The gambling market is really bringing out the worst of us.
B-b-but futarchy and unbiased decisionmaking means well-calibrated markets could be a net good for society!! /hj
Reply of the year. I'm not sure if I'm supposed to laugh or cry.
Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story
91–100 of 1001 posts
Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story
#92Earlier quoted context omitted.
Do you have a positive defense of betting markets? You're spraying defensive whataboutism all over this thread and lowering the discourse. > Prediction Markets you don't have to participate, so no harm done. Harm: https://www.npr.org/2025/11/13/nx-s1-5605561/college-athlete... Harm: https://militarnyi.com/en/news/in-november-an-isw-analyst-ma... Harm: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/05/prediction-markets-merkley-b...
Why did you send in an article that was completely irrelevant that has nothing to do with prediction markets? What you're showing me is a death threat, which has existed for time in humans. Betting markets of all kinds have existed for a long time and haven't been banned. Banning on particular betting market prediction markets altogether and pushing it underground would make things far worse.
Many kinds of betting markets are or were banned all over the world. The sky didn’t fall, and what underground markets existed didn’t lead to huge gang wars or whatever.
Given that the article is discussing some of the bad behavior typically associated with dark markets (death threats, extortion, fixing) happening in the light, what makes you think that banning them would make things worse?
Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story
#93Earlier quoted context omitted.
Polymarket's founder is Shayne Coplan, 27-year old "youngest self-made billionaire" (why do all billionaires seem devoid of ethics?) A sane system would just throw him in jail until his illegal betting market implements KYC.
yea just throw the CEO of microsoft in jail too because illegal transactions are set via Xbox live.
unironically yes, I think with the huge payday they get for being responsible for Microsoft they should also carry an equivalent responsibility when they cause social harms. Billionaires have gotten way too comfortable.
Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story
#94An additional complication is that both Iran and Israel are engaging in heavy censorship of news articles, obstensively to prevent the opposing side from getting intelligence/feedback on their missile strikes/other activities, but it is also definitely to control the narrative:
https://www.972mag.com/israel-media-censorship-iran-war/
This could definitely affect key polymarket bets in the near term. I expect over the long term the truth will come out, but in the near term, it could be obscured.
Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story
#95So, just to point it out: people don't get violent and criminal magically because they made a bet. They get violent and criminal to backstop a bet they can't cover . The story here isn't that horrible criminals are using Polymarket. It's that Polymarket bettors are overleveraged, and at the margin some of them turn to crime to avoid losing their shirts. We've all been looking around for the trigger for the market-cra…
This argument is sophistry, the nature of gambling is that gamblers over-leverage themselves compulsively.
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Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story
#96Yep, far worse than cryptocurrency
Cryptocurrency itself was designed to enable crime. Why else would one want an end-run around governments and law-enforcement, unless one were a criminal wanting to prey on others risk-free?
Not all governments are good, trustworthy or even exist at all. For people in an oppressed or even full out broken society, being this level of criminal is acceptable.
But yes, something used to work around bad governments, will also be used against good governments. Every legit tool can be also abused.
Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story
#97Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think the idea behind a prediction market is pretty interesting, especially from an economics dataset point-of-view. And there's probably a lot of fun, harmless things to bet on. eg. "Will Conan lead an extravagent musical number at the Oscars?" But we're in an era of less and less responsible government oversight, so the whole thing naturally gets ruined if there's no guardrails to prevent peoeple without souls or…
The insiders ruin a market like this. Unlike in sports/stocks there are no rules / punishment for insider trading.
If some specific prediction market can easily be manipulated by someone with insider knowledge, you better should not gamble in it.
Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story
#98Earlier quoted context omitted.
>And there's probably a lot of fun, harmless things to bet on. eg. "Will Conan lead an extravagent musical number at the Emmys?" I cannot fathom what could be fun about that.
I mean, what's fun about my specific example? Guaranteed money.
By that definition all terrible aspects of the concept are the same as the fun.
Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story
#99Man the moral degradation is off the charts. Prediction markets are easily the worst things to grace the internet by far and its not even close.
I’d say that propaganda is much worse and more harmful and it’s not even close. Nowadays like 50% of population believes that covid vaccines are harmful because of bullshit they read on the internet. Prediction market is not even in top 100 harmful things related to internet in my opinion.
Or from the death of family and friends.
Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story
#100Per HN policy, stop editorializing the headlines.
Here's the actual headline:
> Gamblers trying to win a bet on Polymarket are vowing to kill me if I don’t rewrite an Iran missile story