there are threats to Americans, and it's absolutley not brainwashing to ascribe a threat to a group to oneself personally instead of waiting for it to be purely selfishly relevant before acting.)

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#282

The craziest thing here is that online gambling has been legal in the UK and Ireland for many years, and it's been such an obvious negative for those countries — and had been optimized brutally like any other tech product. When I moved over to the US a decade ago, I remember thinking 'well at least they're smart enough to have banned online gambling'. I am very pro personal liberties, but this stuff is weaponized to…

> I am very pro personal liberties, but this stuff is weaponized to prey on a subset of humanity This triggers thoughts. I don't like people being taken advantage of. At the same time, I like my personal liberties. It feels like you can spin this idea for nearly anything. Apparently 25% of alcohol sales are to alcoholics. That sucks and you could spin this has the liquor companies taking advantage, but I have tons of…

Why does it have to be either/or? Why not just ban the thing you don't want and just criminalise the whaling?

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or you are simply better at predicting the future than most other people.

Being good at predicting the future will give you only a slight edge, so even a small amount of inside trading can make you unprofitable.

Not really. I have a pretty solid 5+% edge over a long time period even on the competitive markets I bet in. On many markets I think it's closer to 10-20%. These are things that inside information can't really help as much as you'd think.

And even on markets where someone would benefit from inside information... insiders leak a lot more information than you'd think before it tends to hit the market. Even reading the news can tell you more than you'd think if you look at it right. The single biggest hint is "Why am I reading this, and why now?". News stories on geopolitics almost never arise naturally, and that question will get you to a LOT of information that was not explicitly stated.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#284
post #94

The entire country seems built on taking advantage of people, from my vantage point right now. Whether it’s attention, drugs, or business/legal leverage, everyone is out for advantage and they’re not even pretending to care about people they affect.

This goes back to dying for your own country at scale for wars that had nothing to with risking your family, your land, your country. back then if you refused to fight for war that never risked anyting you care, they would literally killed you or made you slave labor.

Are you saying this is specific to the US?

I think you would be hard pressed to find a country that didn’t get involved in some war that had nothing to do with defense.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#285

> I don’t think people have thought hard enough about how bad this could get. given that the crypto anarchist papers from the 90s that these markets are built on are very well thought out instruction manuals about how bad it could get, this title implies users are gullible idiots as opposed to the creators and power users An individual's susceptibility to a vice is an individual problem. So I take issue with all the…

> An individual's susceptibility to a vice is an individual problem. libertarianism is a cancer

Not as much as Communism, but both seem like utopian ideologies based on an idealized model of human behavior.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#286

The craziest thing here is that online gambling has been legal in the UK and Ireland for many years, and it's been such an obvious negative for those countries — and had been optimized brutally like any other tech product. When I moved over to the US a decade ago, I remember thinking 'well at least they're smart enough to have banned online gambling'. I am very pro personal liberties, but this stuff is weaponized to…

> I'm in senior leadership, and have made it clear that anyone who has worked on these products should not be hired. I appreciate your approach, but I wonder: would you hire somebody with a past in Meta, or ByteDance (to just name two)? They are at least as bad in pushing addiction to people, maybe worse if you think about the scale.

A feed is optimized for engagement.

A casino is optimized to take your rent money.

The broader move, "you don't like X? so Y is good?," can extend forever. Defense contractors, payday loan apps, ad-tech...

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#287

The craziest thing here is that online gambling has been legal in the UK and Ireland for many years, and it's been such an obvious negative for those countries — and had been optimized brutally like any other tech product. When I moved over to the US a decade ago, I remember thinking 'well at least they're smart enough to have banned online gambling'. I am very pro personal liberties, but this stuff is weaponized to…

> and have made it clear that anyone who has worked on these products should not be hired. I encourage this concept but also to expand it further, including the ones who work on other evil schemes like the ones used to violate your privacy, sell your data, and participate in sketchy business and/or contracts. Just like how I don’t want to work with someone who develops a gambling platform, I don’t want to work with s…

...or you could look at their resume. btw, maybe i'm missing the joke, but working on the system you're describing would put you on the black list.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> An individual's susceptibility to a vice is an individual problem. Maybe if you're Tom Hanks in Castaway. In real life, people contract lung damage from secondhand smoke; homes are mortgaged to fund gambling habits; families are destroyed by drunk drivers. That's not to say that people can't partake in their vices responsibly. But the idea that any harms are limited to the person with the problem is just not true.

the basis of my view is the observation that homes can be mortgaged to trade financial markets as well all the protective frameworks out there do not prevent someone from becoming a debt serf or excluded from the credit markets if they want to

Sure, there isn't a silver bullet that magically prevents all possible harm while also imposing no burden or inconvenience. The basis of my view is that the non-existence of such a framework is a terrible reason to have no protective framework at all.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#289
post #94

The entire country seems built on taking advantage of people, from my vantage point right now. Whether it’s attention, drugs, or business/legal leverage, everyone is out for advantage and they’re not even pretending to care about people they affect.

I saw someone say recently "hobbies are a luxury" and I tend to agree.

Think back decades ago and you had a single person or a family supported by a single income who could afford the rent or to buy their house and put their kids through college.

By the late 1970s and 1980s the balance had shifted to where more households than not had both parents working.

Then people started having multiple jobs. This was in part because employers didn't want to employ people full-time as they'd have to offer benefits, most notably health insurance.

And the last 10+ years has taken this further where we now have "side gigs" or "side hustles" or people who are desperate to be "influencers" or "Youtubers" or whatever. Any hobby you have needs to be monetized to get by. You have to sell something, even if it's advice on how to do the thing.

That's what's meant by "hobbies are a luxury". It means you're earning enough not to need to monetize some portion of your life. And the number of people who can do that is continually decreasing.

The problem is capitalism. If you have a hobby, the capital owners haven't loaded you with enough debt (student, medical, housing). You're too independent. You may do unacceptable things like demand raises and better working conditions or, worse yet, withhold your labor. You're spending at least some of your time not creating value for some capital owner to exploit.

Every aspect of our lives is getting financialized so somebody else can get wealthier. Every second of your time and thing you do needs to be monetized and exploited.

Gambling isn't a net negative for society. It's just a negative. There are no positive aspects to it. Gambling addicts are incredibly likely to commit suicide. It's incredibly destructive.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#290

Why is this such a big deal? I don't get why people make such a big deal betting on sports; if you want to waste your money go for it.

Because there are societal costs to poverty, regardless of how people arrive there. Gambling can be as addictive and personally and societally destructive as any drug.
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