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Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

timesofisrael.com

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Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#801

Post by peterashford »

waffletower wrote: post #704
kasey_junk wrote: post #676

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’ll not find “the invisible hand” in wealth of nations as a major concept. It was a throw away phrase that wasn’t a central part of his writing.

So many Smith apologists. I don't believe he should be demonized, and perhaps I am guilty of this by mentioning his name and 'satanic' in the same sentence, but he decidedly should not be lionized either. So many are drunk with history and shirk the work to evolve and transcend it. It doesn't matter if Adam Smith had morality and consideration, those are not ideals his writing ultimately bred, what matters are the fr…

Have you actually read The Wealth of Nations?

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#802

Post by dlenski »

senderista wrote: post #580
TheDong wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, but how do you find the person making the threats? Polymarket accounts are more-or-less just a crypto address. Whatsapp accounts are somewhat easier to link to a real identity, but still not hard to at least obscure a bit. The arm of the law struggles to reach across borders, and on the internet, it's quite plausible all those involved are in different jurisdictions.

In this case the threats all seemed to be delivered in Hebrew, so it's plausible that those involved resided in Israel.

Yes, it seems likely.

I assume the author would have noted in his blog post if the Hebrew used in making the threats came across as non-native or non-fluent.

Machine translation is really good these days, but I still think there are some "tells" for a truly vernacular and local command of a language.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#803

Post by margalabargala »

lordnacho wrote: post #758
margalabargala wrote: post #624

As someone generally against gambling, I think there's a fair point to be made that Polymarket and similar sites are not fundamentally different from e.g. sports betting. The issue of bribing/threatening a sports player to throw a game has existed for over a century. It's not a new problem. The only thing special about Polymarket is the expansion of surface area. My preferred solution would be to just ban it all, or…

Banning it sends it underground into the hands of organised crime, which will still have access to modern technology. There's going to be a net loss, but it's probably better to regulate it than have another war on drugs.

Maybe we dedicate specific buildings to gambling, so it's legal, regulated, and localized. Call it a "casino".

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#804

Post by zadikian »

abracadaniel wrote: post #501
ntonozzi wrote: post #440

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps because he is a journalist whose job is to report reality, not avoid threats?

Until they start trying the carrot instead of the stick. Then it becomes a bidding war to determine the "reality"

They can also just do that bidding war in the resolution contract

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#807

Post by echoangle »

LeifCarrotson wrote: post #726
geor9e wrote: post #466

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Surely I am misreading what you mean here. But your comment very much reads like you think "Iran strikes Israel on March 10" at 25% odds is what in fact caused Iran to strike Israel on March 10. I'll search the space of other interpretations in the mean time, but if you could help me out here and clarify…

I was confused as well: After further consideration, I realized that Polymarket only resolves on actual event outcomes insofar as mainstream journalism accurately and credibly reports on those events and their resolution criteria rely on those reports. When it's easier or more reliable to influence reporting around outcomes than the outcomes themselves, bettors will seek to influence the behavior of reporters rather…

> you only need convince the prediction market resolution criteria that something happened.

You don't even need the market to actually resolve, as soon as your rumor becomes credible the market pricing will adjust and you can just sell your shares before resolution.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#808

Post by saalweachter »

margalabargala wrote: post #797
saalweachter wrote: post #776

Earlier quoted context omitted.

... if I post a multi-paragraph long reply on the incentives created by betting on less infant homicide, am I going to find out that you understand perfectly well what the incentives are, and that was the entire point of your comment?

The actions people have taken in accordance with sports betting incentives is everything up to and including murder. The moral ideal the parent commenter associates with sports doesn't make that okay. If you have a point to make about how the age of the person being murdered means it's a categorical difference rather than a difference of degree I'll read it.

Just checking that you knew betting on good outcomes was how you incentivized bad ones.

Eg, to be rid of a turbulent priest, you'd place a bet that Thomas Becket will live to see the year 1171, which is a "good" outcome to bet on happening.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#809

Post by c_o_n_v_e_x »

littlestymaar wrote: post #572
slashdev wrote: post #564

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are lots of bets on Polymarket about when certain politicians cease to be the leader of the country. Trump, Netanyahu, Putin, Mojtaba Khamenei, Zelensky, etc. If they die, those markets are resolved in a predictable way. Death pools already exist, and it's a matter of time before we see an assassination attempt motivated by it.

We're already seeing “insider gambling” from the current administration so I'm pretty convinced we'll see assassinations motivated by polymarket gains alone soon enough.

I suppose the extreme take would be that it becomes a de facto bounty hunting platform

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#810

Post by triceratops »

lordnacho wrote: post #758
margalabargala wrote: post #624

As someone generally against gambling, I think there's a fair point to be made that Polymarket and similar sites are not fundamentally different from e.g. sports betting. The issue of bribing/threatening a sports player to throw a game has existed for over a century. It's not a new problem. The only thing special about Polymarket is the expansion of surface area. My preferred solution would be to just ban it all, or…

Banning it sends it underground into the hands of organised crime, which will still have access to modern technology. There's going to be a net loss, but it's probably better to regulate it than have another war on drugs.

We can ban online betting and betting advertising though. If you want to bet on ponies go to a racetrack. No apps, no phones.
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