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Tesla ending Models S and X production

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Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#311

Post by danny_codes »

vtail wrote: post #162

"HN is dying" is a cliche, I know, but I seriously want to bookmark this thread to revisit it in 10 years - I'm sure it will age even better than (in)famous Dropbox thread. So from that perspective, HN is alive and well :). The level of cynicism of the discussion is overwhelming, frankly. I get it that some people don't like Musk because of his politics, but why should that prevent people interested in technology to…

Tesla isn’t a market leader in any of these things. It’s a decent shop, but not a leader in any of these things you’ve mentioned.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#312

Post by Fischgericht »

Sitting over here in Asia, I am doing a wild guess:

Most people in the western world have no clue HOW bad the crisis in our electronics industry caused by AI BS, tariff wars etc is.

When you wanted to get anything done in China as a western company, last year you might have issues to have China allow EXPORT. For example due to the pissing contest about Nexperia, a lot of really basic chips like USB controllers suddenly were forbidden for export.

And since January 1st 2026, things got far worse: Now some standard connectors (that are, amongst others, used in cars) that are made in the USA can no longer be IMPORTED into China. Which means that you now can typically will have parts missing on PCBAs that you then have to re-solder with the missing US components somewhere else. And many don't have the competence for this anymore.

This is all just wild speculation.

And I am pretty sure that right now it will be next to impossible to source parts for such a complex product like a robot. I need grey market brokers locally in Shenzhen to get even the most basic stuff at insane prices. And a lot of stuff simply is no longer available at all, due to things like "Intel has replaced anyone with a brain with an AI, and now no longer is able to produce and chip embedded N150 CPUs from the US to China, because... how?".

Tesla is now putting in 4680 battery cells back into the Model Y. Years after they had discontinued the 4680 program. What does that mean? They are using up whatever parts they still have, like everybody else in the electronics industry is now doing.

Good luck buying a computer, phone, fridge, car or toaster in the second half of 2026.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#313

Post by disillusioned »

jcgrillo wrote: post #284
tombert wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My dad found it extremely amusing that Elon said "we just have to solve the 'AI problem' and we'll have robots doing shopping for us", or something like that. I can't remember the exact verbiage, but that was the gist. The word "just" is doing a lot of work there. Going by that logic: We "just" need to figure out cold fusion to have effectively infinite energy. We "just" need to develop warp drives to travel across t…

We "just" need to figure out the terraforming problem then we can all move to Mars and be interplanetary explorers. Imagine how cool it would be to have corporate leaders who had vision--environmentally friendly automobiles, cheap space travel, etc.--without the clammy snake oil grifter bullshit. Reality is cool AF . The things that are actually achievable are amazing. We don't need to spout nonsense to do great thin…

The Mars obsession absolutely blows me away. Like, he's obviously read KSR's Red Mars. He's obviously aware of the conditions out there. Mars is a fuckin' bummer. It is absolutely hostile to human life. Sure, we'll land people there, and maybe set up some sort of station if we really want to throw a few trillion dollars away from actual problems here on earth... but it's not going to be pleasant. Not anytime, ever. The gravity sucks. The dust and fines suck. The storms suck. And last for months. The temperatures suck. There's no "outside". There's no trivial way to generate power at scale. There's no magnetosphere, so you'll get cancer. The soil is poisonous.

Elon's stuck with this 12-year-old-boy absurdity about "becoming interplanetary to save the species" as if Mars could ever be a practical lifeboat when we inevitably drive the planet into the ground or a meteor hits. It's... absurd, puerile fantasy.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#314

Post by lacker »

riffraff wrote: post #304
vannevar wrote: post #29

The next shoe to drop will be shifting Model Y production from Fremont to Austin. Fremont will make Model 3s. Austin will make Model Ys and Robotaxis/2s. Cybertruck will be canceled. None of the Tesla plants will be making robots at any scale for many years.

Do you expect the demand for Tesla's robotaxis to be high? I don't see it.

If they actually worked right now, the demand would be high. Demand is certainly high for Waymos. Even if they worked worse than a Waymo I think the demand would still be very high. But it's hard to tell if (or when) it will work well enough to actually be a real product.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#315

Post by loeg »

Retric wrote: post #245
laughing_man wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk's goal all along was to get away from boutique production. He wants to sell millions of cheaper cars, not thousands of cars for wealthy people. Not sure it's going to work out. Without some big jumps in battery tech, EVs are going to be difficult to sell without subsidies.

Musk would love to be selling several billion dollars per year of model S/X sales, the issue is they aren’t that competitive with other cars in the luxury segment thus the falling sales numbers. Tesla’s doesn’t really have a complex strategy at this point, they are getting squeezed out of the high end by legacy automakers where their lower cost batteries don’t matter as much. They are absolutely fucked on the low end…

What's their competition on the high end? Porsche, Cadillac? Do Rivian or Genesis count?

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#316

Post by bayindirh »

The elephant Tesla mocked has run, and stomped over them. Now there comes the pivot.

While "The old auto establishment" is not a benevolent structure, they proved that experience is something earned with time and doing things. Corporate knowledge and memory is real, and you can't beat it with brute force.

They started the change, but they failed to keep up with the pace. Also hubris, greed and monies.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#317

Post by tw04 »

jopsen wrote: post #306
toomuchtodo wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla got the job done, which was empower Musk, not manufacture EVs at scale. The stock is the product.

> The stock is the product. Musk reeks of scam. But for a stock pump and dumb scheme there sure are a lot of teslas on the road.

Tesla sold 1.7M cars in 2024. Toyota sold 11.1M cars in 2024.

Tesla’s current market cap is $1.43T. Toyota’s current market cap is $354B.

There really aren’t that many teslas on the road, and their sales are declining.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#318

Post by raincole »

bhouston wrote: post #43

Tesla is a meme stock in a similar manner to GME. You cannot bet against them even if they have incredibly unsure future prospectives because there are too many believers who will buy any dips.

There is no such thing as "meme stock." It's literally just how stock market is since forever. But every generation thinks they are so special that they have to coin new terms for the oldest things.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#319

Post by JasonBorne »

riffraff wrote: post #304
vannevar wrote: post #29

The next shoe to drop will be shifting Model Y production from Fremont to Austin. Fremont will make Model 3s. Austin will make Model Ys and Robotaxis/2s. Cybertruck will be canceled. None of the Tesla plants will be making robots at any scale for many years.

Do you expect the demand for Tesla's robotaxis to be high? I don't see it.

Of course it will be high. Transit is a huge market. They would just need a small share of Uber, lyft, regular taxis, public transit.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#320

Post by tw04 »

loeg wrote: post #315
Retric wrote: post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk would love to be selling several billion dollars per year of model S/X sales, the issue is they aren’t that competitive with other cars in the luxury segment thus the falling sales numbers. Tesla’s doesn’t really have a complex strategy at this point, they are getting squeezed out of the high end by legacy automakers where their lower cost batteries don’t matter as much. They are absolutely fucked on the low end…

What's their competition on the high end? Porsche, Cadillac? Do Rivian or Genesis count?

Lucid runs circles around the S when it comes to build quality and features.
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