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Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

timesofisrael.com

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Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#941

Post by sam0x17 »

janalsncm wrote: post #611
sam0x17 wrote: post #459

I really wonder whether privacy would actually be the answer here --- prediction markets as they are now where the odds are public really shouldn't be called prediction markets, they should be called "outcome-shaping markets" because largely that is what they do, they let people shape real-world outcomes with massive amounts of liquidity. If instead these were privacy protocols where you can see how much liquidity is…

That wouldn’t solve the issue in the article. The gamblers threatening the journalist know how much money they individually gambled on an outcome, which means they know how much they stand to lose if they cannot pressure a source to alter reporting in their favor.

The problem in the article is sort of boring, this is nothing new, centralized authorities who run prediction markets have been doing a terrible job at wording the predictions and then people get pissed when those poorly written words are put through a forcing function. Incompetence is boring.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#942

Post by rectang »

mr_toad wrote: post #915
rectang wrote: post #662

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dollars to donuts that "libertine" was just as deliberate as the "satanic" that followed it.

I was prepared to give them the benefit of the doubt, but if it was deliberate it’s worse; it descends beyond mere polemics and is just casting baseless and unfounded aspersions.

I quite enjoyed it. Smith has long been commandeered by libertine laissez-faire cultists who have severed the “invisible hand” from his body of work to worship as a relic.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#944

Post by hattmall »

awakeasleep wrote: post #389

I’m surprised no one has mentioned that there was no safe course of action for the journalist because there was money on both sides of this outcome. No matter what he reported, he would have the other side threatening him.

Defer to an actual authority. Where is the official report on whether or not it was an interception? Even with a large explosion the fact that it landed in a wooded area implies it was intercepted. Those are targeted missiles, an acceptable result of an interception is to bring it down in an undeveloped area.

So I would think there should be some sort of authority with official capacity to state what happened, not just a random journalist that doesn't give concrete sources.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#945

Post by jedberg »

travisjungroth wrote: post #818
jedberg wrote: post #805

It seems like the easy solution is for polymarket to just unwind the transaction and give everyone their money back, no harm no foul.

That would mean the people who did the death threats get their money back.

Yes. And then they won't want to kill the journalist anymore. Because otherwise they are going to lose all their money.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#946

Post by Barbing »

rtkwe wrote: post #683
margalabargala wrote: post #624

As someone generally against gambling, I think there's a fair point to be made that Polymarket and similar sites are not fundamentally different from e.g. sports betting. The issue of bribing/threatening a sports player to throw a game has existed for over a century. It's not a new problem. The only thing special about Polymarket is the expansion of surface area. My preferred solution would be to just ban it all, or…

At least with sports betting it's limited in scope. Polymarket applies the same warping influence to the whole of politics and daily life. That's the biggest problem and difference to me, yes it sucks if teams are throwing or players are altering their play to make or break bets but ultimately the effect/danger of that incentive is limited. And with the more limited and well enumerated pool of potential insiders plac…

Was I a sucker for believing that Kalshi was going to [e.g.] help farmers hedge against drought years or is the problem just morally bankrupt selection of events?

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#947

Post by rtkwe »

Barbing wrote: post #946
rtkwe wrote: post #683

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least with sports betting it's limited in scope. Polymarket applies the same warping influence to the whole of politics and daily life. That's the biggest problem and difference to me, yes it sucks if teams are throwing or players are altering their play to make or break bets but ultimately the effect/danger of that incentive is limited. And with the more limited and well enumerated pool of potential insiders plac…

Was I a sucker for believing that Kalshi was going to [e.g.] help farmers hedge against drought years or is the problem just morally bankrupt selection of events?

If they said that and you believed it kinda. There are already markets and insurance schemes to allow farmers to do that though through crop insurance, it's a very old and even government subsidized to keep the prices down in many countries. Farmers in need of that can already insure their crops to make $XXX amount of money to make sure they break even on the crop for the year for example there's no real need to bet on the amount of rain to reach that same goal.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#948

Post by 7jjjjjjj »

Barbing wrote: post #946
rtkwe wrote: post #683

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least with sports betting it's limited in scope. Polymarket applies the same warping influence to the whole of politics and daily life. That's the biggest problem and difference to me, yes it sucks if teams are throwing or players are altering their play to make or break bets but ultimately the effect/danger of that incentive is limited. And with the more limited and well enumerated pool of potential insiders plac…

Was I a sucker for believing that Kalshi was going to [e.g.] help farmers hedge against drought years or is the problem just morally bankrupt selection of events?

We already have an extremely complicated system of farm insurance and commodity futures for that.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#949

Post by mpalmer »

colesantiago wrote: post #54
mpalmer wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have a positive defense of betting markets? You're spraying defensive whataboutism all over this thread and lowering the discourse. > Prediction Markets you don't have to participate, so no harm done. Harm: https://www.npr.org/2025/11/13/nx-s1-5605561/college-athlete... Harm: https://militarnyi.com/en/news/in-november-an-isw-analyst-ma... Harm: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/05/prediction-markets-merkley-b...

Why did you send in an article that was completely irrelevant that has nothing to do with prediction markets? What you're showing me is a death threat, which has existed for time in humans. Betting markets of all kinds have existed for a long time and haven't been banned. Banning on particular betting market prediction markets altogether and pushing it underground would make things far worse.

    What you're showing me is a [war crime], which has existed for time in humans.

    [Wars] of all kinds have existed for a long time and haven't been banned.

    Banning on [particular tactics in war] altogether and pushing it underground would make things far worse.
Do you see the problem with your logic?

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#950

Post by devmor »

margalabargala wrote: post #938
croes wrote: post #928

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there is a fundamental difference between betting on a sports event and on a war.

What would that difference be?

Well, one involves two teams of consenting players involved in a game.

The other involves the brutal deaths and suffering of exponentially more innocent people than those who want to be involved.

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