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Tesla ending Models S and X production

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Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#341

The elephant Tesla mocked has run, and stomped over them. Now there comes the pivot. While "The old auto establishment" is not a benevolent structure, they proved that experience is something earned with time and doing things. Corporate knowledge and memory is real, and you can't beat it with brute force. They started the change, but they failed to keep up with the pace. Also hubris, greed and monies.

I don't really get this take... not when Tesla is by a wide mile the world's most valuable automaker. How does Tesla ending production of the S and X equate to the old auto establishment "stomping over them"?

Worth related statistics doesn't mean anything in the realm of hard engineering. I completely look from the point of "what the companies are doing tech-wise".

When Tesla came about, they were distinctively different. A different chassis, a different weight distribution, completely different dynamics. Since they started with a blank slate, their cars were greenfield projects, and they correctly took note of the pitfalls, and avoided them.

On the other hand, avoiding past pitfalls or remedying them doesn't make you immune from the future ones, and doesn't mean the other companies can't learn, too. This is where they made the mistake.

They overpromised (esp. with the Autopilot thingy) and underdelivered massively on that front, and while they "made" the software-defined-vehicle, they underestimated the problems and behaved like the problems they face are as simple as configuring a web service right. This is what slowly broke them. They also underestimated hardware problems of the car (like using consumer grade parts in the critical parts of the hardware. Remember wearing down flash chips and bricking cars?)

Because while car is software defined now, it's also an "industrial system". It has to be robust. It has to be reliable, idiot-proof even. Playing fast and loose with these things allowed automakers to catch them, maybe slowly but surely.

Because, "the old automakers" has gone through a lot of blood, sweat and tears (both figuratively and literally), and know what to do and what not to do. They can anticipate pitfalls better then a "newbie" carmaker. They shuddered, sputtered, hesitated, but they are in the move now. They will evolve this more slowly, but in a more reliable and safer way. They won't play that fast, but the products will be more refined. They won't skimp on radars because someone doesn't believe in them, for example.

Not everything is numbers, valuations and great expansions which look good on quarterlies, news, politics, and populists. Sometimes the slow and steads wins, and it goes for longer.

Physics and engineering doesn't care for valuations. They only care about natural laws.

This is what I'm seeing here.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electric cars, maybe. Tesla is valued much larger than the rest of the auto industry combined though. Humanoid robots? Ain’t nobody made the business case for that. It is pure vibes.

Tesla is valued at more than the auto industry because they are doing more than the entire auto industry. Honda is going to come out with a new Civic next year. It's going to look like the old Civic. Tesla is trying to create self driving taxis to make the rest of the auto industry obsolete. If you think that can happen, they should be worth more than the rest of the industry.

It can happen. Its unlikely Tesla will catch up to Waymo any time soon though. Yet valuation for Tesla (relative to how much money they are making) is massively higher than Google’s. Which would make very little sense following this logic?

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#343
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post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk would love to be selling several billion dollars per year of model S/X sales, the issue is they aren’t that competitive with other cars in the luxury segment thus the falling sales numbers. Tesla’s doesn’t really have a complex strategy at this point, they are getting squeezed out of the high end by legacy automakers where their lower cost batteries don’t matter as much. They are absolutely fucked on the low end…

What's their competition on the high end? Porsche, Cadillac? Do Rivian or Genesis count?

If they are eating into model X or S sales it obviously counts here.

Porsche, Audi, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Genesis, and Cadillac are all competitive in different ways. Stat wise someone buying the electric G-Wagon is making a poor decision, but swagger is a selling point which very much costs Tesla sales.

Cadillac’s approach of a huge dumb battery powering a huge heavy vehicle may not be ideal for the average use case, but customers are going to prioritize different things. One SUV just can’t be the best solution to every lifestyle.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#344
Elon should be sending robots to the Moon, Mars and the Asteroid Belt. That would make much more sense.

Setup automated low gravity refueling depots. Then automated mining of the solar system will scale up as it more than pays for itself. And as with Starlink, SpaceX synergy would give him a serious advantage.

Much faster to achieve (despite the challenges), less expensive, and more profitable than a human Mars colony which would burn money without return for decades.

(Regardless of wishful thinking, civilizations coming backup is a second substrate adapted to the rest of the solar system, not a colony suffering truly miserable conditions. Although I am all for human exploration, which would also be easier and cheaper on the back of expanding automated infrastructure.)

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We "just" need to figure out the terraforming problem then we can all move to Mars and be interplanetary explorers. Imagine how cool it would be to have corporate leaders who had vision--environmentally friendly automobiles, cheap space travel, etc.--without the clammy snake oil grifter bullshit. Reality is cool AF . The things that are actually achievable are amazing. We don't need to spout nonsense to do great thin…

The Mars obsession absolutely blows me away. Like, he's obviously read KSR's Red Mars. He's obviously aware of the conditions out there. Mars is a fuckin' bummer . It is absolutely hostile to human life. Sure, we'll land people there, and maybe set up some sort of station if we really want to throw a few trillion dollars away from actual problems here on earth... but it's not going to be pleasant. Not anytime, ever.…

Doing such seemingly impossible things have been what humans have been doing. The tech developed for Mars would definitely influence our Earth society. Hard to say how and when, but it has been historically the case. I think instead of spending billions on election influence campaign, spending that on Mars has a better impact to society.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#346
post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you expect the demand for Tesla's robotaxis to be high? I don't see it.

If they actually worked right now, the demand would be high. Demand is certainly high for Waymos. Even if they worked worse than a Waymo I think the demand would still be very high. But it's hard to tell if (or when) it will work well enough to actually be a real product.

that's why I said "Tesla's robotaxis".

They have not proven they are waymo level or near it, or that they will ever be there given the lack of lidar.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#347
post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electric cars, maybe. Tesla is valued much larger than the rest of the auto industry combined though. Humanoid robots? Ain’t nobody made the business case for that. It is pure vibes.

Are you seriously saying there is no business case for humanoid robots?

Maybe there is. But isn’t Tesla way, way behind Hyundai at this? It’s not even close? Yet Hyundai’s stock is still very cheap..

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk's goal all along was to get away from boutique production. He wants to sell millions of cheaper cars, not thousands of cars for wealthy people. Not sure it's going to work out. Without some big jumps in battery tech, EVs are going to be difficult to sell without subsidies.

> Musk's goal all along was to get away from boutique production. He wants to sell millions of cheaper cars, not thousands of cars for wealthy people. So the literal opposite of the Cybertruck, which was released less than a year ago.

Not to mention the Roadster

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#349
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This is sad in that I was serious about finally getting one in two to three years (We have two Model 3 LRs already), but is fantastic in that no other car interests me and I now don't have this hyper materialistic goal distracting me. If Tesla completely exits automotive and decides to license their FSD tech (or someone else catches up), then I'll probably just get whatever the equivalent of a Bolt is then with that…

Wait, an S? Why? I've got a 3 LR too and.... I just can't say anything about the extraordinarily long-in-the-tooth S excites me. Usually something is desirable when it's new, then the desirability fades as the product ages and other new, hot things come onto the market. Don't get me wrong, I don't generally lust after EVs, but I am looking forward to the R3X....

Bigger battery, larger center console and the cabin is slightly more premium. Not $76k premium but moreso than the 3. I also really like the yoke.

However, the 3 is lighter, has better headlight clusters, the light accent inside of the cabin (that I thought the S was getting, but I guess not), and a marginally better sound system.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk's goal all along was to get away from boutique production. He wants to sell millions of cheaper cars, not thousands of cars for wealthy people. Not sure it's going to work out. Without some big jumps in battery tech, EVs are going to be difficult to sell without subsidies.

And yet Chinese EV's are flying out of their factories, well, a few are - most are self driving out to the shipping yards. This despite the 2025 support by the Chinese state for the Chines EV industry now being almost nothing. By contrast, defenders of China could point out that the data show that subsidies as a percentage of total sales have declined substantially, from over 40% in the early years to only 11.5% in 2…

You should also factor in lax human rights enforcement in China (which acts like a subsidy essentially in effect and is not factored in these calculations):

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/10/human-rights-...

BYD is at the bottom of the list (worst for human rights). Tesla is second at the top (better for human rights).

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