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Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

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Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#91

Post by mschuster91 »

wolvoleo wrote: post #3

I do really hope the AI bubble will collapse soon. The sooner it blows the less damage it will do. And hopefully we can go back to doing real work without all these leadership guys breathing down our necks to see if we are doing enough of this AI all their shareholders want us to be involved in. It will suck even for us in europe due to shortsighted pension funds having invested in AI as well. But we'll just have to…

> It will suck even for us in europe due to shortsighted pension funds having invested in AI as well.

Only to a very small degree and systems like Germany THANK GOD do not have any AI exposure at all.

The real problem is that when the US sniffs, Europe gets a full blown cough. We are way too dependent on the US, we have seen that 2007ff, and we haven't changed a single darn thing.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#92

Post by RobotToaster »

scotty79 wrote: post #5
wolvoleo wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China probably. No I don't think it is better but at least their leadership is actually sane. Evil, but sane and predictable.

Even the evil adjective starts to look debatable in contrast to what current hegemony is doing on its way down. Apparently their worst offence so far was calmly outgrowing and out competing their peers while benefiting global consumers with he fruits of organized labor of their own society.

Maoist protracted people's war has traditionally relied on being less of an asshole to the peasants than the enemy.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#93

Post by johnnyanmac »

nodesocket wrote: post #71

I know HN always has its fair share of doomers, and generally the HN communities track record anecdotally regarding finance and the market is frankly terrible. Tesla (stock price wrong), Bitcoin (wrong), AI a huge dot com like bubble (wrong in my opinion - TBD though). I’m optimistic on the US. We could realistically print a 5 handle GDP, oil at rock bottom prices, lower federal income taxes this year. As far as Gold…

> We could realistically print a 5 handle GDP, oil at rock bottom prices, lower federal income taxes this year.

Ignoring everything else in terms of oredictions: the US simply doesn't have that spending buffer anymore to really outspend yet another crash. Its at what, 37 trillion right now? And it's only rising more and more by the month.

The only thing worse than a crash would be the US defaulting on that. And then we'd be screwed in ways that we don't recover from in any of our lifetimes. Nearly a century of trust and soft power completely down the drain.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#94

Post by teiferer »

johnnyanmac wrote: post #51
teiferer wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Skill. Knowledge. At your age, your biggest assert is your future earnings potential. The more employable you are, the better you will make iduring and after a downturn. In fact, the highest skill folks tend to even profit from hiccups in the economy.

Are the ones newer to the workforce just screwed or is there a way out? Kinda sucks that all this went down around 6-7 years into my tenure and it's just been a few years of scraping together freelance + portfolio projects to try and climb out of tbis rut. (This might sadly be rhetorical given what I hear of '08, but perhaps there are new channels open to take advantage of. Or at least old channels to raise awareness…

6-7 years of experience make you prime material for employment in the sw industry. Experience but not too expensive/entitled yet.

Have you considered applying?

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#95

Post by RobotToaster »

card_zero wrote: post #86
scotty79 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even the evil adjective starts to look debatable in contrast to what current hegemony is doing on its way down. Apparently their worst offence so far was calmly outgrowing and out competing their peers while benefiting global consumers with he fruits of organized labor of their own society.

Stop getting Chinese territory under your fishing boats! Leave immediately for correct and healthy harmony! Fires water cannon

As opposed to America who uses cruise missiles on fishing boats in a different continent?

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#96

Post by drstewart »

johnnyanmac wrote: post #85
pembrook wrote: post #74

Some advice for those who are young: If every idiot (I'm including myself in this) on HN/Reddit/Youtube/Tiktok/mainstream news/etc. thinks we're in a bubble and is crazy pessimistic and thinks economic collapse is near...it means we're not actually in a bubble. When the bitter, frustrated pessimists on HN shift their tone to being neutral or even mildly optimistic, then I will start worrying. Because that will mean t…

>When the bitter, frustrated pessimists on HN shift their tone to being neutral or even mildly optimistic, then I will start worrying. That seems to have happened around 2023 or so as people chose to laud over AI instead of understanding the underpinnings of society coming undone in real time. So, should I be worried?

The hourly "AI is a bubble" threads doesn't scream optimistic to me.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#97

Post by torginus »

singularity2001 wrote: post #63

Maybe simultaneous with the crash of the Chinese economy, which was predicted for 40 years now

I don't understand why people expect the Chinese economy to crash - they can basically make everything, a lot of which is internationally competitive, they can trade for the resources they don't have with the goods that they do - with basically the whole world dependent on them. They have a huge internal base of poor people, and lifting them to a middle class level will alone fuel domestic demand for years to come.

Their biggest problem seems to be they're too good at building stuff, whenever a new category of product pops up, they quickly build up both volume and drive down prices through competition so that they saturate their internal markets (see: housing, EVs)

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#98

Post by benrutter »

captain_coffee wrote: post #6

Some sort of an AI crash / bubble bursting is expected to be honest - now if that will take the rest of the US economy as well.... debatable. Any strong opinions on this?

I'm not an expert, my knowledge is just from reading around a lot, but I think there's some stats that would suggest the US is particularly exposed:

- At points, AI investment has actually seen more spending that US consumer spending[0], there's some debate on this[1] but if true, that leads to a narrative of the US being 'propped up' by AI investment.

- US GDP growth was strong last year, but behind quite a lot of other similar countries like the UK, Germany and Japan, which doesn't suggest a comparatively strong economy.

- The US is actively increasing it's borrowing substantially (Big Beautiful Bill) while lowering it's currencies value through trade wars and unpredictability (see bond market). That reduces its ability to use its wealth to borrow its way out of a financial crash (like with the 2008 crash, or Covid).

This could be a little overblown and is hard to tell, the US is definitely an extremely wealthy country, even if its less wealthy comparatively that a few years prior.

[0] https://fortune.com/2025/08/06/data-center-artificial-intell...

[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/26/ai-wasnt-the-biggest-engine-...

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#99

Post by Noaidi »

repelsteeltje wrote: post #38
Noaidi wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gold and silver mining stocks. And International ETF funds. It looks like the United States will be going through the depression alone.

Was thinking the same, but why would everyone be more interested in gold an silver in a couple of months than they are right now? Sure it beats holding dollars of stocks. But, keeping both feet on the ground, I'm tempted to think that if the economy collapses I'd not be very interested in buying precious metals. I'd be looking for food, a roof to live under and safety.

You can invest in silver mining stocks, and be concerned about food at the same time. One is for long-term survival. The other is for short term survival. You can think of things like toilet paper and razors as bartering tools or actual new money, and the golden silver investments as objection of the current money you have right now.

My grandfather lives in a great depression in Manhattan. He told me some crazy stories, but you know what most people made it through. I think this time our system is more fragile, but I have no doubt that human survival is much stronger than me think as well as human socialism.

For instance, I am homeless living with schizoaffective disorder and I’m not worried so why should you be?

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#100

Post by Noaidi »

teiferer wrote: post #42
Noaidi wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gold and silver mining stocks. And International ETF funds. It looks like the United States will be going through the depression alone.

Buy high, sell low. Excellent result when you follow the masses, especially when being a little late.

Where was I giving that advice? Gold and silver mining stocks are extremely low compared to the price of gold and silver buying mining socks right now is buying low.
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