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Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

timesofisrael.com

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Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#51

Post by camgunz »

colesantiago wrote: post #12
epolanski wrote: post #9

Prediction markets need to be banned globally ASAP, but it would've helped the article to bring proof of: - the emails - the whatsapp messages - the discord messages - the X messages Mind you, I'm not stating the journalist is lying or overblowing, in fact I suspect this is all more widespread than we think, but it's odd that the journalist puts emphasis on the sources of his information in the case of the missile, y…

Why does everything you don't like need to be banned? Downvoters: I really doubt that you actually successfully 100% banned anything in the history of technology.

This is an argument against all laws, which probably deserves more than a couple sentences.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#54

Post by colesantiago »

mpalmer wrote: post #27
colesantiago wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI is 1000%+ far worse to be fair. Cryptocurrency (although I hate it) you don't have to participate, so no harm done. Prediction Markets you don't have to participate, so no harm done. With AI, you're participating whether you like it or not. Layoffs, Job displacement, etc. There is no opt out here. Once you're replaced with AI, that is it. At least with cryptocurrency and prediction markets you can make money but i…

Do you have a positive defense of betting markets? You're spraying defensive whataboutism all over this thread and lowering the discourse. > Prediction Markets you don't have to participate, so no harm done. Harm: https://www.npr.org/2025/11/13/nx-s1-5605561/college-athlete... Harm: https://militarnyi.com/en/news/in-november-an-isw-analyst-ma... Harm: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/05/prediction-markets-merkley-b...

Why did you send in an article that was completely irrelevant that has nothing to do with prediction markets?

What you're showing me is a death threat, which has existed for time in humans.

Betting markets of all kinds have existed for a long time and haven't been banned.

Banning on particular betting market prediction markets altogether and pushing it underground would make things far worse.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#56

Post by xvector »

TheDong wrote: post #48
bitmasher9 wrote: post #32

I don’t understand how this isn’t an immediate open and shut case for the police, assuming certain facts are verified independently. At the point that you’re making death threats to strangers you should be removed from civil society.

Yeah, but how do you find the person making the threats? Polymarket accounts are more-or-less just a crypto address. Whatsapp accounts are somewhat easier to link to a real identity, but still not hard to at least obscure a bit. The arm of the law struggles to reach across borders, and on the internet, it's quite plausible all those involved are in different jurisdictions.

Polymarket's founder is Shayne Coplan, 27-year old "youngest self-made billionaire" (why do all billionaires seem devoid of ethics?)

A sane system would just throw him in jail until his illegal betting market implements KYC.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#58

Post by lotsofpulp »

Waterluvian wrote: post #43
fzil wrote: post #3

Man the moral degradation is off the charts. Prediction markets are easily the worst things to grace the internet by far and its not even close.

I think the idea behind a prediction market is pretty interesting, especially from an economics dataset point-of-view. And there's probably a lot of fun, harmless things to bet on. eg. "Will Conan lead an extravagent musical number at the Oscars?" But we're in an era of less and less responsible government oversight, so the whole thing naturally gets ruined if there's no guardrails to prevent peoeple without souls or…

>And there's probably a lot of fun, harmless things to bet on. eg. "Will Conan lead an extravagent musical number at the Emmys?"

I cannot fathom what could be fun about that.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#59

Post by echoangle »

epolanski wrote: post #9

Prediction markets need to be banned globally ASAP, but it would've helped the article to bring proof of: - the emails - the whatsapp messages - the discord messages - the X messages Mind you, I'm not stating the journalist is lying or overblowing, in fact I suspect this is all more widespread than we think, but it's odd that the journalist puts emphasis on the sources of his information in the case of the missile, y…

Quoting vs providing screenshots makes exactly 0 difference regarding level of proof. Faking an email or WhatsApp message is about 2 minutes of work.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#60

Post by epolanski »

colesantiago wrote: post #29
epolanski wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. It's not something I don't like, it's something plain illegal in most of the world, including the US under the Dodd-Frank act, which the current executive has decided to not enforce. 2. The reason it is illegal it is beyond obvious: basic economics and game theory explain you how dangerous it is tying real world events with financial incentives.

Illegal or not, trying to ban it won't work. You'll just push it underground and it will get even worse. The cat is out of the bag.

You don't need to "try to ban it", you ban it.

If your argument is "people are going to bet and influence world events on the dark web", the argument ignores economics.

The whole point is that the wrong financial incentives exist, the dark web does not provide them, it's hard to access and liquidity is small.

E.g. Trump insiders are unlikely to "tor their iran/venezuela predictions in Monero" and try to influence the events at the same time, let alone how complex would such a system be.

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