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Something Big Is Happening

shumer.dev

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Re: Something Big Is Happening

#11

Post by psiszj »

What’s the point in using these tools if they’re gonna replace us in a few years? It’s weird the author says that but then his conclusion is basically “go spend money on stuff I’m invested in”.

Covid comparison is apt. I remember being insanely scared in Jan 2020 when those videos of Chinese people dropping dead were coming out (and being shamed by most of my peers etc). Few months later it was starting to become obvious it was really only a major risk if you were old or infirm, but the rest of the world had took awhile to catch up.

AI’s big and gonna change stuff - and like COVID probably for the worse - but we’re in a poorly understood hype cycle right now.

Re: Something Big Is Happening

#12

Post by psiszj »

thinkingkong wrote: post #9

Management is going to quickly start bisecting human engineers along lines of maximalists and minimalists. The minimalists will all be let go. A few bad things will happen. A few systems will strain under the pressure but itll be “worth it” in the same way that its cheaper to pay lawsuits than do a recall of a plane. We arent innovating in other areas that might soften the blow. We dont have good support systems, soc…

If what the author says is true, there’s no point in management either.

Re: Something Big Is Happening

#14

Post by acjohnson55 »

I am not having the exact same experience as the author--Opus 4.6 and Codex 5.3 seem more incremental to me than what he is describing--but if we're on an exponential curve, the difference is a rounding error.

4 months ago, I tried to build an application mostly vibe-coded. I got impressively far for what I thought was possible, but it bogged down. This past weekend, my friend had OpenClaw build an application of similar complexity in a weekend. The difference is vast.

At work, I wouldn't say I'm one-shotting tasks, but the first shot is doing what used to be a week's work in about an hour, and then the next few hours are polish. Most of the delay in the polish phase is due to the speed of the tooling (e.g. feature branch environment spin up and CI) and the human review at the end of the process.

The side effects people report of lower quality code hitting review are real, but I think that is a matter of training, process and work harness. I see no reason that won't significantly improve.

As I said in another thread a couple days ago, AI is the first technology where everyone is literally having a different experience. Even within my company, there are divergent experiences. But I think we're in world where very soon, companies will be demanding their engineering departments converge to the lived experience of the people who are seeing something like the author. And if they can find people who can actuate that reality, the folks who can't are going to see their options contract precipitously.

Re: Something Big Is Happening

#15

Post by karmakurtisaani »

psiszj wrote: post #11

What’s the point in using these tools if they’re gonna replace us in a few years? It’s weird the author says that but then his conclusion is basically “go spend money on stuff I’m invested in”. Covid comparison is apt. I remember being insanely scared in Jan 2020 when those videos of Chinese people dropping dead were coming out (and being shamed by most of my peers etc). Few months later it was starting to become obv…

> What’s the point in using these tools if they’re gonna replace us in a few years?

Increase shareholder value in the short term.

Re: Something Big Is Happening

#16

Post by karmakurtisaani »

anthonj wrote: post #10

I asked ai to summarise this blog post. Jokes aside it should be noted that the author is a founder and ceo of an AI company, not to mention an active investor in the sector. (All disclosed in his "about" page)

How convenient that the AI apocalypse is happening RIGHT NOW, as the investors are more and more worried about an AI bubble. Good timing, I suppose.

Re: Something Big Is Happening

#17

Post by waku888 »

acjohnson55 wrote: post #14

I am not having the exact same experience as the author--Opus 4.6 and Codex 5.3 seem more incremental to me than what he is describing--but if we're on an exponential curve, the difference is a rounding error. 4 months ago, I tried to build an application mostly vibe-coded. I got impressively far for what I thought was possible, but it bogged down. This past weekend, my friend had OpenClaw build an application of sim…

> But I think we're in world where very soon, companies will be demanding their engineering departments converge to the lived experience of the people who are seeing something like the author.

We already live in that world. It's called "Hey Siri", "Hey Google", and "Alexa". It seems that no amount of executive tantrum has caused any of these tools to give a convergent experience.

Re: Something Big Is Happening

#18

Post by mediaeater »

This is a solid assessment of whats here and what is in front of us. Broad brush stroke dismissals aside, we are here. Evolve or Perish. AI is like unchecked fire, but make no mistake fire is very powerful once it was harnessed. AI leans more supplemental vs incremental than prior major tech shifts and that's worth noting. It will be the same for other sectors and verticals over time. The markets view software eats the world is being eaten by new software.

Re: Something Big Is Happening

#19

Post by aero9188 »

> You can describe an app to AI and have a working version in an hour. I'm not exaggerating. I do this regularly. If you've always wanted to write a book but couldn't find the time or struggled with the writing, you can work with AI to get it done.

Interesting. So you regularly make new apps in 1 hour each.

How is that the same as...writing a book? Did you mean write several short stories? Or are we talking non-fiction?

Re: Something Big Is Happening

#20

Post by mediaeater »

acjohnson55 wrote: post #14

I am not having the exact same experience as the author--Opus 4.6 and Codex 5.3 seem more incremental to me than what he is describing--but if we're on an exponential curve, the difference is a rounding error. 4 months ago, I tried to build an application mostly vibe-coded. I got impressively far for what I thought was possible, but it bogged down. This past weekend, my friend had OpenClaw build an application of sim…

Yes, for me --moved past AI coding accelerating you to 80-90% then living in the valley of infinite tweaks. This past month with with right thinking working with say Opus 4.6 has moved past that blocker.
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