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We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

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Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#91

Post by tech_ken »

blitzar wrote: post #62

Americans may be shocked to hear that in the rest of the world gambling has been a thing for centuries. We also have people under the age of 20 drinking alcohol. I am not suggesting in any way that gambling is good - but it wasnt invented last week in america

Can't speak for everyone here, but I (as a US citizen) am way less bothered by sports gambling specifically than I am by generalized Kalshi-type gambling being abused by powerful insiders in the federal government (or other institutions). Like yeah I don't think it's great that we've enabled yet another route for young men to completely ruin their lives, but civil liberties, personal responsibility, etc. etc. etc.

What really is scaring me is how transparently the current US executive branch has been basically running a Black Sox scam for the last year or so. This is not something that I think is really happening with eg. Ladbrokes. Seems more like an even more insidious form of insider trading which is already disgustingly prevalent across the whole US political system; except now it's even less traceable, and even easier to exploit for things like military actions.

edit: Like is this kind of stuff already prevalent in places where gambling is legal? https://readwrite.com/threats-israeli-reporter-polymarket/

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#92

Post by paulddraper »

jackfruitpeel wrote: post #88

The craziest thing here is that online gambling has been legal in the UK and Ireland for many years, and it's been such an obvious negative for those countries — and had been optimized brutally like any other tech product. When I moved over to the US a decade ago, I remember thinking 'well at least they're smart enough to have banned online gambling'. I am very pro personal liberties, but this stuff is weaponized to…

They’re the financial equivalent of recreational drugs.

Not everyone gets addicted, but many do. Harms your own health/assets. Can destroy lives. Has spillover effects into general society.

The libertarian/authoritarian argument is much the same.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#93

Post by AStrangeMorrow »

slopinthebag wrote: post #33
echelon wrote: post #13

Assassinations markets are what's next. eg. someone will bet $1M that Elon Musk will be assassinated in 2026. But these don't themselves even have to be legal. Second order wagers will be placed on SpaceX and Tesla stock prices, bets that "a hundred billionaire will die in 2026", etc. A bet that Putin will be assassinated could be encoded in, "there will be regime change in Russia."

Is it actually illegal to bet on an assassination?

I am not sure, but you don’t have to technically bet on assassination. You can bet on an event which would happen as a result of said assassination. X won’t get re-elected. Company Y CEO will change in 2027. This is artist Z last tour. Athlete K won’t participate in this event etc.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#94

Post by taurath »

The entire country seems built on taking advantage of people, from my vantage point right now. Whether it’s attention, drugs, or business/legal leverage, everyone is out for advantage and they’re not even pretending to care about people they affect.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#96

Post by mhh__ »

sam0x17 wrote: post #84
hydroflame7 wrote: post #4

'Predictions' market is the silliest loophole for gambling. Honestly, more surprised Fanduel, DraftKings and the like who have spent millions on lobbying and buying licenses, are not fighting tooth and nail on this.

Especially when the "prediction" part isn't even part of the product, it is an accidental byproduct. No one pays for access to the predictions. And they aren't predictions, they are more like "outcome-shaping" markets, since the more liquidity that gets dumped on a particular outcome, the more motivation there is to tamper with the real-world outcome, and at a certain point it will just always happen if it is billion…

Those predictions are just market data, market data is often very expensive (my data usage at work is probably about $100k a year and i'm not even a trader), I imagine polymarket will be too when they are more established.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#97

Post by willio58 »

jackfruitpeel wrote: post #88

The craziest thing here is that online gambling has been legal in the UK and Ireland for many years, and it's been such an obvious negative for those countries — and had been optimized brutally like any other tech product. When I moved over to the US a decade ago, I remember thinking 'well at least they're smart enough to have banned online gambling'. I am very pro personal liberties, but this stuff is weaponized to…

I live in a state in the U.S. that’s had legalized gambling for decades. I grew up seeing gambling addicts walk around my city.

It’s always been bad, but in my eyes it’s so much worse now that anyone can tip tap on their phone and gamble away everything they have. At least you used to have to fly to Vegas or something to bet (and lose) big.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#98

Post by jbxntuehineoh »

amazingamazing wrote: post #38

More doomer takes. The world survived two world wars and a cold war. This stuff is nothing. Engagement bait as usual.

> Oh, you think (bad thing) might happen? Why do you even care when (worse thing) happened in the past? Checkmate! I am very intelligent.

gr8 b8 m8 i r8 8/8

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#99

Post by learn_more »

hermannj314 wrote: post #83

I got into weather betting markets earlier this year since I figured those can't possibly be rigged, it is automated weather station data yet some groups in the market know the truth a few minutes before everyone else based on the way the markets move. BUT, I stopped on the day that the PHL airport preliminary report said the low of the day was 17 and then later than day the low was raised to 18. The way the market w…

it seems this could be solved by refusing last minute bets?

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#100

Post by ragazzina »

blitzar wrote: post #62

Americans may be shocked to hear that in the rest of the world gambling has been a thing for centuries. We also have people under the age of 20 drinking alcohol. I am not suggesting in any way that gambling is good - but it wasnt invented last week in america

In my European country gambling is very strictly regulated. Isn’t it the same in yours?
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