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Something Big Is Happening

shumer.dev

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Re: Something Big Is Happening

#51

Post by assimpleaspossi »

pockybum522 wrote: post #22

Every once in a while, I try LLMs just to see how improvement is going. Yesterday I had to explain to Opus what the color white is and what "bottom right" means after it declared problems fixed, repeatedly, that a literal preschooler would have been able to tell were absolutely unchanged from the original problem description. I am still waiting for this world of redundant programmers I've been hearing about for years…

I use FreeBSD. When talking to LLMs, they insist on giving me code in bash. Bash is not native to FreeBSD (though you can get it and use it). I correct them, and of course they apologize, but another day continue to use bash in other questions.

Re: Something Big Is Happening

#52

Post by rurihoshino »

So apparently according to Axios this blog post has gone "mega viral" and their article concludes by stating affirmatively that the "AI" revolution is here now. It's been shared by a number of normally trusted sources; my sister linked it to me because she saw Medi Hassan share it with a note that it's the most important thing you'll read in like forever.

To me it reads exactly like every other blog post of it's genre. It substitutes subjective personal experience for any kind of externally verifiable fact, makes appeals to anonymous authorities that always seem to support the author's conclusion, uses language designed to induce a sense of fear if not outright panic in the reader, and at no point addresses the fundamental reality of "AI's" catastrophic unprofitability. Not to mention how gross it feels to read the author's slobbering all over Amodei as some kind of model for good corporate behavior.

Fundamentally my real problem with it is that the author believes that if we make LLMs good enough at coding, they will then become capable of doing all other knowledge work to a high enough standard that they will replace human knowledge workers. That is such a breathtaking example of a Leap to Conclusion that if we could harness it's energy we could start sending spaceships directly to other star systems.

Re: Something Big Is Happening

#53

Post by jakobnissen »

mattlangston wrote: post #47

PhD physicist (Stanford/SLAC), Research Software Engineer doing low-level systems work in C/C++ and LLM research. Not a founder or investor — just a practitioner. One data point for this thread: the jump from Opus 4.5 to 4.6 is not linear. The minor version number is misleading. In my daily work the capability difference is the largest single-model jump I've experienced, and I don't say that casually — I spent my car…

If you use Claude Code, it will take you half a day to learn to use Codex, and like 30 minutes to start being productive in it. The switching cost is almost zero. Just go test out GPT 5.3, there is no reason not to

Re: Something Big Is Happening

#54

Post by opem »

karmakurtisaani wrote: post #15
psiszj wrote: post #11

What’s the point in using these tools if they’re gonna replace us in a few years? It’s weird the author says that but then his conclusion is basically “go spend money on stuff I’m invested in”. Covid comparison is apt. I remember being insanely scared in Jan 2020 when those videos of Chinese people dropping dead were coming out (and being shamed by most of my peers etc). Few months later it was starting to become obv…

> What’s the point in using these tools if they’re gonna replace us in a few years? Increase shareholder value in the short term.

> > What’s the point in using these tools if they’re gonna replace us in a few years?

> Increase shareholder value in the short term.

everytime I see this as the ultimate conclusion for all of these kind of hype posts

Re: Something Big Is Happening

#55

Post by moojacob »

For reference the author's (Matt Shumer) AI business (hyperwrite ai) is a hundred small LLM wrappers that do things like:

- "transform complex topics into easy-to-understand explanations."

- "edit and transform images using simple text descriptions."

- "summarizes a research article, and answers specific questions about it."

You can see all of them here: https://www.hyperwriteai.com/aitools.

Hyperwrite does also have a markdown editor with an ai copilot sidebar that seems a little more substantial: https://www.hyperwriteai.com/ai-document-editor.

I don't know enough to disprove Matt, but I don't know why anyone should listen to him. There are far smarter people who have come up with similar conclusions.

Re: Something Big Is Happening

#56

Post by opem »

assimpleaspossi wrote: post #51
pockybum522 wrote: post #22

Every once in a while, I try LLMs just to see how improvement is going. Yesterday I had to explain to Opus what the color white is and what "bottom right" means after it declared problems fixed, repeatedly, that a literal preschooler would have been able to tell were absolutely unchanged from the original problem description. I am still waiting for this world of redundant programmers I've been hearing about for years…

I use FreeBSD. When talking to LLMs, they insist on giving me code in bash. Bash is not native to FreeBSD (though you can get it and use it). I correct them, and of course they apologize, but another day continue to use bash in other questions.

Considering the rate of improvement of these LLMs, wait for a month or two and then you may not even need an os, let alone some obsecure piece of software (shell).

Re: Something Big Is Happening

#57

Post by akomtu »

Protect the human culture while you can. His advice to embrace AI in order to survive what's coming is naive. When Europeans came to native Americans, they brought their technology, their way of thinking and erased the native culture in a matter of years. The weak were poisoned with alcohol, the strong were killed and the few survivors were sent to reservations. Would it be possible to survive by embracing the alien culture? Don't fool yourself.

Re: Something Big Is Happening

#58

Post by bigstrat2003 »

hbjkhgkytfkytv wrote: post #13

[flagged]

> AI models are as shitty as they were in 2023.

Yep! They still remain stupid (in the intelligence sense, not the pejorative sense) tools which have no practical value to anyone with decent skills. But the people who have a financial interest in hype are still trying to convince everyone "it's totally different now bro, use the latest model bro". It's so tiresome.

Re: Something Big Is Happening

#59

Post by unethical_ban »

moojacob wrote: post #55

For reference the author's (Matt Shumer) AI business (hyperwrite ai) is a hundred small LLM wrappers that do things like: - "transform complex topics into easy-to-understand explanations." - "edit and transform images using simple text descriptions." - "summarizes a research article, and answers specific questions about it." You can see all of them here: https://www.hyperwriteai.com/aitools . Hyperwrite does also hav…

Well, I did read it, I did listen to him. Assuming he isn't lying about his anecdotal evidence, he did a very good job opening my eyes to just how fast the AI models are moving and how the disruption can and likely will hit the public before they realize it.

Re: Something Big Is Happening

#60

Post by juanani »

opem wrote: post #56
assimpleaspossi wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I use FreeBSD. When talking to LLMs, they insist on giving me code in bash. Bash is not native to FreeBSD (though you can get it and use it). I correct them, and of course they apologize, but another day continue to use bash in other questions.

Considering the rate of improvement of these LLMs, wait for a month or two and then you may not even need an os, let alone some obsecure piece of software (shell).

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