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Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

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Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#71

Post by nodesocket »

I know HN always has its fair share of doomers, and generally the HN communities track record anecdotally regarding finance and the market is frankly terrible. Tesla (stock price wrong), Bitcoin (wrong), AI a huge dot com like bubble (wrong in my opinion - TBD though).

I’m optimistic on the US. We could realistically print a 5 handle GDP, oil at rock bottom prices, lower federal income taxes this year. As far as Gold and Silver I just see it being propped up by speculators. Silver spot is down 15% this mornings and gold down 8%.

I predict double digit gains in the S&P by end of year and strong financial conditions with mag 7 continuing their lead. Tesla also will be a big winner.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#72

Post by drstewart »

tock wrote: post #69

Stocks might go down if AI doesn't bring in enough revenue. The real risk seems to be currency depreciation though. The USD is already down 15% this year compared to the Euro. I'm worried about what the next FED chair appointee will do. JPow has stuck to his principles so far.

>what the next FED chair appointee will do

What do you think he will do, given he's one of 12 votes?

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#73

Post by scotty79 »

Smaug123 wrote: post #47
scotty79 wrote: post #19

Where it's gonna crash to? Where is going the capital move to when everythings going up? (except crypto apparently)

Could you clarify the question? When everything's going up, it's definitionally not a crash; do you mean something like "where are people going to flee to now/soon, in anticipation of a crash, given how buoyant everything is"?

That exodus is what crash is. Yes. My question is where "they" are going flee to in anticipation of the crash to actually make the crash happen.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#74

Post by pembrook »

Some advice for those who are young:

If every idiot (I'm including myself in this) on HN/Reddit/Youtube/Tiktok/mainstream news/etc. thinks we're in a bubble and is crazy pessimistic and thinks economic collapse is near...it means we're not actually in a bubble.

When the bitter, frustrated pessimists on HN shift their tone to being neutral or even mildly optimistic, then I will start worrying. Because that will mean the general public must be reaching 1999 levels of euphoria for a hint of optimism to show up here.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#75

Post by benrutter »

SchwKatze wrote: post #8

I'm kinda new into economy crashes, was a kid in 2008, is there a way to protect of it?

There's a common consensus in economics that bubbles are really hard to predict, and even some argument that they don't actually really exist. Great paper came out recently called "Bubbled for Farma"[0] which looks at predictability for bubbles and finds some indicators but no sure fire thing.

That sort of rules out an easy or known way to predict and avoid bubbles. That said, it's worth noting our current historic period marked by being post financialisation (taking out a bunch of investment regulation) of markets in the 80s exhibits a lot more economic crashes (the real reason we should car about bubbles) than most of history (although most of history also does not exhibit any economic growth, so be careful what you wish for).

In particular, the period between around 1930-1975 showed extremely high growth with almost no bubbles or market crashes[1].

So my semi-knowledgeable but definitely not expert view is that: - Bubbles and crashes are not easy to predict, and therefore avoid - That said, our existing market rules have effects on the number of crashes/bubbles we see (but there's debate around whether you actually would want an economy with less crashes/bubbles if that meant left growth)

[0] https://www.hbs.edu/ris/Publication%20Files/Bubbles%20for%20...

[1] You can find this discussed a bunch of places but Ha-Joon Chang's Economics: The User's Guide talks about this very fluently.

Edit: I think your question might actually have just been about personal protection again bubbles, rather than protecting the economy as a whole. In which case, having margin in your spending so you'd be able to live if things were some portion more expensive against your earnings is probably the only sane suggestion.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#76

Post by tock »

drstewart wrote: post #72
tock wrote: post #69

Stocks might go down if AI doesn't bring in enough revenue. The real risk seems to be currency depreciation though. The USD is already down 15% this year compared to the Euro. I'm worried about what the next FED chair appointee will do. JPow has stuck to his principles so far.

>what the next FED chair appointee will do What do you think he will do, given he's one of 12 votes?

The admin wants to cut rates drastically. But the FED policymakers just voted 10-2 to not cut rates. So I worry the admin will try something crazy to force a cut.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#77

Post by lm28469 »

michaelsshaw wrote: post #44
bborud wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China seems to be the only candidate. But whatever happens it won’t be in the same way as before. As for whether it is better for everyone, that question became a lot harder in just the last year. Who is «everyone»? And what do we mean by «better»? With the US wanting to annex territory from its NATO allies, and engaging in extortionate tariffs, it is harder to argue that the US is good for Europe. Which is why Europ…

I disagree that something good for China is necessarily bad for the rest of the world, which you seem to imply here includes only Europe. China alone has a higher population than Europe and the USA combined. I'd say that even if things got worse for Europe, to humanity it still constitutes a net benefit. Lives aren't of less value just because they're in a (gasp) communist country.

> communist country

New things need new words to describe them, I know people love to call bad guys "nazis" or "communists" and that everyone seems stuck with 1939 lingo but come one. 1950s china isn't 1980s china which isn't 2026 china, yet they're all ""communists""

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#78

Post by scotty79 »

bilekas wrote: post #56
scotty79 wrote: post #19

Where it's gonna crash to? Where is going the capital move to when everythings going up? (except crypto apparently)

> Where it's gonna crash to? You know that the reason things bubble and burst is because speculation outpaces reality at too high a rate, ie : too much "capital" is make up of hopes and dreams. When reality hits and the numbers make sense, all that hope and dreams go pop. Scotty doesn't know!

There is no reality in the market. All prices are speculation, always. If there was any reality involved things like Tesla would crash 3 times already. My question is where the spekulants are going to escape to. I don't think it can be even dollar this time because in this crash dollar most likely will go away as the global currency and the inflation will be devastating.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#79

Post by scotty79 »

Buxato wrote: post #31
scotty79 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even the evil adjective starts to look debatable in contrast to what current hegemony is doing on its way down. Apparently their worst offence so far was calmly outgrowing and out competing their peers while benefiting global consumers with he fruits of organized labor of their own society.

If you think that's the worst offence then you should check the recent and past news more often.

What was the most grusome Chinese offence you learned about form the news recently?

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#80

Post by johnnyanmac »

captain_coffee wrote: post #6

Some sort of an AI crash / bubble bursting is expected to be honest - now if that will take the rest of the US economy as well.... debatable. Any strong opinions on this?

> now if that will take the rest of the US economy as well.... debatable.

In the grand scheme of GDP, the US hasn't done much growth in anhtjjg else this decade, all while massively increasing spending to prevent post COVID recessions.

It certainly doesn't look good. But this was being setup for 30 years as we outsourced our strong manufacturing wing to make the top brass richer in the short run. So I do think the house of cards falls if AI does.

The sad part is that we may have been able to whether the storm under the right leadership. But that sure isn't the leadership in the White House right now.

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